Brewed Buck Slips Quietly as Banks' Forex Boards Split Wide

Mar 7 , 2026.

The Brewed Buck barely moved over the five weeks to March 7, 2026, yet the stillness on the surface concealed a market growing more uneven by the day.

Banks’ average posted buying rate for the dollar was 152.73 Br on January 31, slipped to 152.59 Br a week later, then resumed its climb to 152.86 Br on February 14; 152.99 Br on February 21; 153.05 Br on February 28; and, 153.16 Br last week. The total shift, 0.43 Br, was less than 0.3pc. In a market where every decimal place is read for hints of policy, however, even such a minor easing carried meaning.

That meaning was not found in the average alone. It emerged from the widening distance between the banks that were willing to pay up for scarce dollars and those that preferred to hang back. During the six days last week, the average buying quote crept from 153.26 Br Br to 153.32 Br, while the average selling quote edged from 156.22 Br to 156.28 Br. Those aggregate moves looked almost calm. Underneath them, the gulf between the highest and lowest buyers widened to around four Birr, drawing a sharper line between banks flush with foreign currency ambitions and those evidently guarding margins or rationing supply.

At the top sat Oromia Bank, posting rates that placed it well above the field. Its buying quote opened the week at 156.25 Br and closed at 156.27 Br, while its selling rate moved in tandem from 159.37 Br to 159.39 Br. These figures were nearly three Birr above the week's average, a premium large enough to reveal a deliberate bid for remittance flows, export proceeds and diaspora transfers. Oromia Bank’s forex board did not appear to be an isolated pricing decision. It looked like a strategy made visible.

At the foot of the table sat Ahadu Bank, moving from 152.21 Br to 152.23 Br on the buy side and from 155.25 Br to 155.28 Br on the sell side. Dashen Bank, despite its market heft, was scarcely higher. By March 7, it offered 152.24 Br, the second-lowest buying quote among all banks and far behind peers with which it would once have moved in closer formation.

Between these extremes, the market was separated into recognisable layers.

One upper tier of commercial challengers included Zemen Bank, Wegagen Bank, Amhara Bank, Tsedey Bank, Berhan Bank and Siinqee Bank, each quoting half a Birr to a full Birr above the industrial average. They were willing to pay more, but not enough to match Oromia Bank’s structural premium. A thick middle cluster, where most retail clients were likely to encounter familiar pricing, comprised Awash Bank, Bank of Abyssinia, Abay Bank, Bunna Bank, Lion International Bank, Hibret Bank and Enat Bank. Their forex boards were near the average, shifting in cautious daily moves.

Then came the laggards, including Ahadu, Dashen, Nib International Bank, Goh Betoch Bank and Cooperative Bank of Oromia (Coop Bank), each posting offers of a Birr or more below the median and effectively conceding flows to more aggressive rivals.

The official sector made the picture stranger. The National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) posted identical buying and selling rates, offering 156.03 Br on March 2; 155.88 Br on March 3; 155.98 Br on March 4 and 155.99 Br on March 6 and 7. With no spread, the Central Bank’s forex board signalled an administrative purpose rather than a commercial one. Its weekly average buying quote of 155.99 Br was 2.69 Br above the industrial average, making it an outlier rather than an anchor.

The state-owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE), the dominant player in the market, was idiosyncratic in a different way. It kept its posted board frozen at 152.99 Br to buy and 156.05 Br to sell for three weeks. However, it is also adding a 10-Br bonus for each dollar purchased, implying an effective buying price near 163 Br, which would have eclipsed every advertised rate in the market. The contrast between what was posted and what was paid captured one of the market's tensions. The public board displayed orderly gradualism, while actual incentives showed at more intense competition for scarce inflows.

Another state-owned bank, the Development Bank of Ethiopia (DBE), held its buying quote at 152.83 Br through March 4, then jumped to 153.26 Br on March 5. Addis International Bank made a smaller but similar adjustment a day earlier. In a market otherwise defined by incremental daily movement, those sharper resets revealed that some treasuries held rates steady until a liquidity need or a large transaction forced a repricing.

Among the big private five banks, the divergence was striking.

On March 7, Awash Bank paid 153.23 Br, Bank of Abyssinia 153.27 Br, Wegagen Bank 153.57 Br and Zemen Bank 153.81 Br, while Dashen lagged far behind at 152.24 Br. The spread, 1.57 Br within a peer group that had once moved in near lockstep, amounted to a decisive break from earlier behaviour. The market was no longer moving as a bloc. It was fragmenting according to each bank's currency position, appetite and constraints.

The industrial average was 153.29 Br to buy and 156.26 Br to sell. Against that average, Oromia Bank’s buying premium reached 2.95 Br, while Ahadu Bank’s discount was 1.09 Br. The Central Bank remained 2.69 Br above the average with no spread. CBE’s posted rate appeared ordinary, but its reported bonus would have reordered the entire ranking had it been reflected on the board. What, at first glance, looked like a single market was, in practice, a layered hierarchy.

The past five weeks revealed that policymakers remain committed to a gentle glide rather than a one-off devaluation. The Birr weakened by fractions, banks retained familiar spreads and outward order held. Yet the widening dispersion among banks signalled stress in plain sight. Banks were unable to compete on price, risking losing the inflow of business. Those who bid too high risk paying up for dollars they may not be free to deploy.

The official narrative of calm adjustment still holds. Read more closely, and the system looks less settled. The Brewed Buck weakened only marginally, but the market around it split into camps, exposing where the pressure truly lies.

Part of that fracture appeared to come from liquidity stratification. Banks with steady remittance pipelines, stronger export franchises or dedicated diaspora products could afford to post richer rates. Others seemed more dependent on periodic central-bank support or walk-in retail flows and thus kept quotes low to preserve margins. Unless supply improves or quote bands tighten, the spread may persist, and with it the market’s tiered behaviour.

PUBLISHED ON Mar 07,2026 [ VOL 26 , NO 1349]