For Mesfin Reday, a flower shop owner in Rehobot, Bole district, business has been choppy.

Having begun the business two years ago, he eagerly awaits Valentine's Day, graduations and wedding seasons when his flower business booms.

On a normal day, he might sell 150 stems of flowers, while on Valentine’s Day that number triples. Prices, given the higher demand, also increase from the usual three Birr to 10 Br a stem.

“We had a problem last Valentine’s Day though,” Mesfin says. “The flowers weren't stored properly while being transported, and the flowers spoiled.”

Despite the obstacles, these occasions are the best business period for the flower production industry that has been in decline for the past two years and has stagnated in the first half of this fiscal year. It is a problem that has been especially evident in the flower export business.

In the first five months of this fiscal year, cut flowers, summer flowers and roses that Ethiopia exported fetched the nation 87.37 million dollars, showing a slight decline of about a million dollars compared to the same period last fiscal year. Flowers are the fourth highest income generating commodities, behind coffee, oilseeds and gold.

The performance in the value of the exports though does not tell the full picture, having in fact shown an increase in the past two years.

The nation’s production grew by 30pc in the previous fiscal year to 713.7 million stems of cut flowers, and yet revenue grew by 11pc to 243 million dollars in the last fiscal year. Production showed only marginal changes in the five months of this year compared to the same period in the previous year.

This is despite the repeatedly touted potential of the nation in terms of horticulture. Although there is a favourable climate and two million hectares of potential land suited for flower cultivation, only around 1,600ha of land is under cultivation.

There are a number of factors that are contributing to the underperformance, including political unrest, which is disrupting supply lines and the availability of employees.

Last year's better than expected performance was a result of luck given that the industry has been seriously hit by political problems, according to Mekonen Solomon, deputy CEO of the former Ethiopian Horticulture & Agricultural Investment Authority.

“High temperature in Kenya meant that supply was affected and a shortage was created in the Dutch market, which Ethiopia took advantage of through higher prices, not more supply," Mekonen says. “This year, the country, whose biggest market is Europe, is being challenged by the Brexit crisis, as well as a political crisis in France in the form of the yellow vests movement.”

Supply also declined despite an improving weather condition, the lack of which led to a 60 million dollar decline in the Kenyan market, Africa’s largest flower exporter. Flower producers attribute the problem in Ethiopia to a continuing shortcoming in the political situation of the nation.

“To be successful in the sector there should be peace and stability, but the last two years of unrest in different parts of the country have been highly challenging,” says Emebet Tesfa, farm manager at Et-Highland Flora Plc, a company located in Sebeta, 19Km from the capital. “Filling the gap is going to take time and diversification of the market.”