Conflicts Upend Growth Story, Plunging Development Goals into Jeopardy

Dec 22 , 2024
By Aemro W. Ayalew

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Deadly militarised conflicts have global relevance, and the international community has a critical role to play. Offering urgent diplomatic pressure and targeted support could help bring adversaries toward reconciliation, helping Ethiopians begin to restore their services, renew their partnerships, and reclaim their path towards a more sustainable and prosperous future, writes Aemro W. Ayalew (aayalew@nd.edu), a postgraduate student of global affairs who focuses on sustainable development and has conducted development research with international organisations on food and nutrition, entrepreneurship, poverty, and development.

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Once regarded as a rising economic star on the African continent, Ethiopia now finds its aspirations for sustainable development caught in a downward spiral as persistent conflict undoes years of hard-won gains.

The war in the Tigray Regional State in November 2020 lasted two years, and already derailed the country’s progress. Then, in August 2023, new violence broke out in the Amhara Regional State, pitting federal forces against an insurgency. These back-to-back conflicts have intensified instability and put Ethiopia’s efforts to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 at risk.

The 17 SDGs, adopted globally in 2015, were meant to help countries pursue a path that would eliminate poverty, ensure good health and education, promote gender equality, provide clean energy, and encourage thriving partnerships. They are often likened to a Jenga tower, a carefully balanced structure where removing one crucial block undermines the rest. In Ethiopia’s case, the block labelled SDG 16, which focuses on peace, justice, and strong institutions, has been wrenched loose by violence.

The consequences are apparent. According to the Ethiopian Economic Association (EEA), national poverty rates climbed from 23.5pc in 2015-16 to 33pc in 2021-22. Rural communities, heavily reliant on agriculture, fared even worse, with poverty shooting from 25.6pc to 47.5pc. In Amhara Regional State, now the epicentre of renewed conflict, poverty soared from 26.1 percent to 36.3pc, a bleak reversal for a country once lauded for its development trajectory.

Amid these clashes, food security has also deteriorated. Staple food prices, notably maize, have risen by over 40pc in key markets. The Amhara Regional State, a top supplier of such commodities, struggled to move goods through disrupted supply lines. A recent report released by the regional state's Public Health Institute found that out of 1.8 million children screened in drought-affected areas, over 378,000 faced acute malnutrition.

A few years ago, Ethiopia sought to push hunger to the periphery. Now, that goal looks worryingly distant.

Healthcare networks, another footing of development, have taken a devastating hit. In Tigray Regional State, by April 2022, more than 3,900 health facilities were reported nonfunctional, and only 16pc of hospitals were fully operational. More than half of the health facilities in Amhara Regional State were damaged. There have been shortages of essential medicines and the displacement of healthcare workers. Essential services became afterthoughts as ambulances became military assets and medical equipment was destroyed.

This breakdown undermines efforts to ensure health and well-being, which was once a core objective of Ethiopia’s policy agenda.

Children’s education has been similarly imperilled. In Tigray Regional State, nearly 1.39 million students were out of school in early 2022. The toll in Amhara Regional State appears even more severe, with over 4.1 million children, around 35pc of the region’s total students, out of school by April 2024. About 4,178 schools have closed, 300 have been physically damaged, and nearly 350 are nonfunctional. In certain hotspots, as many as 90pc of schools are shuttered.

Displaced teachers require psychosocial support, and the long-term ramifications for an entire generation’s education and productivity are incalculable.

Gender equality, a goal that had shown some progress, has also suffered a harsh setback. The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) reported an alarming incidence of sexual and gender-based violence in conflict-afflicted areas, particularly in Amhara Regional State. As health systems crumble, survivors cannot access essential services. Harmful traditional practices like early marriage and female genital mutilation are resurging, fueled by school closures and the collapse of advisory networks.

Water and sanitation systems, vital to public health, have been severely affected. In Tigray Regional State, only about four percent of water supply systems were fully operational by March 2022, and half of the region’s 9,213 water supply schemes were destroyed. In the Amhara Regional State, conflict and drought have disrupted WASH facilities, leading to outbreaks of communicable diseases. By 2024, cholera cases reached 4,845, with 84 deaths, a fatality rate of 1.73pc.

The electricity grid, essential for trade, communication, and healthcare, is also vulnerable. A March 2024 attack on a major 230Kv transmission line triggered widespread outages, affecting the Amhara, Afar, and Tigray regional states. Such incidents reversed the push to expand access to electricity, which reached 51pc in 2020.

Economic growth, once Ethiopia’s calling card, has also stumbled. In the decade beginning in 2004, GDP soared by an average of 10.9pc annually. But, the conflict in the north drained over a billion dollars from the economy. Industrial facilities shuttered, costing about 20 million dollars in monthly export revenue. Ethiopia’s delisting from the U.S. Africa Growth & Opportunity Act (AGOA) in January 2022, prompted by concerns over human rights violations during the war, slashed exports to the United States (US) from 525 million dollars in 2020 to 185 million dollars in 2022. It wiped out thousands of jobs and thwarted industrial expansion plans that once leaned heavily on trade benefits.

Income inequality has deepened, with the Gini coefficient rising from 32.8pc to 39.3pc by 2021/22. The conflicts have displaced more than three million people by the end of 2023. As business owners abandon their enterprises and families flee their homes, economic vulnerability and social tensions worsen. Tourist attractions, including UNESCO World Heritage Sites in Amhara and Tigray regional states, have lost visitors amid travel warnings. International conferences have been cancelled, development projects stalled, and foreign partnerships severed.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that the world is behind schedule on the SDGs, with only 12pc of targets on track and more than 30pc stalled or moving backwards.

Ethiopia’s internal strife has made a difficult global situation even worse. Without peace and stable institutions, no campaign for poverty reduction or healthcare improvement can succeed. The international community has a role, too. Urgent diplomatic pressure and targeted support could help bring adversaries toward reconciliation. Then, Ethiopians can begin restoring their services, renewing their partnerships, and reclaiming their path toward a more sustainable and prosperous future.

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PUBLISHED ON Dec 22,2024 [ VOL 25 , NO 1286]

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