Fortune News | Feb 28,2026
Aug 27 , 2022
By Christian Tesfaye
No one really can predict the future. The advances in collecting, collating and analysing large amounts of data are impressive. But they have not taken humanity as near to clairvoyance as was hoped.
Take, for instance, the predictions on the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The coverage all around was about doom and gloom. A potential nuclear strike being provoked was discussed; prices for a barrel of oil hitting 200 dollars; and famines in many places being caused by skyrocketing food prices.
The war was and continues to be ugly, but the worst did not happen. In fact, oil prices are below pre-war levels, as well as global food prices. Geopolitical tensions continue to simmer and food prices are still high by historical standards. But many dire predictions did not pan out. Consider even how every pundit agreed that Russia would take over Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, within a few days until it became all too clear that it had no hope of doing as such.
Or consider the repeated grim assessments of China’s economy. Capital outflows shortly after the war in Europe were supposed to crash the economy. Before that, it was the default by the major real estate developer, Evergrande, which was supposed to be the Lehman-Brothers-collapse moment for China. The country is obviously in a property market crisis, but it is not nearly the calamity it was suggested to be at the outset; not to mention, Evergrande is still standing.
The cherry on the cake was predictions about COVID-19 cases in Africa at the outset of the pandemic. The most morbid reports came from Italy first, with hospitals barely coping with the influx. If Europe struggles so much to arrest the disease, how would Africa, which has the poorest health infrastructure in the world, ever cope? Biblical levels of suffering, it was said, were in store for African countries.
The pandemic was no joke, and its economic and public health effects continue to be felt. But it was nothing like it was predicted to be by the analysts. It has been a struggle to explain why, but the pandemic has been much more manageable in Africa than in the rest of the world, especially considering there have not been full lockdowns.
Why are we so bad at predicting events?
One reasonable explanation is bias. Most of the time, we are expressing what may be based on how we see the world and not necessarily on how it is in reality. We make assumptions that fit our worldviews and ideologies. Even experts have a hard time maintaining an entirely objective stance. The philosophical debate on whether research could be fully objective should be settled by now. It is most likely not the case.
It is also true that most of us are pessimistic. Look at most estimates about events over the past few years, and it is clear that they portray most occurrences as being worse than is otherwise the case. We see a Hitler, an economic calamity or major war in every nook and cranny. It is not that things are not bad. It is just that they are not as bad as advertised – not as grim as the activists and TV channels that want to keep us glued to our screens claim.
It probably has to do with our biological evolution. Our brains are better hardwired to record and respond to potentially alarming developments than they are to good news, because the former could be existential. It is our fight-or-flight psychology at work. The problem is that it was not designed for a world where so much bad news is easily accessible.
Our obsession with data and its analysis makes sense. It is an effort to take subjectivity out of predictions. But this has proven harder than anticipated. We need much more data to map events accurately, including human’s psychological tendency to overreact.
PUBLISHED ON
Aug 27,2022 [ VOL
23 , NO
1165]
Fortune News | Feb 28,2026
Money Market Watch | Feb 28,2026
Fortune News | Jan 18,2020
Fortune News | Aug 03,2019
News Analysis | Aug 21,2021
Radar | Jul 04,2026
Radar | May 25,2024
Radar | May 23,2020
Sunday with Eden | Apr 13,2019
View From Arada | Sep 27,2025
Photo Gallery | 191279 Views | May 06,2019
Photo Gallery | 181067 Views | Apr 26,2019
Photo Gallery | 177734 Views | Oct 06,2021
My Opinion | 143336 Views | Aug 14,2021
Dec 22 , 2024 . By TIZITA SHEWAFERAW
Charged with transforming colossal state-owned enterprises into modern and competitiv...
Aug 18 , 2024 . By AKSAH ITALO
Although predictable Yonas Zerihun's job in the ride-hailing service is not immune to...
Jul 28 , 2024 . By TIZITA SHEWAFERAW
Unhabitual, perhaps too many, Samuel Gebreyohannes, 38, used to occasionally enjoy a couple of beers at breakfast. However, he recently swit...
Jul 13 , 2024 . By AKSAH ITALO
Investors who rely on tractors, trucks, and field vehicles for commuting, transporting commodities, and f...
Jul 11 , 2026
At a market stall, reform arrives without a communique. It comes as a higher transpor...
Jul 4 , 2026
In the goldfields of the Benishangul-Gumuz Regional State, Ethiopia's balance-of-paym...
Jun 27 , 2026
The federal legislative house rushed through one of the country's most contentious ho...
When Parliament takes up the appropriation bill, federal legislators will receive a d...
Jul 12 , 2026 . By BEZAWIT HULUAGER
When a WhatsApp notice told about 60 households at a gated community on the outskirts...
Jul 12 , 2026 . By BEZAWIT HULUAGER
The Addis Abeba City Administration has begun charging a municipal tax on every hotel...
Jul 12 , 2026 . By BEZAWIT HULUAGER
Bahir Dar International Stadium is nearing completion, and the people building it say...
Jul 12 , 2026 . By BEZAWIT HULUAGER
Federal regulators of the coffee sector are preparing a fund to shield growers and ex...
Loading your updates...