Ethiopian Weighs Three Jets, Three Maps

Jul 4 , 2026. By BEZAWIT HULUAGER ( FORTUNE STAFF WRITER )

Ethiopian Airlines Group is preparing to finalise a firm order for 25 narrowbody aircraft next month, evaluating the Airbus A220, the Boeing 737 MAX 7, and the Embraer E195-E2. Lemma Yadecha, chief commercial officer, confirmed that the carrier is currently comparing the options to determine the growth trajectory of its 171-aircraft fleet. The decision outlines three distinct operational maps for the continent's largest carrier. The Boeing 737 MAX 7 is positioned for longer, denser sectors; the Embraer E195-E2 targets thin regional routes; and the Airbus A220 occupies the middle ground.

The Ethiopian Airlines Group is preparing to place a firm order for 25 aircraft next month, and the choice it makes will shape the next phase of its fleet for years to come.

The continent's largest carrier is weighing three narrow bodies against one another, the Airbus A220, the Boeing 737 MAX 7 and the Embraer E195-E2, each of which answers a different question about where and how the Airline wants to grow. The decision is a study in trade-offs for an airline that has 171 aircraft in operation, serving passengers and cargo.

The A220 offers the most passenger-friendly cabin and strong fuel efficiency on short- to medium-haul routes, which makes it attractive for thinner international routes and domestic flying. Aviation experts see the 737 MAX 7 giving Ethiopian a higher-capacity option and greater fleet commonality if it chooses to stay within the Boeing family. However, the E195-E2 offers a lower-capital-cost alternative with strong operating economics for regional routes and smaller markets.

"We’re comparing them currently," Lemma Yadecha, the chief commercial officer, confirmed to Fortune.

The technical gap between the three is clearest in the trade-off between range and fuel burn. The Boeing 737 MAX 7 leads the group with a range of 7,130Km, 13.2pc farther than the Airbus A220-300's 6,297Km and well ahead of the Embraer E195-E2's 4,800Km.

That reach is based on a total thrust of 238 kN and the widest cabin in the segment, at 3.53 metres, which allows for a maximum of 172 passengers. It is also the heaviest of the three, with a maximum take-off weight of 80,285kg and fuel consumption of nearly 3,047 litres an hour.

The Embraer trades range for the economy. It records the lowest fuel burn of the three, between 2,000 and 2,500 litres an hour, and although it is the longest aircraft at 41.5 metres, it is the lightest, with a maximum take-off weight of 61.5tn, about 23.4pc below the Boeing.

The Airbus A220-300 sits in the middle, burning between 2,200 and 2,900 litres an hour while matching Boeing's maximum operating altitude of 41,000 feet.

The final call, the Airline’s senior management has signalled, will turn on its wider strategy, weighing long-range expansion against lower operating costs, better fuel efficiency and reduced carbon emissions.

The three profiles trace three different maps. The Boeing suits longer, denser sectors, the Embraer the thinnest regional hops, and the Airbus the ground in between. Ethiopian has to decide which of those networks it most wants to fly.

The choice is sharpened by what a choice of Embraer would represent. If Ethiopian selects the E195-E2, it will be the first time the Airline adds the Brazilian manufacturer's aircraft to its fleet, a break from a fleet long built around Boeing and Airbus.

"We’ll decide the order by next month," said Lemma.

Embraer has made its pitch in writing. According to the manufacturer, the E195-E2 is “the most efficient aircraft in its category” and is “well-suited to expanding connectivity and increasing flight frequency across Ethiopia.

“The Pratt & Whitney engine has shown stronger reliability than on competing aircraft under African operating conditions,” said the company in an written response to Fortune.

However, Embraer declined to discuss the procurement further, confirming only that it remains in contact with the Airline.

Ethiopian Airlines intends to deploy the new aircraft on regional and domestic routes. Yet the order arrives at an awkward moment for the industry it must buy from.

The global aircraft manufacturing sector is struggling with a backlog of tens of thousands of aircraft. According to aviation experts, African airlines continue to face some of the longest delivery delays due to financing constraints, limited production capacity, and supply shortages.

An order placed into a queue of about 18,000 aircraft can wait years for delivery, and the longer the wait, the longer Ethiopian keeps older, thirstier jets in the air, paying the very costs a new fleet is meant to cut.

The pressure is financial as much as logistical. Supply-chain disruptions are projected to cost carriers more than 11 billion dollars in 2025, and researchers at the International Air Transport Association (IATA) trace the losses to four main drivers.

Excess fuel expenses, estimated at 4.2 billion dollars, are rising as airlines keep older, less fuel-efficient aircraft in service due to delayed deliveries. Maintenance costs are expected to increase by 3.1 billion dollars as ageing fleets need more frequent and costlier repairs. Engine leasing expenses, projected at 2.6 billion dollars, keep climbing as engines spend longer in the shop, forcing airlines to lease replacements at far higher rates, with lease prices up by 20pc to 30pc since 2019.

Surplus inventory costs of 1.4 billion dollars complete the tally, as carriers stockpile spare parts to cushion against unpredictable disruptions.

The four sums total about 11.3 billion dollars, and their impact extends well beyond the balance sheet. The same bottlenecks are limiting the number of aircraft airlines can deploy to meet rising demand. In 2024, passenger demand increased by 10.4pc, outpacing capacity growth of 8.7pc and pushing average load factors to a record 83.5pc.

The imbalance is expected to persist as demand continues to outrun available capacity.

Industry observers argue that the crisis derives from a fragile aerospace manufacturing base, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, raw material shortages, and persistent labour constraints.

IATA's report calls on original-equipment manufacturers, lessors and suppliers to work more closely with airlines to strengthen supply chains and close the widening gap between demand and production. Without decisive action, it warns, the slow pace of deliveries risks holding back growth at a time when appetite for air travel remains strong.

For airlines, prolonged bottlenecks threaten to raise costs, cap capacity and weaken profits. For Ethiopian Airlines, the calculation is complicated by the peculiarities of its own market.

Aviation expert Yonathan Menkir, a pilot who flies commercial and founder of the Aerospace Club, says the distinctive behaviour of domestic passengers, marked by high volumes of checked baggage, puts an aircraft such as the E195-E2 at a disadvantage because of its relatively limited cargo hold.

He argued that on limited regional routes, the Embraer's economics could be compelling, but a cabin of passengers whose bags fill and overflow the belly is a poor match for an aircraft built to carry people more than freight. That single trait can outweigh a spreadsheet, where an aircraft that wins on fuel burn but leaves paying cargo on the tarmac earns less than its efficiency suggests.

“Staying within the Boeing family brings real benefits through fleet commonality and larger procurement volumes, while adding a new type raises operational complexity,” Yonathan said. “A new model demands investment in pilot and technician training, dedicated flight simulators and separate maintenance inventories.”

“The choice, in the end, is less about which aircraft is best than about which fits Ethiopian's route map and its market,” said Yonathan. “The Airline's decision will ultimately depend on whether the long-term costs of training and maintenance outweigh the operational advantages each model offers in serving a domestic market with heavy cargo needs.”

PUBLISHED ON Jul 04,2026 [ VOL 27 , NO 1366]