Preventing War Far Cheaper Than Paying Its Deadly Price

Mar 23 , 2025.

Getachew Redda, head of the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA), at least up until last week, is no ordinary politician.

Witty, articulate, and boldly confrontational, he seldom hesitates to criticise his political rivals within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Known for his liberal persuasion, he has always been an odd fit within the traditionally left-leaning TPLF leadership. Yet, despite his intellect and charisma, his tenure at the helm of TIRA has been all but free from troubles and contentions.

During a recent press conference at the Sheraton Addis, far from his base in Meqelle, Getachew maintained his typical humour, joking with journalists even as he levelled grave accusations against what he characterised “a few but influential” lots within the TPLF and the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF). He openly accused high-ranking party members and Tigray TDF commanders of conspiring with Eritrea to reignite hostilities in the troubled region.

This claim, shocking as it was, resonated deeply. If true, a fresh conflict could drag in other interested parties, plunging the already fragile Horn of Africa region into wider turmoil.

The warning was swiftly echoed by international envoys based in Addis Abeba. Representatives from the United States Embassy, alongside embassies from 24 countries and the European Union (EU) delegation, called urgently for calm and restraint. Their message was unequivocal: a return to violence would be catastrophic.

It is a timely call, and if heeded, it could save lives.

The discord between Getachew's faction and the group led by TPLF’s Chairman, Debretsion Gebremichael (PhD), has been brewing for over a year. Initial disagreements over the slow implementation of the Pretoria Peace Accord sparked the dispute, which has escalated into a severe power struggle, with each faction vying fiercely for dominance.

Alongside Getachew are allies in Beyene Mikru and Kindeya Gebrehiwot, a forestry professor turned politician. Debretsion’s camp includes powerful figures such as Alem Gebrewahid, Fetleworq Gebregziabher, and Ethiopia's former spy chief, Getachew Assefa. Sebhat Nega, TPLF’s patriarch, reportedly supports them from afar. He lives in the United States.

Getachew and his deputy, Tsadikan Gebretensay (Let. Gen.), formerly Ethiopia's army chief during the late 1990s war with Eritrea, have notably withdrawn from their offices in Meqelle. Their absence signals deep fractures in the Pretoria Accord, the agreement designed to silence the guns and stabilise the Tigray Region after a devastating two-year warfare.

The instability in Tigray State intersects dangerously with broader geopolitical ambitions. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) recently made clear his government's desire for maritime access, arguing about the country's frustration at being landlocked despite having a population of over 100 million and commanding one of the largest economies in the region.

Ethiopia lost its coastline after Eritrea's independence in 1993, a condition long lamented by the Ethiopian intelligentsia and political leaders who believe direct access to the sea could boost economic growth by up to 30pc.

Such aspirations could turn volatile. Eritrea's Red Sea coastline sits tantalisingly close — less than 100Km from Ethiopia's borders. Any attempt to negotiate access, through leases or territorial swaps, immediately raises questions about potential conflict if diplomacy fails.

The environment is already tense.

Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of undermining peace efforts in the Tigray Region, while Eritrea views Ethiopia’s growing ties with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and its maritime ambitions with suspicion. The tensions are complicated further by Eritrea's involvement in neighbouring Sudan’s internal conflict, supporting the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) against rival factions, some allegedly backed by TDF elements.

Historically, the Horn of Africa's conflicts rarely remain localised.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia maintain considerable influence over Eritrea, while those from Qatar, Turkey, the United States Britain, and the EU all have interests in regional stability.

Yet, global attention on the Horn of Africa region has waned since Russia invaded Ukraine, inadvertently providing regional leaders and emerging middle powers greater freedom to manoeuvre without immediate international pushback.

These dynamics present severe risks. Should the federal government directly intervene in the TPLF's internal conflicts, Eritrea could exploit the instability, supporting whichever faction most undermines Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions. Such a scenario risks spiralling into a broader conflict, endangering the fragile peace established by the Pretoria Accord.

Ensuring Ethiopia’s internal stability means addressing crucial governance issues. TIRA needs to hold regional elections as soon as possible to reconstitute the regional council and send legislators to the federal parliament.

Thousands of internally displaced people languish in overcrowded camps, and security issues threaten the fragile demobilisation and reintegration process. Armed forces other than the federal army still remain within Tigray State, including Eritrean forces, despite the Pretoria Accord tasking the federal government to ensure this would not be the case. The longer these issues linger unresolved, the higher the prospect for violent conflict to resume.

A renewed conflict would be catastrophic. The earlier war in the north, one of the 21st Century's deadliest, caused more than half a million deaths and left millions displaced. Humanitarian agencies estimate over five million people still require urgent assistance. The economic damage has been immense, with reconstruction costs projected at around 20 billion dollars. Ethiopia is already burdened by ongoing violence in the Amhara and Oromia regional states, compounding national strain.

Preventing further escalation is paramount. A World Bank study discovered the economic logic of investing in conflict prevention rather than bearing the astronomical costs of war and post-war reconstruction.

Using historical data from 1975 to 2014, the study shows that countries experiencing civil wars suffer GDP growth losses of around 8.5 percentage points in the first year of conflict and continue to lag behind economically for decades.

Interventions after conflict erupt are costly. Peacekeeping missions, humanitarian aid, and reconstruction expenses frequently run into billions of dollars. However, preventive strategies—mediation, diplomacy, and support for local governance—are markedly cheaper.

According to the World Bank, limited early interventions in high-risk countries could generate annual savings of about 2.5 billion dollars, substantially cutting costs associated with large-scale humanitarian missions and reconstruction.

The human costs of war are devastating. The study estimates more than 200,000 refugees typically flee civil war zones in the conflict’s first year, with numbers rising dramatically as conflicts persist. The emotional and social scars persist across generations, fuelling long-term instability.

Critics may question the certainty of preventive investments, noting that conflicts do not always erupt as predicted. Yet the potential cost of ignoring early signs vastly outweighs the expense of occasional false alarms. Early, targeted efforts, such as diplomatic engagements, local peace initiatives, or support for transparent governance, cost much less than comprehensive post-conflict interventions. Even small-scale interventions can dramatically reduce the risk of conflict, saving lives and preserving economic stability.

The logic is clear. Ethiopia's current tensions present precisely such a moment for proactive international engagement. Prime Minister Abiy declared last week that Ethiopia "has no desire to invade Eritrea for the Red Sea," despite his country's maritime ambitions. The international community should take him at his word, facilitating diplomatic channels to avert war.

The Horn of Africa cannot afford another catastrophic war. It is a truth worth investing in.

PUBLISHED ON Mar 23, 2025 [ VOL 25 , NO 1299]

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