Avocado Boom Faces a Bitter Harvest Despite Lofty Promises, Fragile Supply Chains

May 11 , 2025. By RUTH BERHANU ( FORTUNE STAFF WRITER )

Federal officials have unveiled a three-pronged allocation strategy for this year’s anticipated avocado bonanza. Of the record 18.1 million tonnes forecasted, half is earmarked for export, 40pc for domestic consumption, and the balance for industrial processing. The government's ambitious vision stakes the country’s hopes on a fruit that accounted for less than a tonne of exports last year, revealing a deep disconnect between aspiration and infrastructure.

At face value, the sheer scale of the leap — from 781Qtls exported last year to a 10,000Qtls target this season — is unprecedented. Yet, this optimism belies logistical bottlenecks, capacity constraints, and structural inefficiencies that plague the nascent avocado value chain.

“We've plans to export most of the avocado harvest,” said Mohammedsani Amin, deputy head of the Oromia Bureau of Agriculture. “Production is scaling up as we collect avocados from smallholder farmers organised in clusters.”

Yet, hard data remain scarce. A Ministry survey pegs domestic demand at roughly 80,000tns a year, a reminder that market knowledge is thin.

The year's export targets are more than a dozen times last year’s shipments. However, variety remains a problem.

“We currently export only one of the seven varieties we grow,” Mohammedsani said, noting that foreign buyers want fruit that most growers do not yet produce in quantity.

Since 2005, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and Israel’s MASHAV have worked with the Ministry of Agriculture to spread the Hass variety, favoured worldwide for its creamy flesh and thick skin. The program has reached about 2,600 farmers over the past four years and plans to help them export 100tns of Hass this September. It has rolled out modern nurseries and handed out improved seedlings, encouraging early results.

For researchers such as Abayneh Melkie of Debre Markos University, the weak link is post-harvest handling.

“Farmers don't know how to handle avocados after harvest,” he said. “This contributes to quality loss.”

He urged government-led awareness drives, more investment in refrigerated transport, expanded cultivation of export-friendly varieties and better packaging.

Officials are carving out cultivation clusters of 200hct to 300hct. On one 172hct block in the Ada’a and Lume districts southeast of Addis Abeba, in Oromia Regional State, 1,088 smallholders were tending trees supplied by public nurseries. The seedlings are free, and the farmers received subsidised soil and water tests. Those who want extra saplings can buy them for 50 Br to 120 Br from donor projects or private nurseries prized for reliable quality.

Farmers already feel the problem.

“Seedlings are expensive, and the current varieties need heavy watering and compost,” said Mengistu Tesfaye, manager of the Southern Ethiopia's Kayu Fruits & Vegetables Cooperative Union. “We also don’t have enough variety to meet market needs.”

According to Mengistu, intermediaries often dump ripe and unripe fruit together in flimsy sacks, bruising the crop.

“It ruins the fruit and sometimes damages future harvests,” he told Fortune.

Transport is another headache. Avocados travel best in cold trucks, but refrigerated vehicles are scarce. Even so, Mengistu said the Union has sold 55,000Kg this year, including 33,000Kg to a company operating in one of the industrial parks, and hopes to hit 70,000Kg by December. National shipments remain small but are inching up.

“Our exports have grown from eight to 14tns in two years,” said Wale Getaneh, project coordinator at the Ethiopian Horticulture Producer Exporters Association.

Prices rose to 5.7 dollars a kilogram from 3.6 dollars. An eight-tonne sea consignment recently left for Rotterdam, the Netherlands, to test the waters. The trip took 36 days, slowed by delays in securing refrigerated containers, but the reception in Europe was positive.

“I advise the private sector to invest in avocado exports,” Wale said. “The government should offer incentives to make this sector attractive.”

Nonetheless, exporters with more than hope have found the path rocky.

Rahewa Mohammed, who has been in the trade for three years, sources most of her fruit from Mizan Teferi in the South West Regional State and Addis Abeba, shipping mainly to Dubai and other Middle East markets. She is active nine months of the year; February, March, and April bring no crop.

“Payment issues and amendments are my biggest challenges,” she told Fortune. “Sometimes, I ship 4,000Kg but receive less than that. I don't find out until it arrives."

It takes months for her to settle the difference. Documents travel with the fruit; she risks losing her investment if anything goes wrong. At times, she said, she is not paid at all.

Elias Gulilat left the business after a year. His Turkish buyer came to Ethiopia but left empty-handed because he did not get the variety he wanted.

“Even worse, we shipped to people who disappeared after receiving our produce,” he said.

Finding rogue buyers can be slow, even when organisations such as the Addis Abeba Chamber of Commerce & Sectoral Associations intervene. According to Zekarias Assefa, the deputy secretary-general, the Chamber steps in by contacting embassies or foreign chambers to track down errant buyers.

Ethiopia’s wager on avocados is bold, and the potential rewards are large. Demand for the fruit has surged worldwide, and the country’s highland soils and mild climate can yield three harvests a year. But bridging the gap between orchard and overseas supermarket will require better roads, cold storage, trustworthy trade partners and the overlooked skill of delivering a ripe avocado without bruises.

Backers of the new strategy say it can work if every link in the chain — from nurseries to shipping lines — tightens up. The government is betting that a humble fruit can mint millions in hard currency and still leave enough on local plates.

PUBLISHED ON May 11,2025 [ VOL 26 , NO 1306]

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