Brewed Buck Continues to Slide, Not Jump, by Design

Feb 28 , 2026.

The forex trading days last week, ending on February 28, 2026, the cash-rate board for the Birr (Brewed Buck) behaved less like a free exchange and more like a controlled march.

Across the 30-bank panel, the average buying quote crept from 153.15 Br to 153.27 Br a dollar, while the selling quote edged from 156.11 Br to 156.23 Br. The average of all prints settled at 153.20 Br on the buying rate and 156.16 Br on the offer, with only 0.12 Br of slippage, but always downward. The picture is anything but accidental.

Almost every institution enforces a rigid two percent spread between its posted buying and selling rates. This convention locked the relationship between the two sides of the board. When one edge moves, the other follows on a leash. It also pushed most banks to move in formation, lest an asymmetric tweak exposed them to arbitrage. The board functioned less as a trading pit and more as a public signal of how quickly regulators and treasurers are prepared to steer the exchange rate lower without sparking panic.

Throughout last week, Oromia Bank sat at the ceiling, finishing with a 156.25 Br buying and 159.38 Br ask to the dollar, higher than even the Central Bank’s buying quote. At the opposite extreme, the identity of the floor evolved. Early in the week, Goh Betoch Bank printed 152.14 Br. By February 26, Ahadu Bank held the weakest bid at 152.20 Br, moving to 152.21 Br on the final day.

Even the laggards, then, were drifting upward. The market cast Dashen Bank in an uncomfortable light. On Saturday, February 28, Dashen Bank posted 152.22 Br, effectively hugging the bottom alongside Ahadu Bank. The rate jarred because Dashen Bank sits in the elite tier of private lenders that usually scrap for liquidity. Its peers paid above 153 Br: Bank of Abyssinia at 153.34, Awash Bank at 153.21, Wegagen Bank at 153.57 and Zemen Bank at 153.79. Across six days, Dashen Bank’s average buying rate was 152.21 Br to the dollar, nearly 1.6 Br below Zemen Bank.

The week’s most striking anomaly came from the policymaker itself. The National Bank of Ethiopia's (NBE) mid-week rate collapsed to 153.88 Br on February 24, the lowest sell quote in the entire week, before vaulting back above 156 Br the next day. No private bank produced a comparable swing.

If the Central Bank provided drama, the state-owned anchor supplied ballast. Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) kept its buying rate frozen at 152.99 Br and its ask at 156.05 Br, a spread right on the two percent mandatory template. Because CBE dominates payment flows and maintains the broadest branch network, a static posture steadies expectations. Exporters and importers would know what they will meet at the counter. Several competitors, including CBE, are sweetening transactions with bonuses (in CBE's case, a 10-Br bonus for each dollar it buys), a reminder that the market can understate the true clearing level.

Beyond the marquee names, clustering was the norm. Seven banks, including the CBE, left buying rates unchanged all week, evidence of tight internal targets or limited appetite for dollars. Most of the others tiptoed higher in 0.005 Br changes, a choreography that looked pre-agreed. A few dared wider strides. Cooperative Bank of Oromia (Coop Bank) added 0.566 Br, Goh Betoch 0.49, Berhan Bank 0.49, Siket Bank 0.45 and Zamzam Bank 0.28 Br. Siket Bank’s 0.43 jump on February 28 ensured the week’s final average tilted upward.

Even with those moves, dispersion stayed tight. Each day, the gap between the top and bottom bids inched up by four Birr. Because spreads are locked and quotes crawled forward together, realised volatility is almost invisible. A dealer waking to the exchange board each morning could encounter essentially the same grid, altered only by decimals. For policymakers seeking order, that is a feature, not a bug.

Daily averages confirmed the glide. Buying average slipped from 153.14 Br on February 23 to 153.26 Br on February 28. Selling tracked the same path. Remove NBE’s glitch and Siket’s leap, and half the panel shifted less than a quarter of a Birr over six trading days. The weekly standard deviation, already tiny, would shrink further. Such uniformity cannot arise in a free market. It unveiled the coordination, whether explicit or implied.

Why watch a market that barely moves?

Because the cash board anchors invoices for customs, remittance decisions and inflation expectations. A gentle crawl signals to businesses that officials fear a dramatic devaluation but tolerate steady erosion. That belief permeates price lists for imported goods and even wage negotiations. The corridor buys breathing space, yet it also builds pressure. Each unidirectional tick whispers that tomorrow’s dollar will cost more.

The market's gradual climb revealed that even conservative banks feel the squeeze. Bonuses, if widespread, imply a parallel market inside the formal one. Oromia Bank’s readiness to pay at the ceiling signalled a genuine scarcity (or at least a perceived one) among its clientele. For the moment, synchronisation holds.

Three gauges merit close monitoring. For a starter, the rigidity of the two percent spread. A break would flag urgency or opportunity. The Central Bank’s postings follow, with another single-day lurch would demand explanation. Lastly, Dashen Bank’s posture of an abrupt upward correction would signal changing liquidity conditions behind the scenes.

For now, the tale of the Brewed Buck and the Green Buck is one of measured surrender. The Birr softened by spoonfuls, guided by a protocol that prizes predictability over discovery. Oromia Bank defined the ceiling, CBE cemented the midpoint, and a rotating cast of cautious bidders sets the floor. Anomalies such as NBE’s mid-week dip and Siket’s burst stood out precisely because the system muffled everything else.

The market is performing as designed. It offers a reference price, reassures the public and gives policymakers time to manage dwindling reserves. But the anchor is drifting, and each centimetre lost is permanent. Over six ostensibly quiet days last week, the Birr never clawed back a single tick. In a country gripped by chronic dollar scarcity, even a whisper of depreciation carries weight. A cent here, a cent there, and the tidy corridor will eventually guide the currency into uncharted territory.

Like all the preceding weeks, last week read like a manual on slow-walking a currency. Inch it forward, project discipline, and assume the public watches the exchange boards, not the bonuses. Pressure is building. When it bursts, the shift will seem abrupt. Numbers whisper before they shout, for everyone watching the screen daily.

PUBLISHED ON Feb 28,2026 [ VOL 26 , NO 1348]