Creating an institution for the ongoing negotiations between Ethiopia and Egypt has been posited as one solution going forward with the issues surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). This suggestion comes following the inflammatory comments made during a phone conversation between the President of the United States and Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.

In the video making the rounds on social media since the evening of October 23, 2020, US President Donald Trump is heard stating that Egypt may blow up the Dam. The President is also heard urging Prime Minister Hamdok to intervene on behalf of Ethiopia, citing the recent aid cuts from the United States as a consequence of Ethiopia commencing with Dam filling.

Despite this, continued negotiations between Ethiopia and Egypt indicate the low likelihood of the situation escalating into war, according to Aaron Salzberg, Wilson Centre Global Fellow and director of the Water Institute at the University of North Carolina (UNC).

In a recent event at the UNC Centre for Middle East & Islamic Studies, the Director stated that the chances for the militarisation of the Nile are less likely than presumed by outside observers, as long as diplomatic discussions persist between the countries involved.

The institutionalisation of diplomacy between the two countries as a way forward was highlighted by the Director, who cited the example of the International Boundary & Water Commission, the formal body between the United States and Mexico on water diplomacy, as a means of dealing with evolving issues between two countries. This could also serve to improve regional coordination efforts so long as it maintains flexibility in rules and design to accommodate changing interests.

Institutionalising the process could additionally help resolve tensions between the two countries brought about by the hegemony of Egypt in the Nile basin, according to the Director. He also suggested that the two countries, with the role of an invisible mediator in the background, could resolve their issues amicably.

Ethiopia looks forward to commencing the negotiations, which have currently been paused, according to Dina Mufti, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

"We want the Nile River to be a source of cooperation and regional integration," said the spokesperson, who added that the country is open to any forums in the future. "But the equitable and rational use of the resource are two basic elements that require agreement before any other decisions."

The British-orchestrated 1959 Nile Waters Agreement, which Egypt still insists on referencing, allots the Nile water resources between Egypt, 55.5 billion cubic metres annually, and Sudan, 18.5 billion cubic metres, while completely disregarding Ethiopia. This treaty is regarded as colonial and exclusionary by Ethiopia.

"We aren't a signatory to that agreement," said Dina. "And Ethiopia is entitled to the use of resources considering that Abbay is the largest contributor to the Nile."