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Month: March 2020

Listening to the Pandemic

Posted on by Web Master

As of a few weeks ago, no one would have disputed that the most relevant and evident trend in the global politics of our times is “go national.”

Unilateralism and “zero-sum game” logic seemed to be the new normal: “For me to win, I need you to lose” and “Me first.”

These phrases seemed to be the unequivocal and almost uncontested trademark of this century. Moreover, it was a trademark that had no limits in terms of geography and ideology. One found it in many different shades, but on every continent, in every political orientation, across a wide range of institutional systems, and even within some international organisations. This trend seemed to consolidate by the day. There were very few voices trying to argue for a cooperative international approach, multilateralism, win-win solutions, a search for common ground and community-based policies rather than a purely individualistic vision of society.

Today, as the Coronavirus pandemic spreads across the entire world, putting many people in danger and shaking the foundations of our everyday way of life, we need to ask if this paradigm is likely to remain the predominant one.

As the pandemic strengthens, are there lessons we will learn?

Can a virus challenge some of the assumptions on which the current global political landscape is based? Is it going to make us focus on what really counts? On what unites us as humanity? Or is it going to fuel a sense of fear and suspicion among communities? Will it divide us even more, increasing the level of toxic rhetoric and behaviour that have already poisoned our societies and partially paralysed our collective capacity to act efficiently? Are we going to use this crisis as an opportunity to call some of the mistakes of recent years by their name, and adjust our trajectory at last to the compass of reality?

This pandemic is telling us several things loud and clear. If we are willing to listen, these are a few elementary messages.

Primarily, the global community exists. What happens far away has an impact here and now. A sneeze on one continent has direct repercussions on another. We are connected; we are one. All attempts to consider borders as dividing lines, and to classify people by nationality, ethnicity, gender or religious belief – all of this loses meaning since our bodies are all equally exposed to the virus, no matter who we are.

I do have an interest in my neighbour’s wellbeing. If my neighbour has a problem, it is also my problem. If I do not care for the sake of my neighbour, I had better care for my own sake. In an interconnected world like ours, the only effective way to take care of oneself is to take care of others. Solidarity is the new selfishness.

Just as importantly, globally coordinated solutions are needed, desperately needed, and this requires an investment in international multilateral organisations. If we think we can respond effectively to a crisis like this just by adopting national measures, we do what in Italy is referred to as “trying to empty the sea with a spoon”: a lot of work with no results.

To be effective, you need a systematic, coordinated effort at the global level, with adequate political and financial investments in the international multilateral setup that is required to monitor developments, respond to them, and prevent them from getting even worse. If we dismantle the credibility and capacity to act of international organisations, they will be less likely to be effective when we need them, and we will be the ones paying the price.

Science-based political decisions are also the only rational and useful way to go. Evidence is the only reliable point of reference we have. Luckily, we have been investing in science for thousands of years – across the world, no civilisation excluded, and for very wise reasons. Any distortion from scientific evidence-based decisions, due to short-term political or economic considerations, is dangerous.

We can also not afford to realise that health is a public good. It is not just a private issue. It is a matter of national –  and even international – security, and of economic prosperity. As such, it requires both adequate and sustained public investments and a collective sense of responsibility that every citizen is called to exercise. Avoiding contagion is not only a life-saving must for individuals. It is also a vital contribution to the survival of communities and the functioning of public health services, and ultimately, of the state.

Another fundamental lesson is that the global economy needs human beings to stay healthy. Investment in public health, science and research is an investment in prosperous economies worldwide. Production, consumption, trade and services – the basis of our economic system – need people to be healthy and safe. It is the economy, stupid!

Seventh, well-functioning democratic institutions are vital to our lives. We take things for granted until we risk losing them. The way in which decision-making functions (or not) is the ultimate test in times of crisis. If democracy is perceived as a burden that slows or even impedes effective and fast measures, the argument in favour of more authoritarian systems of governance will grow stronger, with all the negative implications this would have on our rights and freedoms. Making democratic institutions work is an investment in our health, our security, and our freedoms and rights.

Last but not least, nothing is more precious and valuable than life. We sometimes forget, especially when it is our own life in question. This is sound common sense – maybe it is time to go back to basics.

Every crisis can be used as an opportunity to learn lessons from the mistakes of the past, adjust policies, change course and fix things that we were not admitting were broken. It all depends on what individuals across the world decide to do, starting with those who have institutional and political responsibilities. But ultimately, all of us will need to decide.

Will this crisis be used for short-term individual gains, with the usual scapegoat exercise, or will it be a wake-up call to reality?

It is not idealism. It is pure realism.

The Plague Looms Large, Let’s Not Repeat History

Posted on by Web Master

The Bubonic Plague, also called the Great Dying or Black Death, is the most famous epidemic in Western history. Even though there were reports of plague in earlier centuries, none matched the suffering, horror and scope of the Bubonic Plague. It is said to have travelled from Asia in ships to reach southern Europe in 1348 and continued north to reach Russia by 1351.

The most fascinating aspect of this is the time it took the Plague to spread across Europe – four years – in sharp contrast to Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The latter is a great example of how scientific advancement and technological developments in communication and travel have changed the world for the better while at the same time rendering it vulnerable to epidemics.

The symptoms of this illness were buboes (swollen and oozing nodes), fever, dehydration and death. It sometimes had pneumonic presentation – bubonic lung infection. Its mode of transmission was human-to-human via droplets.

