A looming humanitarian crisis is emerging, as erratic and underwhelming rainfall during the Bega season (October–December) has intensified food insecurity across large swathes of the country. Federal authorities warn that failing rains threaten crops, livestock, and livelihoods.

The Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission (DRMC), led by Shiferaw Teklemariam (PhD), issued an alert based on forecasts from the Ethiopian Meteorology Institute, focusing on nine zones in the Somali, six in Oromia, and several in the Southern Ethiopia regional states that are at risk. Over 10 million people in 12 districts spanning three regional states could be impacted.

The warning comes after the Commission’s Livelihoods, Early Assessment & Protection (LEAP) index revealed a notable drop in crop yields since October, particularly in the Bega season’s drought-prone zones. In parts of East Bale’s Rayitu and Seweyna districts of Oromia Regional State, officials have measured crop yield reductions larger than 50pc.

“The risks were identified through data analysis,” said Sahle Tefera, senior expert at the Commission’s Early Warning. "The alert was issued at the start of October in an effort to prompt early action."

The Bega forecast projects below-normal rainfall across southern and southeastern Ethiopia, compounding a history of repeated droughts in these areas. According to the Meteorology Institute, the rainfall shortfall will affect zones in the Somali Regional State and several areas in Oromia Regional State, including Borena, Guji, West Guji, East Borena, and East Bale. Southern Ethiopia’s South Omo, Ale, Konso, Burji, Derashe, and Gedeo are also listed among those at risk.

The Commission cautioned that crop and rangeland losses are one part of the unfolding crisis. Decreasing rainfall is expected to shrink pastureland and water sources, imperilling livestock and prompting disease outbreaks. With animal health and production suffering, human well-being is also in jeopardy. Shortages are likely to fuel irregular migration among pastoralists and further expand the number of citizens vulnerable to food insecurity.

The most severe impacts have so far been recorded in the East Bale Zone. According to data from the Commission and confirmed by the Ethiopian Red Cross Society (ERCS), Rayitu and Seweyna districts have seen the sharpest crop failures. The ERCS, after reviewing LEAP index data and rangeland indicators such as vegetation water requirement indexes, found that all readings were below long-term averages for these districts.

“The combined evidence of substantial crop reduction, below-average rainfall, and declining pasture conditions signals likely negative impacts on agriculture, water resources, and the livestock sector,” said Abraham Tesfaye, ERCS' focal person for anticipatory actions.

The Red Cross responded by activating the second stage of its protocol for drought early action for the dry season, focusing resources on East Bale.

“While alerts were issued for Somali and other zones in Oromia, early action was activated in East Bale due to budget considerations and the anticipated effectiveness of interventions,” Abraham said.

Before launching activities, the Red Cross officials consulted with local communities and institutions.

"We shared our analysis and forecasts, which communities confirmed reflected conditions on the ground,” he said. “Following a shared understanding, anticipatory actions were launched.”

On the ground in Seweyna, District Agriculture Bureau Head Hussen Haji Aliyi described the situation as dire. The District had planned to cultivate 46,000hct of land and managed to farm 45,000hct. However, maise and teff, local staples, did not survive. Food availability is now uncertain, and water shortages have become more severe.

“Due to rainfall shortages, crops failed to mature and didn't deliver expected yields,” he said.

The District has worked with the Red Cross to vaccinate livestock and distribute fodder in hopes of helping households weather the dry spell. According to Mekonnen Defesha, head of Disaster Risk Reduction at the East Bale Red Cross branch, 125,000 livestock have been vaccinated, and 3,100 households have received a quintal of cattle feed each.

“Anticipatory actions are being implemented to prevent potential damage,” Mekonnen told Fortune.