Calm on the Boards, Three Prices Beneath the Forex Market

Aug 1 , 2026.

The Brewed Buck spent the last week of July doing something foreign-exchange markets rarely get credit for. Almost nothing.

Beneath that calm, the banks split into clear camps. Some bid hard for dollars. Some tracked the National Bank of Ethiopia's (NBE) reference rate. A few left their boards untouched.

Leaving aside the Central Bank, whose indicative rate is not a retail price, the plain average buying rate edged up from 160.0758 Br a dollar on July 27 to 160.2767 Br on August 1. Selling moved from 163.2774 Br to 163.4822 Br. The Birr weakened by about 0.13pc over the week, about 0.20 Br for buying and 0.205 Br on selling.

Daily changes stayed small, with the buying average creeping up in steps of a few cents from 160.08 Br on July 27 to 160.28 Br on August 1, and selling from 163.28 Br to 163.48 Br.

Across 174 quotes over the last week, the averages were 160.18 Br for buying and 163.38 Br for selling. The average sat lower, at 159.8 Br and 163 Br. A handful of premium bidders pulled the averages up, but the typical bank stayed nearer 159.80 Br.

The absence of a forex auction by the Central Bank did not set off sharp repricing. Planned auctions for August and September, worth half a billion dollars in all, seem to signal coming supply. Banks have little reason to chase dollars before the timetable and shares are clear.

However, steady quotes do not prove liquidity. They show posted prices, not volumes, order books or queues for hard currency. Prices may hold because expectations are settled, or because access is rationed. Without actual deal figures, the two cannot be told apart. This is the first of three prices that fail to line up.

At the top sat three aggressive bidders. Abay Bank led on August 1 at 163.07 Br a dollar, ahead of Oromia Bank at 162.98 Br and Bunna Bank at 162.93 Br, less than 14 cents apart. Abay Bank led on five of the six days last week. Oromia Bank briefly passed it on July 28 at 162.92 Br, by less than two cents.

The Bank of Abyssinia (BoA), offered 160.24 Br on August 1, more than 2.82 Br below Abay Bank. Because every bank runs the same two percent margin, the selling order was identical, led by Abay at 166.33 Br.

The Bank was the best board for a dollar seller and the dearest for a buyer. Over the week it posted the highest averages, buying at 162.99 Br, then Oromia Bank at 162.91 Br and Bunna at 162.84 Br. On August 1, the three paid between 2.66 Br and 2.80 Br above the industry buying average.

Hibret and Zemen banks formed a second, milder premium group. By August 1, Hibret offered 161.39 Br and Zemen 161.37 Br, both more than one Birr above the industry average. BoA, Gadaa Bank and the state-owned Development Bank of Ethiopia (DBE) held the middle, quoting 160.24 Br, 160.35 Br and 160.13 Br.

Most banks clustered tightly, with 19 posting on August 1 buying rates between Ahadu Bank's 159.59 Br and Berhan Bank's 160.03 Br, a range of 44 cents. Despite differing ownership, size and model, the bunching points to price-following rather than independent pricing.

Among the five largest private banks (Awash, BoA, Dashen, Wegagen and Zemen banks), the average buying rate edged up from 160.09 Br to 160.20 Br, a gain of 0.11 Br, smaller than the industry's average. Wegagen Bank did not move, fixed at 159.8 Br. Dashen climbed to 159.8 Br and Awash Bank to 159.79 Br, while Zemen Bank made the group's biggest change, up 0.19 Br.

The lower end shifted more sharply. Tsehay Bank held the lowest buying rate from July 27 through July 30 at 158.49 Br. On July 31, it lifted buying by 1.50 Br to 159.99 Br. That single move, close to one percent, was the largest last week, producing more than four-fifths of that day's average increase.

Tsehay Bank's jump left the state-owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) with the lowest headline rate on August 1, buying at 159.03 Br and selling at 162.21 Br. Nib Bank followed at 159.28 Br, then Ahadu and Global banks at 159.59 Br and 159.62 Br, respectively.

Over the week, CBE held the lowest average buying rate at 158.93 Br, though Tsehay Bank, at 158.99 Br, still posted the week's low. CBE's place needs a caveat. It, and some private banks, pay top-up bonuses on certain dollar inflows that do not show on the boards. These vary by customer, source of funds and size.

The Central Bank's August 1 buying rate was 159.97 Br, about 0.94 Br above CBE's headline offer, the week's narrowest gap between it and the lowest commercial quote. On July 27, when Tsehay Bank ranked lowest, it had been 1.5 Br.

The Central Bank rate slipped from 159.99 Br even as the commercial bank average climbed by 0.20 Br, moving from 0.07 Br above the Central Bank to 0.29 Br above it. Yet its August 1 rate was only 0.0068 Br above the commercial banks’ average. The premium bidders, not a broad market break, opened the gap.

Four banks finished only short of 160 Br. Amhara, Hijra, Tsedey and Tsehay landed between 159.997 Br and 159.999 Br, each rounding to 160 Br. The pattern signalled threshold pricing, possibly to stay visibly under 160 Br.

Behaviour varied in how banks moved, as Ahadu, Global, Hijra, Anbessa, Nib and Wegagen banks did not change their rates. Siket and Enat banks barely moved. Awash, Abay, Abyssinia, Dashen, Sidama, Sinqee, Tsedey and Zemen banks made small crawling adjustments. Oromia, CBE, DBE, Gadaa, Amhara and Goh Betoch leaned on step changes.

However, Tsehay Bank was the outlier. Gadaa posted the second-largest weekly increase at 0.56 Br, then Hibret Bank at 0.32 Br.

The Green Buck was not surging against the Brewed Buck. It was creeping up on the commercial boards while the Central Bank rate barely stirred. The calm is real, but managed and split into layers. Three banks bid hard, five hold secondary premium ground, most sat near 160 Br, and several barely moved.

The August auctions will show whether this stability demonstrates genuine confidence, or a market simply waiting for dollars.

PUBLISHED ON Aug 01,2026 [ VOL 27 , NO 1370]