A Department of Homeland Security (DHS) data places Ethiopia among the global hotspots for B1/B2 visa overstays, uncovering the growing tension between migration pressures at home and tightening immigration scrutiny abroad.

In 2023, 15,809 Ethiopian nationals entered the United States on business or tourist visas. Close to 1,225 failed to depart within their authorised stay, a 7.75pc overstay rate, more than five times the global average of 1.45pc. Most of these, 1,150 cases, were “suspected in-country overstays,” presenting prolonged unlawful presence.

Regionally, Ethiopia ranks behind only Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa in Africa in the number of B1/B2 overstays. Globally, its overstay volume surpasses that of countries with much larger outbound travel numbers, including Romania, Turkey, and South Korea.

American law imposes reentry bans of three to 10 years for overstays beyond 180 days, and high rates can prompt more rigorous vetting, longer processing times, and increased visa denials.

“We can't assure that there will be no policy changes in the future.” Marjon E. Kamrani Spokesperson US Embassy in Addis Abeba

Migration analysts attribute the trend to a combination of factors. They cite push factors, including political uncertainty, economic hardship, and limited employment opportunities in Ethiopia, as likely motivations. According to Tigabu Desalegn, a legal expert with over 17 years of experience in international law, political, economic and social pressures shape Ethiopia’s refugee and migration patterns.

“As long as there are pushing factors in the country, people will continue to leave,” said Tigabu. “Their only goal is to get a better life, no matter what those factors may be. We can't avoid or stop people from seeking better lives abroad, because it is their right.”

Pull factors, including informal diaspora networks, relaxed internal mobility once inside the US, and challenges in exit tracking at ports, add to the complexity.

The implications are showing up at consular windows, according to practitioners in Addis Abeba. While the US does not formally penalise a country for overstay rates alone, the consular practice of “visa refusal based on past patterns” is already quietly affecting Ethiopian applicants.

DHS data show that student and exchange categories also face elevated rates. In 2023, 1,660 Ethiopian students and exchange visitors were expected to depart; however, 328 overstayed, resulting in a 19.76pc total overstay rate. Of these, 308 were suspected to have remained in-country, an 18.55pc suspected in-country rate. Other non-immigrant admission classes from Ethiopia saw 617 expected departures and 85 overstays, a 13.78pc rate, including 81 suspected in-country overstays. The figures for 2022 were even higher for students and exchange visitors with 1,664 expected departures and 514 overstays, pushing the total overstay rate to 30.89pc, with 30.29pc suspected to have remained in the United States.

Washington’s political calendar adds a charged backdrop. Analysts warn that elevated overstay rates from African countries could be pulled into the broader immigration debate. For Ethiopia, already facing pressure from multilateral institutions over governance and economic reform, the numbers could complicate relations with the US. Still, Ethiopian officials have avoided some of the sharpest measures.