The cause at the time of the Plague was unknown. People hypothesized different causes. Some proposed that it was caused by atmospheric alternations from rare conjunctions of planets. Others saw it as a punishment for the corruption of priests. This actually was credible at the time, as there was a church split over rival popes. Some, of course, blamed the usual scapegoats: strangers, travelers and Jews. The truth was only discovered when the bacteria that caused it was identified in the 1890s.

Death, fever and a lung problems offer remote similarities with COVID-19, but epidemics seem to be in the habit of raising the temperature from the very beginning. The speculation of causes was probably understandable at the time, given the lack of scientific knowledge.

The enigma is that, in our case, we are still in the habit of speculation even if we know what causes COVID-19. At least, the hypothesis that it is a punishment for the corruption of priests over a church split among rival popes is not being considered. However, with the stories that we are hearing about how some of our people treat non-nationals on the streets of Addis Abeba, the habit of blaming travelers, strangers and minorities is well and alive.

Even if there were speculations about the cause, the Plague was unmistakably contagious. Doctors fled cities in large numbers. Those who stayed tried whatever they thought would work, even if many patients did not trust them. They started to use some protective coverings like gowns, gloves and beak-like masks.

As most patients were travelers, states enacted quarantine laws. The word “quarantine” itself comes from this era, a Venetian word for “forty days,” the number of days ships were told not to unload and disembark passengers. There were restrictions on freedom, including travel. If a particular area was found to have the disease, everyone living there was essentially put under house arrest until they died or the disease went away. Though social distancing is a far less drastic approach, quarantines are still how we are combating this disease today.

This probably is where we see a significant correlation between how the Plague is dealt with and how we are dealing with COVID-19. Today, we know exactly how the disease spreads and, thankfully, we have yet to see doctors and other health professionals fleeing cities. But we should not be surprised if we see such a pattern; we already are witnessing some people refusing to provide necessary care for suspected cases out of excessive fear. In our circumstance, where a dire shortage of personal protective devices, such as masks and shields, it will be unfair to judge if some health workers resist their own urge to care. The most important first step that we all should be taking in the early stages of this epidemic, at least in my opinion, is encouraging of health professionals’ motivation and resilience. It is indeed sad to see so many wasted precious masks, gloves and the like on the streets, while hospitals are trying to hold the line to prevent early and unnecessary use of such materials.

We have also witnessed the success of parents urging the interruption of medical training out of fear that their children may catch the disease, effectively teaching their children to flee when they are most needed. In other places and countries, health science students are proving to be a critical back up in the fight against the epidemic. Now, we have unknowingly dismantled our back up line. Those health professionals who will continue to try their best and commit their lives will be serving but may not entirely get the trust of people. For example, the person who escaped from the ambulance he was being transported in. The other important step in early epidemic response is focusing on building trust between each other. Health professionals need to be trusted so they can take care of our people. Our people need to trust that there is no conspiracy here; what they hear is what we hear too; and we all should trust the information that is given to us. There will be time to debate once this is all done and dusted.

Just as doctors during the Plague started to use some protective coverings like gowns, gloves and masks, we are using face shields in the midst of the mania around using personal protective equipment. In fact, I wrote this after a late return from work where I and a colleague witnessed the arrival of professionals to take samples of suspected cases. The first thing they did as they got out of their car in their white personal protective gear was take selfies! It was a nice scene. It was good to see young health professionals trying to capture the moment. So far so good!

The Plague affected up to a third of Europe’s population in the first wave and even more people in subsequent waves. The impact went beyond the loss of human life. There was no one to collect crops from the fields. The resulting famine and illness killed even more. It was said that the death of farmers and lack of farm labour forced the feudal system to collapse, opening up space for an urban middle class to emerge. This was while doctors and priests lost credibility for their apparent lack of control over the Plague.

The most important message we should take from the Plague is that COVID-19 could affect all and kill many, but we have a duty to lessen the suffering and death. COVID-19 will have subsequent waves. We have to be ready for this. Irrespective of how we come out of this pandemic, social dynamics will change as well as our role in society, for better or worse.

It is hard to fail to notice how our agrarian society, only slightly camouflaged by the advancement of science and technology, may be impacted in a similar manner in the instance of an outbreak.

One thing is clear. We must remain calm and do what we can to not allow COVID-19 to become a modern day plague for Ethiopia.

“History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce,” Marx said.

I disagree. History does not repeat itself. We, the people, repeat history. It is within our capacity to not allow ourselves to do so.

When we decide to be guided by unfounded emotions and do not follow the evidence in epidemic control, we repeat history.

In Tech, We Should Trust

Posted on by Web Master

The Second World War cost millions of lives, but one of its unintended positive contributions to the world was the advancement of science and technology in their utility for humankind.

Similarly, we are now in a war with an invisible enemy where each individual, along with governments, is fighting the spread of COVID-19. Hundreds of thousands have contracted the virus and tens of thousands have died. Europe has been the worst-hit region as a result of the pandemic.

Over the past two weeks, more African countries, including Ethiopia, have reported their first cases. There has been a steady trickle of Coronavirus cases ever since, and this has led to the lockdown of social lives.

Many speculations and predictions are being made as to what the world will look like in the post-COVID-19 period. However, what is even more interesting and what is supported by the evidence thus far is the emergence of tech as a key weapon in the fight against the spread of the diseases.

After the global outbreak of this pandemic, many new technological solutions that help in combating the COVID-19 virus have emerged. Existing and unused technological solutions have also been tested and are being utilised for treating and monitoring patients.

Governments and institutions are seeking help from big tech companies to invent various ways to control the outbreak. For instance, WHO partnered with Facebook and developed a Whatsapp channel that interacts with users. China has developed a tracking app in collaboration with Alibaba. Kenya is partnering with Google to provide 4G internet access for all during this period.

