New York Arabica futures declined by nearly 30pc as analysts forecast a global coffee surplus of 10 million bags the largest in six years. This production glut follows record-shattering harvests in Brazil, expected to reach 75.9 million bags, and an export surge from Vietnam. While maritime bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz briefly rallied prices, the influx of physical supply has reversed these gains. For Ethiopia, Africa’s largest producer, this environment grants international buyers greater leverage in price negotiations. The price drop poses a significant risk to national foreign currency revenues and will test the fiscal resilience of local exporters. The shift highlights the volatility of commodity-dependent trade and the necessity for Ethiopian exporters to navigate a highly competitive market for premium Arabica beans.

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