Fortune News | Nov 13,2021
Jun 18 , 2022
By Bjorn Lomborg
A global food crisis is looming, so policymakers everywhere need to think hard about how to make food cheaper and more plentiful. That requires making a commitment to producing more fertiliser and better seeds, maximising the potential offered by genetic modification, and abandoning the rich world's obsession with organics.
Russia's brutal war in Ukraine is making less food available because the two nations have been responsible for more than a quarter of global wheat exports and big quantities of barley, corn and vegetable oil. On top of punishing climate policies and the world emerging from the pandemic, prices of fertiliser, energy, and transport are soaring, and food prices have climbed 61pc over the past two years.
The war has exposed some harsh truths. One is that Europe – which portrays itself as a green energy trailblazer – is highly reliant on Russian gas, especially when the sun is not shining or the wind is not blowing. The war has reaffirmed the basic reality that fossil fuels remain crucial for the vast majority of global needs. And the emerging food crisis now reveals another harsh truth: organic farming cannot feed the world and could even worsen future crises.
Long simply a fashionable trend for the world's one percent, environmental activists have increasingly peddled the beguiling idea that organic farming can solve hunger. The European Union is actively pushing for a tripling of organic farming on the continent by 2030, while a majority of Germans actually think organic farming can help feed the world.
However, research shows that organic farming produces much less food than conventional farming per hectare. Moreover, organic farming requires farmers to rotate soil out of production for pasture, fallow or cover crops, reducing its effectiveness. In total, organic approaches produce between a quarter and half less food than conventional, scientific-driven agriculture.
This not only makes organic food more expensive, but it means that organic farmers would need much more land to feed the same number of people as today - possibly almost twice the area. Given that agriculture currently uses 40pc of Earth's ice-free land, switching to organics would mean destroying large swathes of nature for less effective production.
The catastrophe unfolding in Sri Lanka provides a sobering lesson. The government last year enforced a full transition to organic farming, appointing organics gurus as agricultural advisors, including some who claimed dubious links between agricultural chemicals and health problems. Despite extravagant claims that organic methods could produce comparable yields to conventional farming, within months the policy produced nothing but misery, with some food prices quintupling.
Sri Lanka had been self-sufficient in rice production for decades but tragically has now been forced to import 450 million dollars worth of rice. Tea, the nation's primary export crop and source of foreign exchange, was devastated, with economic losses estimated at 425 million dollars. Before the country spiralled downward toward brutal violence and political resignations, the government was forced to offer 200 million dollars in compensation to farmers and come up with 149 million dollars in subsidies.
Sri Lanka's organic experiment failed fundamentally because of one simple fact: it does not have enough land to replace synthetic nitrogen fertiliser with animal manure. To shift to organics and keep production, it would need five to seven times more manure than its total manure today.
Synthetic nitrogen fertilisers, mostly made with natural gas, are a modern miracle, crucial for feeding the world. Largely thanks to this fertiliser, agricultural outputs were tripled in the past half-century, as the human population doubled. Artificial fertiliser and modern farming inputs are the reason why the number of people working on farms has been slashed in every rich country, freeing people for other productive occupations.
In fact, one dirty secret of organic farming is that, in rich countries, the vast majority of existing organic crops depend on imported nitrogen laundered from animal manure, which ultimately comes from fossil fuel fertilisers used on conventional farms.
Without those inputs, if a country - or the world - were to go entirely organic, nitrogen scarcity quickly becomes disastrous, just as we saw in Sri Lanka. That is why research shows going organic globally can only feed about half the current world population. Organic farming will lead to more expensive, scarcer food for fewer people, while gobbling up more nature.
To sustainably feed the world and withstand future global shocks, we need to produce food better and cheaper. History shows that the best way to achieve that is by improving seeds, including by using genetic modification, along with expanding fertiliser, pesticides and irrigation. This will allow us to produce more food, curb prices, alleviate hunger and save nature.
PUBLISHED ON
Jun 18,2022 [ VOL
23 , NO
1155]
Fortune News | Nov 13,2021
Commentaries | Dec 10,2022
Commentaries | Jan 27,2024
My Opinion | Mar 05,2022
Commentaries | May 18,2019
Agenda | Jul 22,2023
Viewpoints | Nov 26,2022
Commentaries | May 01,2020
Featured | Sep 28,2019
Radar | Apr 15,2024
Photo Gallery | 96580 Views | May 06,2019
Photo Gallery | 88860 Views | Apr 26,2019
My Opinion | 67149 Views | Aug 14,2021
Commentaries | 65753 Views | Oct 02,2021
Feb 24 , 2024 . By MUNIR SHEMSU
Abel Yeshitila, a real estate developer with a 12-year track record, finds himself unable to sell homes in his latest venture. Despite slash...
Feb 10 , 2024 . By MUNIR SHEMSU
In his last week's address to Parliament, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) painted a picture of an economy...
Jan 7 , 2024
In the realm of international finance and diplomacy, few cities hold the distinction that Addis Abeba doe...
Sep 30 , 2023 . By AKSAH ITALO
On a chilly morning outside Ke'Geberew Market, Yeshi Chane, a 35-year-old mother cradling her seven-month-old baby, stands amidst the throng...
Apr 20 , 2024
In a departure from its traditionally opaque practices, the National Bank of Ethiopia...
Apr 13 , 2024
In the hushed corridors of the legislative house on Lorenzo Te'azaz Road (Arat Kilo)...
Apr 6 , 2024
In a rather unsettling turn of events, the state-owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (C...
Mar 30 , 2024
Ethiopian authorities find themselves at a crossroads in the shadow of a global econo...
Apr 20 , 2024
Ethiopia's economic reform negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are in their fourth round, taking place in Washington, D...
Apr 20 , 2024 . By BERSABEH GEBRE
An undercurrent of controversy surrounds the appointment of founding members of Amhara Bank after regulat...
An ambitious cooperative housing initiative designed to provide thousands with affordable homes is mired...
Apr 20 , 2024 . By AKSAH ITALO
Ethiopia's juice manufacturers confront formidable economic challenges following the reclassification of...