This is not to mention the many companies working on tech solutions, such as SpaceX, and many like it, that are 3D printing medical equipment such as valves for ventilators. Further, urgent funding calls are coming from governments and private multinational institutions ready to finance tech solutions.

We can already see the success and effectiveness of such tech solutions. The main reasons South Korea is succeeding in curbing the spread of COVID-19 and has managed to mitigate its causalities is this very same reason, the harnessing of technology in the fight against a pandemic, according to Jerome H. Kim, director-general of the International Institute for Vaccines.

Mechanisms that assist in testing, identifying and isolating patients are employed in South Korea successfully, according to him. He points out that the robust biotech startups in the country helped the Koreans to develop enough test kits in a short period, while other countries – even advanced ones such as the United States – are still struggling to develop sufficient testing kits. They have also used tools to track and map infected patients to control the spread.

Ethiopians have also understood the role of technology, with volunteers establishing Ethiopia’s COVID-19 response task force community aimed at developing tech solutions to combat the virus. The government has also established a special team to look into various technology solutions. We should all contribute to this initiative now, from suggesting ideas to developing the tools ourselves. Those with capital should also invest in short-term, as well as long-term, tech solutions for the health system.

It is inevitable that there will be a global economic downturn affecting all of us. The health sector will, however, be improved in ways that will help humankind survive the next pandemic. Technology will remain the key solution and will be utilised by all countries regardless of the type of political system. If this pandemic will leave behind anything positive, it will be the funding and innovation to come to the health sector from both the public as well as the private sector.

Despite all the uncertainties, it is better to have optimism and trust in humankind to survive this and learn from it. Let us keep washing our hands and remember that we will get through this together.

Imagining Our Way Out of COVID-19

Posted on by Web Master

If we all had mansions, adequate access to water and sanitation, constant power and internet connections and a government that could afford to subsidise paid leave for large swaths of the population, we would sail smoothly through the COVID-19 pandemic.

Unfortunately, most of the world is not this lucky. Ethiopia is the poster child for nations that cannot implement social distancing and public sanitation and hygiene policies at will. This is something that will be all the more evident as the number of cases inevitably rises, and containment becomes ever more critical.

Within just two weeks, the number of Coronavirus cases in Ethiopia has reached 12. It is not an escalation mirroring that of countries worst affected by the disease, at least not yet, but it is nothing to baulk at.

Commendably, the government is not sitting idly by. It has taken precautionary measures in its effort to curb the spread of the virus. The country’s borders have been closed off except for the transport of cargo, all passengers arriving in Ethiopia are being quarantined for 14 days and nightclubs and bars have been closed. Members of the civil service, except those considered essential, are also expected to work from home. It is a sort of paid leave, considering the lack of infrastructure or resources to ensure that they could continue to work from home.

These are aggressive as well as proactive measures that indeed need to be taken to escape the worst of the devastation of this disease. More importantly, these are the sort of measures overlooked by countries suffering from the worst effects of the pandemic – such as Italy and the United States – but were observed by Asian countries that were able to “flatten the curve.”

But while the measures the government is taking are necessary, they fail to consider the socioeconomic circumstances of the country. Many of the precautions are aimed at ensuring that social distancing and hygiene are observed. Self-isolation, telecommuting, washing hands and sanitizing surfaces, reduction of physical transactions and human contact are some of the methods and practices with which the spread of the virus can be beaten.

Many of these measures are costly and inconvenient – despite being crucial – even for developed countries such as the United States and European nations. For countries such as Ethiopia, they mostly do not even sound possible. This is because of the vast differences in socioeconomic circumstances between rich nations and countries such as Ethiopia.

In Ethiopia, households are often large. There is a high level of social mixing; inadequate access to water and sanitation; and a lack of adequate access to power and internet connections for telecommuting. It would be impractical to put in place policies aimed at enforcing social distancing and hygiene when neither the infrastructure (social or economic), the experience, nor the resources are there to support such a transformation.

In a deeply conservative country, how is it possible to limit gatherings in religious places and important social events, such as funerals? In a country where a third of the economy is informal, GDP per capita is below 1,000 dollars, and there is no fiscal space to subsidise large sections of the population being on paid leave, how can people stay at home?

“I earn eight dollars every day, and I have five people to feed. We will run out of food in a few days. I know the risk of Coronavirus, but I can’t see my children hungry,” said an Indian, in a dilemma we can appreciate, speaking to the BBC.

This does not mean that the current measures being taken are unnecessary. But effectiveness will be determined in how much the government succeeds in marrying such precautions with the socioeconomic circumstances of the country. Alternative means of dealing with the spread need to be brought to the forefront.

Credit is due to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) for articulating this very same demand in an opinion piece he wrote for the Financial Timesand for his administration’s ability to take stock of our unique context.

But a response to this dilemma will require more than asking for assistance from rich nations, especially since it may not come when we consider the absolute lack of global leadership.

Donald Trump, president of the richest country in the world, seems to be hinting at throwing his own citizens under the bus to avoid an extended economic lockdown. We should not assume that help will come from there.

What we can do is be imaginative. Instead of simply importing what seems to be working in countries far richer than Ethiopia and expecting assistance, we need to develop a comprehensive plan of addressing our peculiar problem.

We can start by focusing resources on the vulnerable groups of society. Paid leave and home isolation may be impossible to enforce on the population at large. Still, it is possible to ensure that those over a certain age limit and with underlying conditions can continue to get benefits while isolated.

