Banks Nudge the Birr, But Dare Not Let It Move

May 9 , 2026.

The foreign-exchange board's last week offered a deceptively quiet picture of the market.

The implied depreciation was 0.05pc in six days, an unmistakably slow crawl. The calm is striking because the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) has not held a foreign-exchange auction for several months. Without regular central-bank sales, a market led mainly by supply and demand would normally show wider differences among banks, tougher competition for dollar deposits and stronger upward pressure where liquidity is narrow.

Instead, the currency boards depicted a market set within a narrow corridor. Most commercial banks preserved the standard margin between buying and selling rates. Several left their quotes untouched for days. The official rates looked less like a market searching for a clearing price than like a system of cautious financial institutions making defensive, incremental adjustments.

Over the past week, the average buying rate was about 154.43 Br a dollar, and the average selling rate was 157.43 Br. Selling rates followed the same path, with one exception. On May 6, Berhan Bank’s unusual selling quote lifted the average to 157.51 Br. Without that outlier, the line would have been flatter still. From May 4 to May 9, average buying and selling rates crept by about 0.047pc overall. The highest buying quote increased by 0.51 Br, while the lowest buying quote remained unchanged. The highest-selling quote increased by 0.52 Br, while the lowest-selling quote remained unchanged. May 4 and May 5 were effectively identical, revealing how little movement the market allowed itself.

Yet the stillness at the centre concealed widening dispersion at the edges.

Oromia Bank remained the highest buyer throughout, raising its rate from 157.09 Br on May 4 and May 5 to 157.6 Br from May 6 onward. By May 9, its buying quote was more than 3.13 Br above the all-bank average and 4.46 Br above Nib Bank, the lowest buyer. Its selling quote also sat at the top of the commercial bank board at 160.75 Br. Oromia Bank was the most aggressive visible bidder for cash dollars, but also the costliest bank for customers trying to buy them.

Nib Bank occupied the opposite end of the market. It held its buying rate at 153.13 Br and its selling rate at 156.2 Br for all six days. It was the lowest buyer and the lowest seller on every board. For customers selling dollars, it posted the weakest price; for customers buying dollars, it was the cheapest counter. It revealed the limited appetite among its international banking managers for cash accumulation, dependence on non-price channels, or a deliberate choice not to compete through the market.

The state-owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) stayed in the low-rate group, though it moved more than Nib. CBE’s buying quote increased from 153.46 Br to 153.66 Br, an increase of 0.20 Br. Even then, it was about 0.80 Br below the all-bank average on May 9. However, the comparison remains incomplete because CBE, like some rivals, offers a top-up bonus for every dollar it buys. The posted rate becomes only a reference price, while actual competition shifts to bonuses, speed, allocation expectations and relationships.

The Central Bank’s quote belongs in a separate category. It posted 156.74 Br on May 4 and May 5, then 157.29 Br by May 8 and May 9. On May 9, its quote was 4.15 Br above Nib’s buying rate. But the Central Bank is not a retail counter in the same sense as commercial banks. Its number is better understood as an official signal than a comparable market offer. Its zero spread also lowers the measured average spread and obscures the near-universal commercial-bank practice of keeping a two percent margin.

Among the “big private five,” the story was caution rather than competition. Awash Bank moved by only 0.015 Br to 154.17 Br. The Bank of Abyssinia increased by 0.020 Br from 154.25. Dashen Bank ended at 153.99 Br, moving only 0.005 Br within the six-day sequence, although the broader weekly comparison shows a larger increase from the previous week. Wegagen Bank was unchanged at 154.59 Br, holding its buying rate for three straight weeks. Zemen Bank, the premium bidder in this group, moved from 155.52 Br to 155.54 Br, with a week-on-week move of about 0.34 Br.

The behaviour of this group is important because it shows where market power did not go. Wegagen Bank acted as a price anchor. Awash and Abyssinia banks made token adjustments that preserved their positions without signalling stress. Dashen Bank corrected from a low base but did not become a high bidder. Zemen Bank stayed above its peers, though far below Oromia Bank. The large private banks were not leading a repricing of the dollar. They were staying present while avoiding a bidding contest.

Between the extremes, a middle cluster, including Amhara, Goh Betoch, Lion, Gadaa, ZamZam and Berhan banks, sat above the core average but below Oromia Bank and the Central Bank. A lower cluster included Nib, CBE, Hijra, Siket, Coop Bank and Dashen. The outliers were Oromia Bank on the high side, Nib Bank on the low side, the Central Bank for its zero-spread structure, and Berhan Bank because of a temporary abnormal selling quote. On May 6, its buying quote stayed at 154.87 Br, but its selling quote jumped to 160.96 Br, creating a 3.94pc spread instead of the usual. It was the highest-selling rate last week, even above Oromia Bank’s 160.75 Br. The quote returned to 157.96 Br the next day.

Other moves were more modest. Addis Bank lifted its buying quote on May 8 from 154.17 Br to 154.47 Br. ZamZam moved from 154.55 Br to 154.73 Br the same day.

The Brewed Buck's official value, therefore, moved sideways, but the boards became more revealing. The gap between the highest and lowest buying offers widened from 3.95 Br on May 4 to 4.46 Br on May 9. The selling gap moved from 4.03 Br to 4.55 Br. Stability in the average masked modest divergence in bank behaviour. With no recent auction, the market has not broken, but its calm rests on small increments, standard spreads, cautious banks and off-board inducements.

PUBLISHED ON May 09,2026 [ VOL 27 , NO 1358]