A Forex Auction Softens Pressure Without Moving the Boards

Jun 27 , 2026.

The Birr, the Brewed Buck, did not break in the forex market last week. It sagged across bank boards, revealing pressure rather than panic and leaving the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) with a hard message. Liquidity can be supplied without resetting the price banks post for dollars.

The average commercial-bank buying rate for the dollar jumped to 158.58 Br from 157.99 Br, excluding the Central Bank. The average selling rate moved almost in step, to 161.75 from 161.15 Br. In market terms, the Birr lost about 0.37pc of its cash value over six days. In political-economy terms, the movement showed the Central Bank leaning against pressure rather than putting it out.

The week turned on Wednesday, June 24, when the Central Bank injected 100 million dollars into the market through its second foreign-exchange auction in two weeks. Fourteen of the 30 banks took part, and at least nine won allocations.

Accepted bids ranged from 152 to 157 Br to the dollar. Yet the auction did not pull cash boards lower. By Saturday, the average commercial-bank buying rate was still above 158.5 Br. The Central Bank’s buying rate was 158.18 Br, 3.68 Br higher than Tsehay Bank’s unchanged 154.49 Br. The auction supplied liquidity and a reference point. However, it did not establish a new market centre.

That gap between auction prices and retail cash boards was the week’s main story. The Central Bank’s accepted range sat below much of the banking industry’s public buying board. The Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) ended closest to the auction ceiling, raising its buying rate by exactly one Birr, to 157.01 Br. But it remained below the private-market centre. On Saturday, the industrial average was 1.56 Br above CBE. Using the narrower industry average of about 158.89 Br, the CBE discount was closer to 1.87 Br. Its advertised top-up bonus complicates the comparison, for it could make the effective rate higher than the headline board.

The six-day unweighted industrial average was 158.29 Br for buying and 161.47 Br for selling. Including the Central Bank’s barely changed the buying average, at 158.31 Br, but pulled the selling average down to 161.37 Br because the Central Bank posts no spread.

For most banks, the spread itself told little. They kept the difference between buying and selling at two percent, making the selling board a mark-up over the buying board. The telling competition was in the buying quote, where foreign-currency cash remains scarce, sensitive and politically watched.

Oromia Bank remained the premium outlier. Its buying rate of 162.73 Br and selling rate of 165.99 Br were unchanged over the six days, keeping it above those of every other bank.

By Saturday, the next upper cluster was between 159.57 Br and 159.62 Br, including Wegagen, Global Bank Ethiopia, Berhan, Amhara Bank, Goh Betoch, Bunna, and Siinqee banks. Oromia Bank was not merely high; it was detached. Its buying quote was 4.15 Br above the commercial-bank average and 5.72 Br above CBE’s posted buying rate.

At the other end were Tsehay and Hijra banks.

Tsehay Bank posted the lowest buying and selling offers all week, unchanged at 154.49 Br and 157.58 Br. Hijra stayed still at 154.99 Br for buying and 158 Br for selling. They did not follow the centre upward even as lower-quoted peers adjusted sharply.

In a rising market, a flat low quote may signal limited appetite for buying dollars, weak urgency, a narrower client base, or confidence that posted rates do not determine actual foreign-exchange capture.

Between these poles, the middle tightened. Gadaa Bank raised its buying rate by 2.95 Br, to 158.82 Br, the largest increase seen last week. Siinqee Bank followed with 2.45 Br, while Ninb Bank added 1.87 Br. Zemen Bank lifted its rate by 1.08 Br. CBE added one Birr, while Dashen Bank’s jumped by 0.96 Br, Global Bank Ethiopia by 0.91 Br, and Hibret Bank by 0.86 Br. These moves narrowed their gap with the market average and pushed the overall average higher.

However, the largest adjustment came late. The average buying rate grew by 0.06 Br on June 23, 0.13 BR on June 24, 0.16 Br on June 25, 0.17 Br between June 25 and June 26, and only 0.03 Br on June 27. The pattern revealed a market that adjusted after the auction but was nearly flat by the end of the week.

The range between the top and bottom commercial buying rates remained wide at 8.23 Br, as Oromia and Tsehay banks remained fixed at opposite ends. But the middle tightened.

The standard deviation of commercial buying rates fell to about 1.50 Br on June 27 from about 1.73 on June 22. The average buying rate increased to 158.82 Br from 158.41 Br, while the average selling rate grew to 162 Br from 161.58 Br.

Large private banks moved cautiously last week. The market was split into behavioural groups as there was no disorderly depreciation on posted boards, only a managed crawl, a tighter middle and stubborn outliers.

The premium-sticky group, led by Oromia Bank and followed by Wegagen Bank, Global Bank Ethiopia, Berhan, Amhara Bank, Goh Betoch, and Bunna banks, held high boards or moved into the upper cluster. The controlled-adjustment group included Abyssinia, Awash, CBE, Dashen, Addis, Sidama, Tsedey and Enat. The catch-up group included Gadaa, Nib, Siinqee, and Zemen banks. The low-sticky group, led by Tsehay and Hijra banks, refused to chase the market.

There were anomalies, too. Coop Bank’s June 23 board was the clearest technical break. Its buying rate fell to 156.12 Br while its selling rate stayed at 160.27 Br, widening the spread to 2.65pc before returning to the two percent norm the following day.

The Central Bank’s sale may have reduced market pressure. It did not erase the premium in retail quotes.

Less than half of the 30 banks bid, showing that the liquidity operation was large but not system-wide. Banks buying dollars at an auction high of 157 Br and posting cash buying rates near 159 Br or above may be dealing with different markets, maturities, clients and costs. For banks, the buying rate is no longer only a service price. In a dollar-short economy, it has become a balance sheet, a liquidity signal, and a public index of confidence in the Brewed Buck.

The official auction shows one clearing range. Cash boards show another. Effective rates, after bonuses and access limits, may show a third.

PUBLISHED ON Jun 27,2026 [ VOL 27 , NO 1365]