It is possible to control and limit the number of older people that use public transportation and participate in gatherings without creating a financial headache or straying too far away from the important social events people will not be willing to avoid entirely.

It will also be possible to ensure paid leave for persons with underlying health conditions, as long as they have a doctor’s note, without bankrupting employers. And while it would be impossible to ensure access to preventive medical equipment for all, it would be possible to cover many of those that have vulnerabilities.

Anything less imaginative will not do.

Responsibility for Traffic Deaths: Why Blame Interests Less

Posted on by Web Master

It is just a few weeks now since we came to know of the passing of Caleb Meakins, an energetic young entrepreneur and an up-and-coming public figure in Ethiopia. Caleb was supposed to fly to London on the night of the accident, but his taxi crashed, leaving him with severe injuries.

It took hours before he was finally taken to a private hospital, where he was sadly denied treatment, because he was unable to pay the amount of money asked by the hospital upfront. He was rejected despite the fact that he was losing blood due to his injuries and was clearly in an emergency.

As a result, precious time was lost in taking him to a public hospital. Caleb died several days later due to complications from the accident.

Although the specifics as to what led to the occurrence of the crash in the first place are still unknown, social media and some close acquaintances have continued to blame parties believed to be responsible for this tragic loss. Some argued that the taxi hailing service provider he was using was to blame. Others blamed the hospital and medical professionals where Caleb was denied medical treatment. It is quite normal that specific targeting and blaming of individual parties would follow a fatal traffic crash. But one thing is clear. No matter who we blame, no matter where we point our fingers in search of a potential culprit, we will not bring back the lives of the thousands that lose their lives annually on Ethiopian roads.

This is not to deny the importance of blame. It has a huge role in shaping the way people behave and act in society. By assigning blame, we show people that we condemn their failure to act and behave in a certain morally acceptable way. Also, we blame for the consequences of people’s actions, or inactions, when these lead to some socially undesirable consequences, even if there is no legal responsibility involved.

Moreover, by blaming people, we expect recognition from the “responsible” party that they do not repeat similar actions in the future. It might also be that by blaming we expect some level of restitution on the part of those we deem to have behaved unethically or immorally.

Primarily, blame is mainly about past actions. In road safety, we blame drivers and medical professionals usually after something terrible happens. However, in addressing the public health problem of road traffic fatalities our major goal should be the prevention of severe accidents in the first place and not blame people after they have already been involved in a crash. The emphasis of road safety work should be on ‘what must be done now’ and not on ‘who should be blamed for fatal crashes’ once lives are lost.

If we put the prevention of fatalities and serious loss of health at the forefront, then our focus should be on what must be done to reach our goal. We had emphasized education, training and media campaigns so far, and I believe these measures should continue to be promoted. However, we can also go further.

There are some untouched strategies and interventions we can and should explore. Thus far, we have neglected the potential of road environment, vehicle safety and emergency service provisions. This is because we mainly think that the problem is the bad driver and that education and enforcement could solve the problem. We have failed to design a systematic solution to a systemic problem.

The second point about blame ascription is that it usually tends to be too reductive and simplistic. In road safety, it is quite common that when a crash occurs people tend to select one factor from among the many different contributing factors for the crash and present it as the “cause” of the crash.

Caleb’s accident and the ensuing social media rage is a good example. Many people are blaming individual parties they believe are the cause for Caleb’s death, despite the fact that his death is a result of many different factors.

What was the speed at which the driver was operating his vehicle? Was he drunk? What were the safety features of the vehicle? Does it have a seatbelt, airbag or other safety features that could have protected Caleb from the severe injuries he sustained? Was Caleb wearing a seat belt, if there was any? What was the nature of the road? Would this crash have been prevented if there was a different road design? Why was the emergency system not available to support him?

All of these factors could have contributed to Caleb’s death. However, it is usually drivers and medical professionals that are presented as the main culprits for accidents and the consequences that follow.

We do not see huge media uproars against the high number of unsafe cars, a great number of which would not be allowed on roads in many countries of the world, or against a government that allows the importation of vehicles with questionable safety standards. In addition, studies indicate that a significant number of traffic crash victims in the country die before getting emergency treatment; however, it is only seldom that we ask for the institution of effective and efficient emergency services. Nor do we usually demand safer road designs from the road authorities.

Evidence from countries that have hugely improved road safety shows that up to 95pc of road traffic injuries can be prevented by improving the non-human aspect of the road transport system, such as the vehicle, the road and emergency services. It is because of this that in many countries the major responsibility for road safety now rests on those who can make changes to these aspects of the road transport system rather than on individual road users.

Road authorities in these countries are responsible for instituting safe road infrastructure and vehicles have to fulfill strict safety requirements to be allowed on the streets. These are things that we should also emphasise in Ethiopia if drastic safety improvements are to be achieved.

Unfortunately, we are not doing that currently as we continue to blame individual parties after serious crashes have occurred. If we have to assign blame, let us blame those who could have done something to improve the state of traffic safety in Ethiopia.

Let us honestly admit that we are responsible for the death of thousands of Ethiopians by failing to do what we could have done to prevent their death. We all share the blame, but usually we are the blamers. This is, however, understandable, since it has long been asserted that people have a tendency of attributing success to internal factors and failure to external ones. We, as a society, have failed to ensure the safety of our citizens in the road system, and we blame others, usually the weak and the vulnerable, for our common failures.

Thirdly, moral blame, similar to legal liability, is usually assigned to actions intentionally pursued. This means that we do not normally blame people for unintentional actions or the consequences of such actions.

