A Quiet Forex Market Reveals the Limits of Monetary Reform

May 3 , 2026.

The Birr’s (Brewed Buck) market passed last week quietly. Beneath it, the week exposed a currency board moving less by price discovery than by administrative habit.

With no foreign exchange auction from the Central Bank for several weeks, commercial banks largely kept their rates boxed in. Most boards did not move at all. Those that did shifted by amounts too small to tell a market repricing, but enough to show that banks are testing the edges of a tightly managed corridor.

On Saturday, the Central Bank posted 156.74 Br to the dollar, a 0.73 Br drop from the previous week. Inside the market, the change was far narrower, with the official rate slipping from 156.77 Br on April 27 to 156.74 Br from April 30 onward, a fall of only 0.0349 Br. This was not a macroeconomic shift but a signal that the reference rate eased slightly while selected commercial banks made small upward adjustments.

Excluding the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE), the average commercial-bank buying rate edged from 154.22 Br on April 27 to 154.25 Br on May 2. The average selling rate inched from 157.31 Br to 157.34 Br. Over the week, the commercial bank average was 154.23 Br buying and 157.32 Br selling. The gain was 0.0322 Br on both sides, about 0.02pc. In practical terms, the Brewed Buck barely moved. In market terms, the direction of individual boards mattered more than the size of the change.

The spread said more than the rates. Almost every commercial bank kept a fixed two percent gap between buying and selling prices, making the selling boards move mechanically with the buying boards. At a buying rate near 154 Br, the margin produces about 3.08 Br between the two. The Central Bank remained the exception, posting zero spread, with buying and selling rates equal. Its quotation functions less like a retail cash board and more like an official reference point.

Oromia Bank remained the highest-priced commercial bank throughout the week. By May 2, it quoted 157.08 Br buying and 160.23 Br selling, well above the commercial-bank average of 154.26 Br buying and 157.34 Br selling. Its buying rate was 2.83 Br above the market average and nearly 2.93 Br higher when Oromia Bank itself was excluded. Yet pace was not the story. Its buying rate changed only by 0.02 Br. The anomaly was the level, not the movement.

At the bottom, Nib and Dashen banks remained the cheapest quoted banks. Nib was unchanged at 153.13 Br buying and 156.2 Br selling, leaving its buying board about 3.60 Br below the Central Bank's Saturday rate and 3.95 Br below Oromia Bank’s. Dashen Bank also stayed unchanged, at 153.17 Br buying and 156.23 Br selling. The state-owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) and Coop Bank remained in the low-rate group, though both adjusted.

However, Coop Bank made the largest upward move, lifting its buying rate by 0.35 Br and selling rate by 0.36 Br, a 0.2319pc rise on the buying side. Its sharpest adjustment came on May 2, when the buying rate jumped from 153.42 Br to 153.67 Br in one step. The state policy bank, the Development Bank of Ethiopia (DBE), followed with a 0.21 Br buying increase and 0.22 Br selling increase, 0.14pc. CBE raised buying by 0.15 Br and selling by 0.153 Br, a 0.0979pc increase.

The other upward revisions were smaller. Bunna Bank added 0.06 Br buying and 0.061 Br selling, a 0.0389pc buying gain. Bank of Abyssinia added 0.04 Br and 0.0408 Br, 0.0260pc. Zemen Bank increased 0.0253 Br buying and 0.0258 Br selling. Siinqee Bank added 0.0250 Br and 0.0255 Br, Awash 0.0220 Br and 0.0225 Br, and Oromia Bank 0.0203 Br and 0.0208 Br. DBE and CBE made their main changes earlier, on April 30.

Inertia remained the dominant behaviour. Sixteen of the 30 listed banks showed no visible change in buying rate. The banks that moved did so unevenly, mainly from low or middle positions. The pattern looked less like broad depreciation than controlled crawling at the margin.

The largest private banks were notably cautious. Awash, Abyssinia, Dashen, Wegagen and Zemen did not lead a general repricing. Their average buying rate on May 2 was 154.31 Br, up from 154.30 Br on April 27. Abyssinia ended at 154.44 Br buying and 157.53 Br selling after adding 0.015 Br, while Awash Bank reached 154.15 Br buying and 157.24 Br selling. Wegagen Bank was unchanged at 154.59 Br buying and 157.68 Br selling. Zemen remained the most expensive among the big private five, at 155.22 Br buying and 158.3313 Br selling.

CBE’s move was more visible but still not market-leading. It lifted its buying rate from 153.26 Br to 153.41 Br, while its selling rate jumped from 156.35 Br to 156.48 Br. Even after the adjustment, the state-owned lender remained among the lowest-rate banks. Its move looked like partial catch-up from a low base, not an attempt to set the market’s direction.

By May 2, the forex market sat in three broad tiers. Premium quote banks included Oromia, Zemen, Berhan, Wegagen, ZamZam and Gadaa. Most institutions clustered around 154 Br to 155 Br buying and 157 Br to 158 Br selling. Low-quote banks included Nib, Dashen, CBE, Coop, Siinqee, and Hijra banks. Behaviourally, the market was divided into premium outliers, high-but-static banks, low-price anchors, and marginal crawlers.

For buyers looking at posted cash boards, the message was restraint. The market’s centre of gravity remained around 154.16 Br to 154.26 Br buying and 157.24 Br to 157.34 Br selling, depending on whether Oromia’s high quotation is included. The NBE’s lower rate suggests authorities are not using the official board to validate faster depreciation. Commercial banks are not pushing aggressively higher, except for isolated outliers. The price is steady; the signals beneath it are fragmented. Posted rates show calm, while the distance between bank groups hints at pressure that formal quotations may only partly reveal.

PUBLISHED ON May 03,2026 [ VOL 27 , NO 1357]