Dollar Quotes Rise by Inches as Banks Keep Margins in Line

Mar 14 , 2026.

The foreign-exchange market crept forward last week, but behind the drift, the demand for hard currency and the contest for confidence grew. Between March 9 and March 14, 2026, every commercial bank except one raised its posted dollar prices, moving the average buying rate from 153.38 Br to 153.62 Br and the parallel selling rate from 156.35 Br to 156.59 Br.

No single day produced a move larger than 0.25 Br, yet the corridor between the lowest and highest quotes stretched by seven Birr, exposing the tension between a policy-dictated crawl and market anxiety.

At the ceiling was the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE). Maintaining a zero-spread intervention rate, the Central Bank paid 156.75 Br on Monday, slipped to 156.31 Br on Thursday and rebounded to 156.76 Br for Friday and Saturday. At the floor, Global Bank sat immovable, bidding 152.63 Br and offering 155.68 Br. Abyssinia Bank mirrored the crowd, inching from 153.36/156.43 Br to 153.73/156.80 Br. Cooperative Bank of Oromia (Coop Bank) jumped from 152.74/155.80 Br to 153.06/156.12 Br, and Berhan, Bunna, Hibret and Enat drifted along the same muted slope, betraying a preference for group alignment over fresh price discovery.

Oromia Bank, long the market’s most aggressive seller, posted a 159.43 Br buying on March 13 and 14, above the mid-156 crowd. Yet its March 11 screen showed an abrupt retreat to 153.30/156.37 Br, likely a data mis-key rather than genuine capitulation. Wegagen Bank lifted its bid from 153.58 Br on March 11 to 154.54 Br the following day and held firm. Zemen Bank jumped earlier, from 153.82 Br to 154.55 Br, closing at 154.56 Br. Those moves placed Wegagen and Zemen a Birr above Dashen Bank, Awash Bank and the Bank of Abyssinia, pillars that chose slower climbs.

Dashen Bank’s caution illustrated the mainstream mood. It opened at a 152.25 Br purchase rate and tip-toed above 153 Br by week’s end. Awash Bank scarcely moved, finishing at 153.26 Br. Banks signalled ambition through headline numbers rather than spreads; most preserved the standard three-Birr gap, leaving the message in the outright figures.

The largest state lender, Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE), tried to split the difference. Its forex board on March 14 showed a 153 Br bid, about half a Birr under the industry average, but tellers lured dollars with a 10 Br bonus. The tactic pursued flows without appearing to lead to depreciation.

Because the Central Bank felt no such restraint, by Friday its bid of 156.76 Br exceeded the week’s lowest commercial offer by 4.13 Br. Those extremes carved layers. The Central Bank was at the summit, while a premium band led by Oromia Bank, with Wegagen and Zemen joining mid-week on the bid side. An upper-middle cluster (Hijra, Gadaa, Tsedey, Amhara, and sometimes Abyssinia) quoted high-153 buys and high-156 sells, with a core corridor near 153 and 156.40 Br, filled by most lenders, and Global Bank marking the floor.

Such stratification is uncommon in a market that was once moving in lockstep, signalling the tacit pact among leading privates is fraying.

The Brewed Buck slipped only 24 cents on both bid and ask across the six days, indicating demand, not a rout.

Ahadu Bank opened with the cheapest bid, 152.24 Br, and the lowest ask, 155 Br, before retreating. Global Bank then set the floor at 152.63/155.68 Br. At the opposite pole, the Central Bank and Oromia Bank widened the corridor even though few trades likely cleared at its tips.

A second curiosity lies with the state lenders. CBE’s off-sheet bonus showed how sensitive headline quotes have become. Moving the board by mere cents can reverberate from shop floors to the Central Bank. By paying above its screen, CBE tried to support importers and its own reserve position without advertising a bearish stance. Whether the gambit involved large volumes or symbolic crumbs remains unclear, awaiting fuller data. Meanwhile, the Central Bank’s willingness to outbid the market for six straight days sends a blunt message. Official coffers need replenishing fast, and policymakers will pay for it even at the risk of encouraging higher private quotes.

The fortnight ahead will show whether last week’s stratification was an aberration or a foretaste. For now, the Brewed Buck has slipped, not stumbled. Banks moved almost in unison, one cautious tick at a time, while their relative positions reordered. The choreography held, and the dancers changed places.

By Saturday, the market’s architecture was intact but taut. The Central Bank anchored the ceiling, private outliers pushed the frontier, middle-tier lenders followed at a respectful distance, and the rest clung to the crowd.

PUBLISHED ON Mar 14,2026 [ VOL 26 , NO 1350]