We blame people for consciously behaving in some ways even though there is no serious negative consequence that ensued due to the action or their way of conduct. This element of “intention” has become particularly important in road safety work. We know that speeding is a common factor in road traffic crashes, and we tend to blame drivers who are driving too fast. There are also legal penalties for traveling beyond the speed limit.

However, empirical research indicates that most people who are involved in speeding are not always doing it consciously; meaning that most speeding is not intentional. This has made it morally problematic for safety authorities to continue blaming drivers.

Rather, traffic authorities are now shifting to the implementation of new innovative road designs and car technologies to help drivers operate their vehicle within acceptable speed limits.

Good examples are technologies that physically prevent drivers from accelerating beyond a certain acceptable level of speed. This usually involves speed governing mechanism or automatic speed adaptation systems. Therefore, rather than always blaming drivers for unintentionally speeding, a good question to ask is what percentage of motor vehicles in Ethiopia have these safety features, and what is the government doing to make sure that these and other safety features are instituted in more vehicles.

In the Fight Against COVID-19, Everyone Should Enlist

Posted on by Web Master

The response and serious commitment by all to contribute to the resolution of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis is overwhelming. There is thus no better time to consider what worries us most and the recommendations we should follow.

“Hope for the best but prepare for the worst,” is a statement that we all have to think about.

The World Health Federation (WHF) has correctly warned that the poorest countries can become the most and worst-affected countries. In light of this, there are two important points that need to be brought to our attention.

It is not a matter of “if” but a matter of “when” the COVID-19 virus will severely damage countries such as Ethiopia.

The prevention methods taken until now might not be enough, but are they even the correct ones? What more can be done, and what should be done in the immediate future?

International coordination and measures to fight this pandemic have become a low priority. Now, the focus is on national measures. Each country is taking Draconian steps.

Rich countries such as France, United States and Germany are using every resource and capacity they have to accommodate what is needed to stem the pandemic. France has ordered the military not only to patrol the streets but has also ordered factories to produce drugs like Paracetamol, anti-septic, gloves and face masks. With social distancing being one of the measures recommended to prevent the spread of the virus, workers in many of these countries are allowed to work from home or take leave with pay.

Ethiopia should take bold actions based on verifiable data and tap into immediate war-time resources dedicated to the virus pandemic.

Can Ethiopia take the kind of measures taken by the developed countries?

Not entirely. Some similar measures are taken, and more might even be taken. The idea that Ethiopia has a young population that will be less affected by the virus should be examined critically. This is a dangerous argument, which is not constructive and will prevent correct measures from being taken.

New statistics arrive every day revealing that even small children are being affected and young people have started to die as a result of COVID-19. Our arguments and information should be correct, evidence-based and critically analysed. As much as there are good things provided by social media, it also has the capacity to be destructive, confusing the facts and putting society in jeopardy.

Some are not only negative but intended to provoke panic, fatalism and depressive behaviour among the public. At the time of this horrific situation, acting in a morally correct, ethically acceptable and responsible way is the least one is expected to do.

We should also make sure that the actions and measures taken should not be copied and pasted, haphazard and without due consideration of the expected outcome and possible negative consequences to follow. Ethiopia’s intellectuals, economists, natural and social scientists, researchers and people with skills will save lives. This golden opportunity to mobilise and appeal to them should be the order of the day. Research, clinical studies and data collection done by Ethiopians will help enormously and also define the future of the country. Knowledge and experience are the foundation and springboard for a country not only to prosper but also to survive this crisis. Isolating and discriminating against these is dangerous, destructive and tantamount to annihilating them, which the country cannot afford.

We should also ask if the country has plans to develop an exit strategy for after the pandemic.

When are the schools to be opened? What will happen to the missed school time? How will the economic burden on individuals, companies and the country be tackled?

These are serious matters that require experts to work on and provide a solid roadmap.

It is also time to consider the World Health Organization’s advice, which is to test every one suspected of having acquired the virus. This is crucial. The testing kit is not available as needed in Ethiopia, the number of trained health workers is inadequate and the infrastructure is not sufficient and organised to do the job. These are hard facts but should not be the argument for not testing suspected individuals.

Countries such as Sweden are not conducting tests for everyone. Instead, the authorities are strongly recommending people stay at home if they think they have the symptoms of the infection. The consequences are that individuals become unproductive. It paralyses the workforce and economic collapse becomes a possibility.

Sweden is rich and can afford to feed its citizens, maybe not forever, but for a long time. Ethiopia cannot afford to take such measures. It needs the workforce to be engaged daily. But testing can give the opportunity to assure individuals to continue to accomplish their normal tasks, reveal where the virus is and direct the fight to the correct places.

“One cannot fight a wildfire blindfolded,” as it has been said.

In this fight that we have ahead of us, what is expected of the various economic and professional classes, such as health workers, scientists, researchers, industrialists and wealthy people?

Health workers are on the front line, expected to fight the invisible.

We know the safety drill during commercial flights: “In case of emergency, put on your own oxygen mask before helping others.”

Similarly, in this situation, protecting ourselves before helping the sick is crucial. We should read and understand the guidance, be vigilant and be sure to act in ways that are proven to be effective by evidence. We are taking unprecedented risks and making heroic sacrifices.

Containment is the best preventative measure to be taken, but it will be impossible to prevent all cases. People are and will be infected, and our job is to save lives. Ask loudly for resources, seek guidance, learn from experiences and adapt to the different situations we find ourselves in.

Teamwork gives the best outcome. We have to combat anxiety, fear and panic and use simple, proven methods to give our service well.

