The Brewed Buck slid noticeably against the U.S. Dollar over the past week, revealing shifts in the foreign exchange market during evolving banking strategies and the Central Bank's interventions. Between October 14 and October 19, Birr's exchange rate fluctuated, accentuated by policy adjustments from the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE).
On October 14, buying rates for the Birr ranged from 112.39 at the state-owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) to 117.76 at the Central Bank. By October 19, these rates shifted to 113.13 Br at CBE and 121 Br at Goh Betoch Bank. The average buying rate over these six days settled around 116.32 Br, signalling steady upward pressure on the Dollar. Selling rates mirrored this trend, moving from CBE's 115.3 Br to 123.4 Br at Goh Bank, with an industry average selling rate of 119.08 Br.
Wegagen Bank emerged as a surprising leader, posting some of the highest buying and selling rates by week's end at 120.04 Br and 122.44 Br, respectively. This marks a notable shift, as Wegagen, previously a second-tier player, overtook traditionally dominant banks like Bank of Abyssinia, Dashen, and Awash banks. Alongside Wegagen, Goh and Gadaa banks offered competitive rates, indicating a reshuffling of market dynamics and capitalising on increased demand for foreign exchange.
Gadaa Bank stood out with one of the highest spreads between buying and selling rates, peaking at 12.92pc on October 14. This wide margin, indicative of aggressive pricing strategies, was short-lived after Central Bank authorities instructed the industry to keep spreads below two percent. Consequently, larger institutions like CBE and the Development Bank of Ethiopia (DBE) remained conservative, posting buying rates as low as 113.13 Br and selling rates near 115.39 Br.
Observers deciphered their restrained approach as an attempt to stabilise the forex market.
In an unexpected turn, Goh Betoch, Wegagen, and ZamZam banks displayed anomalies in their forex spreads and exchange rates. On October 14, Goh Betoch Bank reported an unusually low spread of 8.45pc, contrasting with other banks posting spreads above 10pc. By October 15, its spread reverted to two percent, complying with the Central Bank directive.
Wegagen Bank experienced its own anomaly on October 15, when its buying rate surged to 120.04 Br for a Dollar from the previous day's 112.85 Br. This jump positioned Wegagen notably higher than other banks, possibly indicating a response to a market shock or a temporary shortage of foreign currency. On October 19, ZamZam Bank reported a spread of 14pc earlier, a dramatic shift from the consistent two percent spread it maintained later.
Central to these shifts is the implementation of the Central Bank’s policy separating exchange fees from posted rates. Since July, banks were instructed to embed these fees within daily rates, obscuring the actual cost of currency exchange. The policy change introduced last week seems to have enabled smaller and mid-sized banks to close the gap with larger counterparts by offering clearer, more competitive rates.
The Birr's depreciation is also driven by broader economic headwinds, including persistent inflation and reduced foreign currency inflows. These put pressure on foreign exchange reserves, which cover only seven months of imports this year. The economy faces difficulties due to political instability, conflicts in major regional states, and the global economic slowdown, which affects trade and investment.
Market analysts who closely monitor these developments caution that competition among banks in the forex market could have implications for the financial sector. The aggressive strategies adopted by banks like Wegagen, Goh, and Gadaa may prompt others to reevaluate their approaches. Customers will likely benefit from increased competition as banks strive to offer more attractive rates and transparent services. However, aggressive pricing could lead to unsustainable practices if not managed carefully.
The coming weeks will be critical as the market adjusts to these new dynamics. Observers are watching to see whether established giants will respond to the challenge posed by up-and-coming banks or continue to rely on their established trading traditions.
PUBLISHED ON
Oct 20,2024 [ VOL
25 , NO
1277]
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