Does Biden's Move Elevating Kenya as America's Ally Upsets Ethiopia?

Jun 1 , 2024
By Hintsa Andebrhan

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Under President Biden, Kenya has been designated a major non-NATO ally, positioning it strategically at the forefront of U.S. interests in the Horn of Africa. This comes with expectations that President William Ruto will align with American policies in the region.

Historically, Ethiopia has been an anchor state and a strategic partner for Washington in the Horn of Africa. For 28 years, Ethiopia's political leaders and senior officials were regulars in international political meetings and economic forums organised by the West. Though questioned by some, reports of double-digit economic growth rates from the IMF and World Bank illustrated Ethiopia's role in U.S. strategic plans.

Washington invested hundreds of millions of dollars in Ethiopia to combat terrorism and stabilise the region. However, the effectiveness of these investments is debatable.

China's first African military base in Djibouti indicated Washington's faltering policies. Somalia's continued struggles with Al-Shabaab further exposed the limitations of U.S. strategies in the region. Now, the Biden administration has officially endorsed Kenya to spearhead its policies in the Horn of Africa and beyond. In a move that signals strategic planning by the U.S. State Department, President Ruto has emerged as a pivotal player in Washington's political manoeuvring in the Horn of Africa and across Africa. His ascent to power appears to be more than a mere coincidence, with U.S. Senator Chris Coons playing a vital role in the process.

His predecessor, Uhuru Kenyatta's endorsement of Raila Odinga was a clear signal of William Ruto's exclusion and betrayal. Despite serving as Vice President, Ruto found himself sidelined. For the Biden Administration, this presented a challenge as Raila Odinga, a senior politician who identifies himself as a democratic socialist, was seen as being at odds with America's interests in Kenyan politics.

In response, the White House dispatched a congressional delegation led by Senator Coons to monitor the electoral process in Kenya. The delegation met with key national leaders, including then-President Kenyatta, Deputy President William Ruto, and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga. Coons' visit was more than diplomatic as it was a strategic manoeuvre to ensure that U.S. interests were safeguarded. While in Nairobi, the Senator recommended that President Kenyatta continue to play a "constructive peacemaking role" after leaving office.

The diplomatic language directed Kenyatta to avoid moves contrary to American interests. Realising the cue, Kenyatta complied.

Politics in Kenya has been rugged. The International Criminal Court indicted both Kenyatta and Ruto for crimes against humanity related to post-election violence in 2007, which resulted in over 1,000 people dead. The cases eventually collapsed, with former ICC Chief Prosecutor, Fatou Bensouda, citing a campaign of intimidation against victims and witnesses. However, it is plausible to consider that American influence played a role in this outcome, keeping the possibility of reviving the cases if necessary.

While Washington's actions are driven by its political and economic interests, a growing need exists to reassess its approach. The geopolitical landscape is shifting, and America's traditional policies may be ineffective. The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, perceived by some as a Western strategy to weaken Russia, has destroyed Ukraine and allowed Moscow to assert control over the Black Sea. No less, the conflict in Gaza and Rafah is altering the Middle Eastern geopolitical situation, posing challenges for Washington and its ally, Israel.

China and Russia are also expanding their influence in the Red Sea region. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's recent discussions with Yemeni Foreign Minister Shayea Mohsen Al-Zindani in Beijing show the strategic importance of the Red Sea, compelling a reevaluation of U.S. policies.

The Biden Administration's endorsement of Kenya as a regional coordinator reflects the desire of Washington to have such reconsiderations. However, if it does not adapt its policies to respect the sovereignty and aspirations of African countries, it risks further geopolitical instability. Africans are increasingly disillusioned with war-driven policies and seek more equitable and respectful international engagement.

As the geopolitical chessboard evolves, the United States must consider new strategies to adapt to Africa's changing dynamics and beyond. The stakes are high, and the consequences of failing to adjust could be unprecedented.

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PUBLISHED ON Jun 01,2024 [ VOL 25 , NO 1257]

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