In a troubling divergence from official inflation data, the cost of everyday essentials is climbing with unnerving speed, reshaping household habits and revealing deep inefficiencies in the import-dependent supply chains.

Nowhere is this more visible than in the spiralling price of cooking oil, an indispensable kitchen staple whose sudden surge is reverberating from the open-air markets to restaurant kitchens and low-income homes.

The divergence between official statistics and the lived experience has been drawing increasing attention, particularly as international organisations weigh in with their own analyses. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently confirmed what most families already know. The cost of goods and services in Ethiopia has jumped by an average of 13pc. Yet, the Central Statistics Agency (CSA) offers a different reading, reporting food inflation at 10.2pc this month.

On the ground, however, the difference is all but invisible. Prices continue to surge, stretching household budgets to their breaking point.

The disparity is evident in the capital’s busiest markets. In neighbourhoods such as Ayer Tena, Mercato, and Lancha, a walk through the stalls reveals how much prices have jumped in a matter of days. Cooking oil, a staple in local kitchens, has become an example of this crisis.

The preferred Omar brand, widely known for its quality, jumped 18pc in a week, rising from 1,700 Br to as much as 2,000 Br, depending on the shop. Orkide oil followed closely, rising 12pc to 1,850 Br, while Sunflower, another popular choice, spiked 17pc to 1,750 Br. Even more striking is the Viking brand of palm oil, which soared from 1,100 Br to 1,500 Br, a jump of 36pc in seven days.

For many in Addis Abeba, and across the country, these increases are forcing tough choices.

Tesema Bedaso, 28, has felt the pinch more than most. Working as a day labourer at a construction site near Bole Arabsa and living alone in Tulu Dimtu, he is financially stretched. He rents a single-room condominium for 8,000 Br a month, leaving little for food and other necessities. Not long ago, he could buy five litres of edible oil for 1,500 Br at his neighbourhood shop. But when he returned recently to restock, the oil was gone. With prices rising everywhere, he has been forced to change the way he diets.

“Now I boil potatoes and eat them with salad,” he said. “Almost every food needs oil to cook.”

Despite the challenges, Tesema is determined to find a way. He now plans to buy smaller amounts of oil, a litre or two, if he can find any at a reasonable price.

His story is far from unique. Fikirte Tilahun, a mother of three and a housewife, found herself in a similar bind when she set out to buy cooking oil. Initially hoping to purchase a five-litre bottle, Fikirte was taken aback by the new prices. She immediately scaled back her plans. She now buys only a litre or three at a time, the five-litre option no longer within reach.

“The cost of living has increased badly,” she said. “Life has become very tough.”

For shopkeepers, the situation is equally troubling. According to Habib Ahmed, who runs a small shop in Ayer Tena, he had little choice but to raise prices this week after seeing wholesale costs spike during a recent trip to Mercato. Almost every item on his shopping list was more expensive than before. Cooking oil, in particular, was subject to wild fluctuations.

“I feel ashamed when customers ask me the price,” Habib said.

Some customers accuse him of being greedy, but most eventually return after finding the same high prices elsewhere. The strain on supply is also growing. Habib saw how traders in Mercato were limiting sales to two packs of cooking oil per shop owner, if they were willing to sell at all.

“Even getting that amount has become difficult,” he said.

Officials, aware of the growing complaints, are stepping up efforts to monitor and stabilise the market. According to Ashenafi Berhanu, communications director at the Addis Abeba Trade Bureau, his office has begun inspecting markets to check for hoarding or excessive pricing. These are concerns raised by shop owners like Habib, who say the latest surge in prices has no explanation. Ashenafi also stated that there is no shortage of imported goods or disruption in the import system. He blamed speculation and hoarding for much of the current rise in the cost of living.

But traders and distributors in Mercato reject this, insisting the problem lies further up the supply chain. According to Hamdan Mohamed, a longtime distributor, the real issue starts with importers.

“If there is hoarding, it's from the side of the importer, not from the distributors,” he said.

Hamdan claims that when importers supply sufficient product, Mercato traders have the capacity and the willingness to buy and distribute edible oil at only a small profit margin. He recalled a recent sharp price increase that began when importers raised their rates, sometimes citing factory shortages as the cause. The result, he said, is higher wholesale costs and fewer products to sell.