The Brewed Buck moved subtly but persistently against the Green Buck over the past week, uncovering deeper structural issues in the foreign exchange market. Between December 2 and December 7, 2024, rates among banks did more than adhere to standard pricing patterns. They unveiled intriguing outliers. Chief among them was Goh Betoch Bank, offering noticeably higher rates and raising questions about its executives' rationales in a market normally defined by uniform spreads and the state-owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia’s (CBE) influence.

During the six days last week, the Birr’s buying rate averaged 123.9, while its average selling rate settled at 126.8. These represented a measured but steady depreciation, enough to show the Brewed Buck's ongoing weakness. Most banks maintained the mandated two percent spread between buying and selling, producing a near-constant margin that illustrated regulatory control. Yet Goh Betoch broke from this pack, posting figures above its peers and taking a position of unexpected lead.

On December 6 and 7, the Bank’s selling rate hit 127.368 Br, firmly at the top of the range. It also offered higher-than-average buying rates (124.87 Br), a strategy that might signal an aggressive attempt to pull in dollar inflows from a starved market. Whether this represents a competitive manoeuvre or a response to pressing liquidity needs. It distinguished Goh Betoch in an environment where outliers rarely appear without reason.

The state-owned CBE displayed its traditional conservatism, albeit with increasing rates. On December 7, it posted a buying rate of 122.59 Br, while its selling rate measured 125 Br. Among the lowest in the market, these rates may demonstrate CBE's capacity to resist pressures that push others toward more provocative strategies. As the largest and most influential financial institution, its executives' cautious approach could stabilise, curbing the market’s drift into more pronounced volatility.

Another outlier appeared to be Nib International Bank (NIB), which maintained the lowest buying rate at 121.6 Br for a dollar throughout the period.

Most private banks stayed firmly in the middle, with buying rates between 123.4 Br and 124.7 Br a dollar and selling rates from 125.5 Br to 127.2 Br. Their actions blended into a broad regulatory norm, leaving little room for strategic differentiation. Yet, there were moments that caught the eye.