What of scientists and researchers?

Our knowledge is mostly based on research conducted by non-Ethiopians, but the data and materials are ours. Let us try to change that. Organised data collection should be the source of our own research and clinical studies. This will be used in creating and developing measures suitable for our situation and conditions. We should strive toward a day when research is published that lists Ethiopians as authors and not merely the data collectors.

To the young Ethiopian researchers, particularly in the health domain, intensivists, anesthesiologists, epidemiologists, doctors with knowledge of infectious diseases, this is the moment to leap forward to be seen, recognised and given respect. They have the dedication, passion and determination to make history. They should be the ones to become game-changers. They should not expect the known scientists and researchers to offer us the front seat; they have to take it. It is our data, our people and our country.

The industrialists and wealthy people also have a major role to play.

No matter from where or how one acquires wealth, at a time of crisis of this magnitude, there is the obligation to help our fellow Ethiopians. The virus affects the wealthy just as much as it does the destitute. In Lombardi, Italy, an epicenter for the disease, both the rich and the poor have become the victims of the disease. In Europe, those who are infected and the large proportion of deaths are people who were on a winter ski vacation in northern Italy. But it has already found its way to the poor. This is an enemy that does not discriminate. It affects all.

Those with money to spare should support the health sector. Stretch a helping hand out to our young and ambitious scientists who can make a difference, pave the way for the future and lay a foundation for knowledge and skills to flourish in Ethiopia.

But it is from the government that much more will be expected. Early and drastic preventive measures, gaining the trust of the public by providing accurate information and accurate guidance are where it can best play a leading role.

China and Singapore, two countries hit early by the virus, have successfully won the battle, if not the war. China is currently ending the quarantine of Wuhan city inhabitants.

How?

Early preventive measures were taken. Resources are abundant, and healthcare was available to almost all who were affected. But the most important aspect of this success has been the trust the citizens of these countries have had for their governments. China is not a democratic country, but people are made to obey government instructions, orders, laws and proclamations. Singapore is a semi-democratic country, but the people have a tremendous trust in their government.

Hopefully, Ethiopia chooses the latter route. The measures taken by the government should be well-articulated and documented, and evidence-based information must reach the people. In return, the authorities must strive to convince the people to trust and rely on the government and its health institutions.

Indeed, the stakeholder in this battle is not only the government but society as a whole. Identifying, organising and specifying the assignments and tasks to be carried out is imperative. If everyone plays their role and takes it seriously, we will overcome this crisis with minimum damage.

Ethiopians are known for defeating external aggressors. Our ancestors showed us what it means to win a war. This is a different enemy, but it offers an opportunity to show the world once again that we are up to the challenge.

Let us unite and hold hands together. Gather our thoughts and minds and act responsibly. This is a war, and it needs strong and determined leadership. Our government cannot do it alone. Every one of us needs to contribute our part and, together, we shall prevail.

When it Comes to COVID, Caution but Also Some Sense

Posted on by Web Master

Contrary to standard economic theory, behavioural economics outlines paradoxical “errors” we commit in our daily lives.

We have a psychological makeup that leads us to have a higher fear of something, without consideration of how deadly it is, as a result of public panic and media-driven outrage.

We are prone to biases that impact our decisions. Considering the global pandemic of fear that the Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has unleashed, we could use a boost to our psychological resiliency based on the findings of behavioural economics.

Many studies have been conducted to understand the psychology behind how we make decisions. The research is fascinating and some of the authors of these studies have been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in economics.

Among the ground-breaking books written in this field is Freakonomics, by Stephen Dubner, an award-winning journalist from the New York Times, and Steven Levitt, a young economist at the University of Chicago. It provides a unique way of understanding economics. With its provoking and stunning insights, it shows how we fail to make smart decisions in our daily lives and turns the conventional thinking on its head.

The authors started with uncommon research questions in economics – some concerned life and death situations, which could be utilised to reduce our anxiety about COVID-19.

One of their most interesting illustrations is the following example: Which is more dangerous, a gun or a swimming pool?

A family in the United States has an eight-year-old girl, Molly. She has two friends, Amy and Imani. Molly’s parents know that Amy’s parents own a gun. Hence, they urge their daughter not to go to Amy’s house, leading Molly to spend a great deal of time in Imani’s house, which has a swimming pool. With their “smart” choice, Molly’s parents feel that they are protecting their daughter.

But what they did, statistically speaking, was not smart. A child drowns for every 11,000 swimming pools in the United States. With six million pools, it has been concluded that around 550 children under 10 drown each year, according to the figures the book provides.

The statistics on the death of children with a gun, however, are very small. The probability of a child being killed with a gun is one for every million guns. With an estimated 200 million guns in the country, around 175 children under 10 die annually. Swimming pools are thus more deadly than guns. Molly is in far more danger at Imani’s than at Amy’s, statistically speaking. But most of us will probably make the same error as Molly’s parents did, guided by conventional wisdom.

Similar research has indicated that one in seven Americans is at risk of dying from heart-related illnesses, while death due to a terrorist attack is one in around 46,000 people. The probability of a person being killed in a terrorist attack is far smaller than the chance that they will die because of a heart attack.

Despite this, a new survey conducted in 2016 shows that people are deeply fearful of being killed by terrorists. Media exposure and government policy regarding terrorism increases public outrage despite the lopsided statistics.

Dubner and Levitt have provided an equation to gauge which risks can appear more dangerous to individuals. It is a combination of hazard and outrage.

“The thought of a child being shot in the chest with a gun is horrifying, thus, outrageous,” they state in their book.

