Birr Slips Beyond 150 Threshold as Banks Form a New Floor

Nov 29 , 2025.

The Birr (Brewed Buck) slid another notch against the Green Buck last week, but the more telling development was where the slippage occurred. Every commercial bank quoted above 150 Br to the Greenback on the buying side.

The big private banks, but Awash bank (Abyssinia, Dashen, Wegagen and Zemen), clustered around 151 Br, while a few outliers probed the limits at both ends. In the tightly administered forex regime, such small moves are often the clearest sign of pressure building beneath the surface. Mid-month rate sheets from November 10 to 15, 2025, had already hinted at weakness, with banks nearing, but not consistently over, the 150-Br line.

The period’s average daily high bid was 150.94 Br, while its low was 150.02 Br. That narrow channel left traders debating whether the psychological barrier would hold until year-end. Last week gave the answer. The barrier was gone. Buying quotes that begin with “150” or “151” was standard, and each day nudged the bar higher. The market has quietly set a new floor.

The spread between buying and selling remained in a wafer-thin 0.10-0.25 Br range, evidence that competition remains hemmed in by regulatory caps and that risk premia are being suppressed by the whims of monetary policymakers rather than dissipated. Abyssinia, Awash, Dashen and Wegagen banks tweaked their quotes by pennies, parking near 151.5 Br buying and 154.5 Br selling rates, the new mainstream.

The National Bank of Ethiopia’s (NBE) quote anchored the strip. Early in the week, it stood at 153.82 and 153.95 Br; by November 28, it slipped to 153.02 Br. The zero spread emphasised that the Central Bank is a reference, not a trader, yet that single downward tick was the lone sharp inflexion.

Commercial banks, by contrast, crept upward. Abyssinia edged from 151.45 Br on November 24 to 151.83 Br by Friday. The state-owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) moved from 150.52 Br on November 24 and 26 to 151.30 Br on November 29. These fractions translate into a steady dollar premium and, for importers, a higher Birr cost for every invoice cleared at the window.

Outliers sketch the edges of a choreographed market. Oromia Bank (ORO) was again the high-quote buyer, selling at 156.91 and 156.93 Br. Bunna Bank briefly tested a 1.33pc spread on November 26 before snapping back to the mandated two percent. Such tactical probes did little to shift the average but show how little autonomy banks possess.

Strip out the central bank and the late-week average lands around 151.35 Br buying and 154.3 Br selling. However, the glide was orderly, with 151.2 Br mid-week to 151.4 Br by Saturday, mirrored on the offer side. A controlled slide, not a rout. Within that glide, the four large private lenders stood out. On November 29, Abyssinia paid roughly 151.34 Br, Dashen 151.22, Wegagen 151.55 and Zemen 151.27, all in the upper half of the pack. Their forex managers were willing to bid for scarce dollars to defend corporate relationships despite the tight corridor.

Awash Bank was the odd man out. Its 150.91-Br bid sat below CBE’s 151.30 Br. For the country's largest private bank to trail the state giant was rare, revealing that Awash Bank was comfortable with its dollar pool, less exposed to import-heavy clients, or simply reading the rules conservatively.

Oromia Bank crowned the field. On November 29, it outbid the Central Bank, posting 153.86 Br buying and 156.94 Br selling. Against Cooperative Bank of Oromia’s (Coop Bank) 150.59 Br low, that was a spread of more than three Birr, material in a regime where the formal gap was capped.

Three tribes marked the market last week.

Price leaders such as Oromia Bank and, by design, the Central Bank. Oromia Bank used the top of the band to scoop up hard currency, while the Central Bank signalled official tolerance for further slippage. The mainstream herd, including Abyssinia, Dashen, Wegagen, Zemen and CBE, followed, shadowing the Central Bank and edging up only when needed to keep business. Awash Bank drifted toward the third tribe of the discounters. Coop Bank, NIB and a clutch of smaller banks hugged the bottom day after day, posting buying quotes around 150.5 and 150.8 Br and selling above 153.5 Br.

A few banks kept rates static for several days last week, then leapfrogged higher in a single adjustment, likely mirroring approvals that lag market changes. These quirks reveal each financial institution’s risk appetite more than they shape the currency’s path.

Against the November 10 to 15 baseline, the fortnight resembled an administered crawl downward. Once 150 Br was breached, expectations reset. Now the market eyes the following round number. Slow and steady moves can disguise growing stress. Nudging the official rate may ease today’s strain, but it also planted the idea that tomorrow will be worse. In an economy where dollar demand chronically outstrips supply, that belief can grow into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Whether the calibrated loosening buys breathing room depends on hard-currency inflows. If export receipts, remittances and donor funds stay thin, the creep will resume. Banks are likely to march in lockstep, each tick minor but cumulatively corrosive. Without a decisive improvement in supply, the managed crawl seems set to continue, one micro-adjustment at a time, leaving traders and importers braced for the day when the screens flip from “151” to a number beginning with “152,” a shift that would lock in a fresh psychological anchor for the corporates and ordinary households alike.

PUBLISHED ON Nov 29,2025 [ VOL 26 , NO 1335]