Brewed Buck Stays Calm, But Not Idle. Stability Mirrors Discipline, Not Necessarily Liquidity

Apr 26 , 2026.

The Birr (Brewed Buck) spent the six days to April 25 doing what often passes for calm in the official foreign exchange market. It barely moved. More than a month after the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) last held a foreign exchange auction, quotations against the dollar stayed tightly grouped, held in place by the near-universal two percent spread and cautious daily changes.

On the surface, the message was stability. Beneath it, the message was hesitant. Banks were not repricing the dollar aggressively, but the absence of auctions left the supply question unanswered.

Across commercial banks, excluding the Central Bank's zero-spread quotation, the average buying rate for the dollar increased from 154 Br on April 20 to 154.18 Br on April 25. The average selling rate moved from 157.15 Br to 157.27 Br. The six-day change was 0.1153 Br on the buying side and 0.1176 Br on the selling side. In percentage terms, the movement was tiny. In market terms, it was revealing that the official market did not break away without auctions. It edged forward through isolated step changes, fixed postings and a broad reluctance to show stronger pressure in public quotes.

Last week, the commercial-bank average was 154.12 Br on the buying side and about 157.20 Br on the selling side. On April 25, the average buying rate was 154.18, 1.05 Br above Nib Bank’s 153.13 Br, the lowest buying rate quoted.

Oromia Bank remained the premium outlier among the private commercial banks. It quoted 157.05 Br buying and 160.19 Br selling on April 25, the highest commercial-bank rates, nearly four Birr above the lowest commercial selling rates. Oromia Bank has long occupied the top end of the official cash market, though its movement last week was fractional, at 0.0153 Br on the buying side and 0.0156 Br on the selling side.

The sharper shift last week came from the Central Bank, which has become the highest quoted buyer, standing above all commercial-bank buying rates, including Oromia Bank’s, while still sitting below the latter's selling rate because commercial banks continued to apply the two percent margin.

This structure is uncommon, as it leaves the Central Bank appearing as the formal price leader on the buying side, while commercial banks remain restrained by spread discipline on the selling side. In a forex market that has gone more than a month without auctions, the Central Bank's movement may be the clearest signal in the table. The official reference point is being allowed to rise, but banks are adjusting unevenly around it.

The Central Bank posted rates that jumped from 156.83 Br on April 20 to 157.47 Br by April 24, and stayed unchanged on April 25. That was a 0.64 Br increase within the six days, far larger than the commercial-bank average drift, and a rare jump of about 0.90 Br from the previous week.

The big private banks did not move as a bloc. Awash Bank barely shifted, raising its buying rate from 154.1 Br on April 20 to 154.13 Br on April 25, a change of 0.025 Br. Its selling rate increased from 157.18 Br to 157.21 Br. The Bank of Abyssinia (BOA) moved more visibly, lifting its buying rate from 153.83 Br to 154.11 Br, an increase of 0.28 Br, while its selling rate jumped from 156.91 Br to 157.19 Br. That pulled BOA from the lower cluster toward the industry average.

Zemen Bank was more assertive last week. It began at 154.71 Br, already above most banks, and ended at 155.19 Br, crossing the 155 Br threshold by 0.19 Br. Its selling rate finished at 158.3 Br, second only to Oromia Bank among commercial banks. However, Zemen’s 0.47 Br buying-rate increase was not a rounding adjustment. It moved the Bank into a premium class, away from the broad group clustered between about 153.8 Br and 154.6 Br. The change revealed a stronger willingness to pay for cash dollars, tighter internal demand, or an effort to attract supply through posted prices.

Dashen and Wegagen banks took a different path. The first kept its buying rate unchanged at 153.17 Br and its selling rate at 156.23 Br throughout last week, leaving it among the lowest-rate commercial banks by April 25. Wegagen Bank also kept rates unchanged, but at much higher levels of 154.59 Br for buying and 157.68 Br for selling. Its stillness was not a low-demand signal but could be a high fixed posture.

The state-owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) posted 153.21 Br on April 25, up from 153.1 Br on April 20. Its selling rate changed from 156.16 Br to 156.28 Br. CBE remained closer to Dashen, Nib and Coop Bank than to the upper-tier private banks. Still, even a small move by CBE carries weight because it acts less like an aggressive competitor than a stabilising reference institution.

The market was split into clear groups. Oromia, Zemen and Wegagen banks formed the premium tier, joined by banks such as ZamZam, Gadaa, Lion, Amhara and Goh Betoch in the upper range. Awash, Abay, Coop Bank, Enat, Hibret, and Sidama banks made tiny maintenance adjustments. BOA, Zemen, CBE, Siinqee, Tsehay and ZamZam showed step changes. Tsehay Bank increased by 1.2 Br, from 152.99 Br to 154.19 Br, the largest increase among commercial banks. Siinqee Bank jumped by 0.91 Br, from 153.11 Br to 154.02 Br.

Addis, Ahadu, Amhara, Berhan, Bunna, Dashen, Development Bank of Ethiopia (DBE), Gadaa, Global, Goh, Hijra, Lion, Nib, and Wegagen banks showed no change in buying rates.

The low end was as telling. By April 25, Nib Bank was the lowest buyer at 153.13 Br, followed by Dashen at 153.17 Br, CBE at 153.21 Br and Coop Bank at 153.26 Br. The lowest reliable selling rates clustered around Nib Bank at 156.2 Br, Dashen at 156.23 Br and CBE at 156.28 Br. These banks looked less willing to advertise stronger dollar demand, or less ready to chase supply through public cash rates.

PUBLISHED ON Apr 26,2026 [ VOL 27 , NO 1356]