When Data Goes Missing, Horticulture Drive May Risk Wilting

Dec 27 , 2025
By Mekonnen Solomon

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A horticulture resource atlas, mirroring the manufacturing model, could overlay agroecological zones, water flows, road access, ICT coverage, and labour availability. With 18 agroecological zones, eight planned horticultural corridors, and ICT coverage reaching 97pc on 2G networks, the data already exists to align ambition with geography, writes Mekonnen Solomon (ehdaplan@gmail.com), a senior staff and horticulture export coordinator at the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA).

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Ethiopia's diverse ecological zones, stretching from fertile highlands to sunny valleys, are poised to deliver more than subsistence farming. With the right strategy, these regions could serve as a platform for exports to Europe and the Middle East, creating jobs and increasing foreign earnings.

The country is on the verge of a horticultural revolution that could change its place in the global agricultural market. But unlocking this potential requires more than hard work in the fields. It calls for modern tools and strategic planning.

I have seen firsthand how powerful geospatial data can be. Developed through a partnership between the Ministry of Industry and the World Bank, this Atlas provides a detailed blueprint for the manufacturing sector, mapping resources and infrastructure in real time. A similar approach, if applied to the horticulture sector within the Ministry of Agriculture, could help Ethiopia achieve the ambitious goals set out in its national horticulture strategy. Those goals are ambitious by any measure.

Ethiopia plans to increase the horticulture sector’s contribution to GDP from 4.5pc to 12pc; raise foreign exchange earnings from 650 million to 3.3 billion dollars; create jobs for two million more people; and, double the annual per capita production of fruits and vegetables from 50.2Kg. The strategy even sets a target for sequestering 131 million tons of carbon dioxide in soil and crops over the next decade.

But these numbers should go beyond aspirations. They represent a concrete vision for the future based on data-driven planning.

The horticulture sector is already a patchwork of promise. It includes table grapes, avocados, strawberries, mangoes, bananas, and vegetables like tomatoes, onions, and peppers. Add to these herbs, and a strong floriculture industry centred on roses and ornamental cuttings. These crops thrive in 18 distinct agroecological zones. The sector already provides jobs, especially for women and youth in rural areas, and supports a growing agro-processing industry that adds value through juicing, canning, and drying.

However, several barriers stand in the way of scaling up. Supply chains are fragmented. Cold storage is inadequate. Water is scarce, and power shortages are frequent in critical regions. Roads and air links to export hubs are lacking, making it hard to compete on speed and freshness in demanding overseas markets.

The recent opening of Cool Port Addis at Mojo Dry Port and improvements along the Ethiopia-Djibouti railway mark a turning point. With modern cold-chain facilities, perishable goods can move faster, reducing post-harvest losses that can reach up to 40pc for some crops. This infrastructure is a game-changer, giving exporters a shot at delivering avocados to European supermarkets or roses to the Middle East in a matter of days.

But such gains could easily stall without a transparent and data-driven strategy. That is where a resource atlas comes in.

As a member of a national technical committee that developed the National Manufacturing Industry Resource Atlas, introduced in draft form in July 2025, I see it as a model for what can be achieved. Backed by the World Bank and executed by a private GIS consulting firm, the Atlas is more than a report but an interactive platform.

It maps the country’s resources, from water, energy, and transportation to ICT networks, industrial parks, mining, and labour pools. It used spatial data from various agencies, including the Ministry of Water & Energy, Ethiopian Electric Power, and the Ethiopian Statistical Service. The platform enables planners to overlay layers of data, such as energy access (areas within 10Km of transmission lines or 25Km of substations), revealing that about 283,320Sqkm, representing 25pc of the country's surface area, has viable power for manufacturing.

The methodology behind the Atlas started with identifying relevant data sources, then collecting geospatially referenced data, cleaning and validating it, and finally standardising the information for thematic mapping. The process is highly collaborative, bringing together federal and regional stakeholders to ensure accuracy. The outcome is a centralised repository that supports decisions such as where to build factories, close to water basins, such as the Abay’s 52.6 billion cubic meters of water, or along key transport corridors.

The Atlas has already helped highlight industrial clusters, such as the 171 large-scale firms in Addis Abeba and the 3,163 medium-scale enterprises across the country. It has revealed opportunities for co-locating agro-processing near high-density cattle zones, such as the Arsi Zone, and exposed disparities, such as the heavy concentration of manufacturing in central Ethiopia.

The horticulture sector shares many parallels with manufacturing. Both require reliable access to inputs, energy, water, and skilled labour. Both need infrastructure, like roads, railways, power, ICT, and benefit from proximity to processing centres and export hubs. The national horticulture strategy sets out a vision for eight horticultural corridors, 200 production clusters, and 10 “horti-parks” over the next decade.

Precision is crucial to make this plan work. A horticulture resource atlas, modelled on the manufacturing tool, could map agroecological suitability, surface water flows, road access (including proximity to dry ports like Mojo), and crop yields. It could pull data from surveys conducted three years ago by the Ethiopian Statistical Service on vegetable yields in the Rift Valley or on fruit clusters in Sidama Regional State, and overlay them with ICT coverage, which now reaches 97pc of the country on 2G networks, opening up opportunities for smart farming.

The power of this approach is easy to imagine. By geospatially analysing soil maps, such as identifying Vertisols suitable for high-yield vegetables, the Atlas could spotlight promising corridors for irrigated horticulture, cutting reliance on rain-fed farming. It could direct resources toward clusters near the Ethiopia-Djibouti railway, ensuring the quick shipment of perishable goods. For new horti-parks, the Atlas could prioritise sites near universities and TVET schools, which are key for developing skills in post-harvest technology.

Drawing on labour mapping from the manufacturing atlas, it could help policymakers target youth employment in regional states like South Omo, which is rich in fruit but lacks infrastructure.

An atlas like this would not be limited to a technical tool. It would be an economic catalyst. Ethiopia’s horticultural exports could increase rapidly by leveraging trade deals such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (ACFTA) and the European Union’s Everything But Arms (EBA) agreement. Modern cold chain facilities address a crucial bottleneck, but mapping is needed to ensure development does not get lopsided, such as the concentration of 132 firms in Bishoftu.

By supporting domestic supply chains and reducing imports of costly inputs like fertilisers, agro-industries can be established that create value at home and generate new jobs, especially for women’s cooperatives.

Some critics may say that agriculture is too seasonal or fragmented for this type of mapping. But the manufacturing atlas has already proved it can handle dynamic factors such as changes in energy supply or mining shifts. Data gaps can be closed through partnerships, as the Ministry of Industry worked with the World Bank. During my time on the committee, GIS tools did not simply break down institutional silos. They build new connections across ministries.

If the Ministry of Agriculture adopted climate projections, it could help the sector manage risks such as drought, which affects 40pc of horticultural production.

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PUBLISHED ON Dec 27,2025 [ VOL 26 , NO 1339]

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