However, a child drowning in a pool does not attract public outrage. “When the hazard is high, and outrage is low, people under-react,” and in turn there is less panic.

This is due to the familiarity effect. We are more familiar with swimming in a pool than we are with gunplay. This familiarity phenomenon was further explained by another concept called the mere-exposure effect, a psychological phenomenon where people prefer something simply because they are familiar with it.

It is for these reasons that we should not panic because of COVID-19. It started in China and has now spread to most countries. Everyone is in panic mode at a level that defies logical interpretation. The virus, which originated in China, can be treated, results in mostly mild cases, has a lower fatality rate compared to past outbreaks. There are even patients on the internet sharing how they experienced and recovered from the illness.

We should not be panicking when we consider the data. This, though, does not mean that precautions should not be taken.

We should follow the special hygiene and safety instructions and precautionary measures. Additionally, boosting our immune system through the intake of more Vitamin C-rich foods to fight off the virus is also recommended.

We should act responsibly to curb the transmission of the virus to others. Given the scarcity of resources, we should self-isolate once we show flu-like symptoms and contact the authorities. Social distancing has been shown to be an effective tool for fighting off the virus and keeping it away from those that are especially susceptible, especially elderly people.

With such precautions in place, the low fatality rate, most cases being mild and high numbers of recovery, there is no reason for complete doom and gloom.

It’s Corona Time

Posted on by Web Master

A few days ago, I was at home listening to the radio and plotting ways of getting back at the power authorities for taking away the electricity at a time when most of us are forced to stay home as a result of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19). They left us in darkness for two days.

On the radio, a man called one of the stations and talked about how his wedding plans were falling apart as a result of the virus. He was wondering if there was a way he could still have the wedding.

He went on to explain how the wedding was special for his bride-to-be and her family, adding that he was considering using all the precautions such as gloves, hand sanitizer and face masks.

The host of the radio show interrupted him and said wearing gloves by itself was not a foolproof way of ensuring he would not contract the virus.

“As we use our hands to eat, and we cannot eat with our gloves on, you should consider postponing the wedding date,” the host insisted.

Coronavirus is holding us back from many special moments of our lives and ruining the plans we have made. We cannot even go to funerals to pay our respects. But this is the necessary precautions we need to take if we do not insist on the complete unravelling of our socioeconomic circumstances.

Here, there are many volunteers, mostly youth, playing a crucial part in informing and creating awareness of the disease. They can be found on TikTok, a social media platform where a great deal of related content, under the title “It’s Corona Time,” is appearing.

It is a reference to a song about a Mexican beer called, unfortunately enough, Corona. The music is incredibly catchy and sticks to the mind. We learn without actually feeling like we are being taught. We have to give credit to the stay-at-home movement of “vloggers,” as they are coming up with creative and entertaining content that creates awareness among the public. Humour in times of distress can keep people sane, at least for a while.

In fact, it is not all doom and gloom. No matter how we pride ourselves on being individualistic and self-contained, we all need some kind of human contact, whether in person or on some sort of platform.

It may be wrecking our economic and social lives, but the virus is at least giving families time to spend together, which neither parents nor children had before the global pandemic struck.

We should also not discount how it is cultivating in us a culture of hygiene. It is unfortunate that it took a pandemic to make us wash our hands properly and regularly.

This is not to say that we can afford to be relaxed about the pandemic. There is reason to be pessimistic about the spread of the virus, given how people are failing to adhere to the preventive measures that need to be taken.

Why are people going out instead of isolating themselves and staying put?

Many people are acting like everything has been put under control. It is admirable that people are walking around with gloves and masks, washing their hands at every stop.

But here is the irony. People wear face masks but still shake hands. They stand two metres apart from one another but sit jammed together in taxis. Some people wear the face masks back-to-front on their heads or are using sleeping masks to cover their mouths and nasal areas.

We cannot also forget people that scrub only their palms when asked to wash their hands.

We are not taking the virus seriously. There will be consequences if people keep saying “Leave it to God,” every time they are asked to take precautionary measures. We should indeed keep an optimistic outlook, but we should not leave it to fate when we could have taken precautions and prevented the spread of the virus.

It is crucial that we all stay informed and safe.

In Crisis, Human Dignity Shines Bright

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The terrifying fact about life is how little control we have, especially during times of crisis. It is comforting though to observe that, as many are realising, despite where we come from, we are all equal.

Watching the news has become unbearable. The Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) has led to hundreds of thousands contracting it and tens of thousands dying. The consequences to the global economy have not been something to baulk at either.

But as the world battles this pandemic, we cannot help but notice that humans are equal irrespective of their economic privileges. It is proving that humankind is indivisible. It is highlighting to us how we all need basic services and how every labourer is crucial to our society.

Loss of human life is painful, and people around the world are feeling a sense of loss and emotional pain as fellow humans are perishing at the hands of an invisible killer.

In the face of this global disaster, we have observed the best and worst sides of people, from those who are volunteering to come to the aid of their fellow human beings and those who are unfairly taking advantage of the crisis.

The current situation is yet another reminder for us to take a step back and embrace impartiality, to avoid the senseless hatred and discrimination we bestow on others based on race, religion, economic status or place of birth. Our energy and time will be of much greater use if we can concentrate on working to support one another.

Amid the crisis, a new horizon has opened. We are being reminded of the importance of ending human prejudice, the perception that one is superior to the other.

This is a disaster, by all means, but it has also opened up a new era to rectify discrimination and scrutinise our societal values. We must think carefully as individuals and support each other as a global community to effectively function as a society. A disciplined and civilised society creates a better world for everyone rather than hampering it.

It is unfortunate that as civilisation progressed, at least economically, it did not help people realise that all human beings, no matter their race, gender, religion or economic status, are equal. A crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic has given us an opportunity to reconsider our assumptions.

It has shown us that we care about our own lives and about those of our fellow human beings. It has proven the need to stand on solid ground and love one another.

All nations are indeed left in darkness on how to put a stop to this global pandemic. At the same time, we have proven how every human has similar desires and problems. We are witnessing how individuals and societies across the world are similar, whether or not they find themselves in developed countries.

We have practically seen that we all hold the key to create a stable world for everyone to live in, free from any harm and fear. Our leaders have learned that they cannot do anything without global cooperation and that when disaster strikes, no nation can stand on its own.

The pandemic has proven that those who believed their nationality, race or gender makes them superior to others are merely fooling themselves. Flawed cultural perceptions that propagate prejudice have practical lessons to take here.

As much as the pandemic is paining us all, it can also be creating a new order of the world where human dignity and the value of life is revered above all else. The situation is igniting the courage of ordinary people to stand up for human lives and dignity in the face of the global health crisis that continues to destroy lives.

From prosperous to developing nations, no one was prepared for the intensity of the bereavement we suddenly have to live with. It will not be easy to come to terms with the loss of human lives around the world.

Hope lies in the countless people across the world who stood up for fighting the pandemic, risking their lives. There have been wars and pandemics that devastated entire generations, and yet humanity, thanks to its most determined and rational, has persevered.

We will overcome this too. And if we are lucky, we would have learned of the importance and dignity of human life.

The Eco, a Promise toward Monetary Union

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For three decades, the Economic Community of West African Countries (EC0WAS), the regional bloc of countries in West Africa, has been drumming up its efforts to adopt a joint currency across member states. Established in 1975, the 15-country group was founded with the mandate to “create a single, large trading bloc through economic cooperation.” This dream seems to be closer to realisation than ever before.

Sooner than later, the countries could be swapping their currency for a new one, the Eco. As part of the group’s vision of a borderless and integrated region, the idea of a single currency or monetary union is a goal that dates back to the formation of ECOWAS.

The move to an integrated currency is seen as a policy to facilitate better trade, lower transaction costs and realise the bloc’s vision of a fully integrated economic union. Despite announcing the idea around the beginning of the millennium, the bloc has seen the target launch date postponed multiple times after it was initially set to come into effect back in 2003.

Currently, while seven of the 15 countries – Nigeria, Ghana, Cape Verde, Sierra Leone, The Gambia, Guinea and Liberia – have their own currencies, the other eight – Ivory Coast, Mali, Senegal, Niger, Burkina Faso, Guinea-Bissau, Senegal Togo, and Benin – use a common currency, the CFA Franc.

The adoption of a common currency also has an important political dimension to it. For eight of the 15 countries that use the CFA Franc, a move toward the Eco would mean letting go of the CFA. For these nations, the value of the currency is ensured by the European Central Bank. Since the CFA is pegged to the euro, these nations have lower interest rates and in general,enjoy currency stability.

However, to maintain the peg, these countries are required to deposit half of their foreign reserves with the French treasury, a policy that has been seen as limiting the monetary sovereignty of these nations. The continued use of the CFA Franc, however, has garnered criticism, as it is seen by some as a colonial tool still used by France.

The heavy French involvement and the restricted monetary autonomy of these nations over their own economy has served as a political impetus for African politicians to adopt a new currency and end the seven-decade tale of the CFA Franc, which is mired in the dark colonial history of the region.

Although it is set to launch this year, adoption of the Eco faces many challenges. From structural issues to volatility of the region, there are several concerns the countries are yet to face and address.

The effectiveness of a single currency lies on a foundation of economic alignment. As of now, only five of the region’s fifteen countries currently meet the single currency’s criteria of a budget deficit no higher than four percent and inflation rates of not more than five percent. Since there is a divergence in the stability and also size of the different economies in the group, it will be a big challenge to create alignment for the Eco to launch.

For the CFA Franc users, the nations also risk forgoing macroeconomic stability when changing to the Eco. A peg to the Euro is predominantly why these nations have a record of stability, and a move to the Eco could jeopardise that.

This is perhaps why eight of the 15 nations that use the CFA Franc announced back in December 2019 their decision to rename the CFA as the Eco. Ivory Coast’s president, Alassane Ouattara, alongside the French president, Emmanuel Macron, stated that several structural reforms in addition to the renaming of the currency were to take place. While some of the core issues were addressed, such as CFA Franc nations no longer being required to store half of their foreign reserves with the French treasury, there still remain concerns.

One important issue is that the new currency would remain pegged to the euro. This development has thrown yet another curveball at the overall adoption of a common currency within ECOWAS. For the remaining nations, one glaring question has been why the CFA Franc users chose Eco as the name of their currency despite the larger group having chosen to use it initially. Furthermore, there is the issue of what the new currency being pegged to the euro would mean to the rest of the nations and their economic sovereignty.

These structural issues, in addition to civil strife, corruption and high volatility in the region makes it unclear if the necessary changes will take place in the run-up to the launch date of the Eco this year.

For instance, violence has broken out in Guinea after a controversial referendum on a new constitution saw deadly protests taking place. With insurgents in Nigeria and Mali and now with the global crisis caused by COVID-19, the adoption of the Eco will most likely be postponed once again. This is an unfortunate circumstance in the creation of a single, large trading bloc able to boast greater economic competitiveness on the global stage.