A Country Governed by Guesswork, While Millions Lost in the Shadows

Mar 16 , 2025.

Ask anyone about the population of Addis Abeba, and a straightforward answer proves elusive. Wikipedia claims the city’s population reached 5.7 million this year. Worldpopulationreview.com, however, puts the figure at nearly six million. The UN’s Human Settlements Program, or UN-Habitat, estimates it at four million, quite below the Addis Abeba City Administration’s projection, which surpasses five million. Even this official figure is far from accurate, resulting from annual projections made for almost two decades now.

Such discrepancies underline Ethiopia’s deeper statistical crisis, which is outdated, conflicting, and unreliable.

The Ethiopian Statistics Service (ESS) recently reported the national population at 109 million for 2024, sharply contrasting the United Nations' estimate of about 127 million, a massive gap of nearly 20 million people, the population size of either Zambia or Chad.

The last comprehensive census took place 18 years ago, in 2007. The fourth national population and housing census, planned for November 2017, never happened. Thus, Ethiopia relies on projections and estimations, which grow increasingly inaccurate by the year.

These contradictions carry severe consequences. Inaccurate population data impairs development planning, undermining public services from healthcare and education to infrastructure. Underestimating the population deprives millions of critical services, as overestimating leads to wasted resources. Both scenarios erode public trust and weaken governance.

Reliable demographic data is fundamental to effective governance. It determines how policymakers and legislators allocate resources, where they build schools and hospitals, and how they plan economic strategies. Ethiopia’s demographic uncertainties mean policymakers operate mainly in the dark, risking ineffective or misguided interventions.

The absence of current census data is particularly harmful in a country experiencing rapid urban growth and internal migration. Millions of Ethiopians move within the country each year, driven by economic hardship, political instability and violent conflicts. Such movements deem older population data irrelevant, complicating efforts to provide adequate infrastructure, housing, and public services. Regional authorities struggle to manage urbanisation effectively without accurate and up-to-date figures.

Persistent underinvestment in the statistical and census works has not been helpful. Chronic underfunding has led to high staff turnover within the ESS, as unattractive salaries and limited career opportunities drain talent. This has resulted in a loss of institutional memory, leaving the agency ill-equipped to handle complex operations like national censuses. Sporadic international assistance alone cannot fill the gap. The agency needs sustained investment to build a robust statistical framework.

Technological advancements, such as Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping and digital interviewing techniques, offer promising solutions. Nonetheless, their potential remains unfulfilled due to limited resources and frequent administrative restructuring at local levels, which disrupts census enumeration. These tools fail to deliver meaningful improvements without consistent financial and technical support.

A functional Civil Registration & Vital Statistics (CRVS) system could enhance census accuracy. Alarmingly, Ethiopia registers only around three percent of births, severely limiting demographic insights crucial for timely policy interventions. Establishing an effective CRVS system would dramatically improve demographic records and provide policymakers with reliable ongoing data.

The practical implications of this statistical crisis are profound. Without accurate data, policymakers cannot effectively plan for education, healthcare, employment, or housing. Policymakers remain unaware of critical details, such as literacy rates, school enrollment, infant and maternal mortality rates, employment figures, and access to utilities like electricity and clean water. These gaps inhibit their ability to tackle poverty, improve gender equality, and devise sound housing policies.

Not surprisingly, other African countries echo Ethiopia’s statistical failings.

In Nigeria, inconsistent agricultural output figures in 2017 caused confusion and worsened food insecurity. Nigeria’s Bureau of Statistics reported maise production at 10.5 million tons, while the Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimated it at only seven million tons. The discrepancy delayed vital policy interventions. Ethiopia's leaders' claim of annual wheat productivity is three times larger than the US Department of Agriculture reported. Zimbabwe provides another cautionary tale; during its hyperinflation crisis in the late 2000s, unreliable inflation reporting obscured the economic reality, complicating governance and international aid efforts.

Ethiopia risks similar pitfalls unless it urgently reforms its statistical system. Accurate census and transparent data should become a national priority.

Reliable data should not be optional. It forms the foundation of sound governance and sustainable growth. Ethiopia's continued statistical inaccuracies threaten effective national planning and development. Policymakers should decisively commit to strengthening statistical institutions and enforcing transparency. Without these steps, the country's developmental ambitions will falter, and public confidence in official figures will remain fragile.

It needs strengthened technical capacities, improved coordination among statistical agencies, and independent oversight bodies to ensure transparency. Regular publication of comprehensive data audits could also restore public trust and conform statistical practices with global standards.

The damage from continued inaction would be consequential. Incorrect agricultural data can derail food security efforts. Inaccurate GDP or inflation figures may trigger misguided monetary and fiscal policies. Flawed population data can undermine social welfare programs. Ethiopians risk critical decisions based on flawed assumptions without up-to-date census, endangering long-term development goals.

Ethiopia is at a crossroads, facing the critical choice of either continuing its reliance on guesswork for policymaking or embarking on the rigorous task of conducting a new and comprehensive national census. International donors can assist through funds and sustained technical expertise, but the political will can only come from its leaders. Strengthening institutions, ensuring transparent communication, and rigorously overseeing census methodology are essential.

The consequences of inaction are already dire and worsening. Effective governance and future development fundamentally depend on accurate demographic data. Without decisive measures, the country risks deepening divisions and falling short of meeting the aspirations of its rapidly expanding population. There has seldom been greater urgency to carry out a fresh census.

However, the prevailing security situation presents a formidable obstacle. Violent conflicts, notably in the regional states of Amhara and Oromia, certainly complicate any immediate effort to deploy census-takers house-to-house. This is not new. Instability and mass protests had prompted former Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn's government to postpone the fourth census. Indeed, crises of this magnitude pose logistical and technical nightmares, from disrupted mapping exercises to rising operational costs.

Equally problematic would be the politicisation of census data, a common feature in deeply fragmented societies such as Ethiopia. Here, demographic figures often cease to be neutral statistics. Instead, they become bargaining tools, shaping political representation and influencing resource allocation.

Despite these serious constraints, censuses remain feasible — and crucial — even during times of crisis. Humanitarian emergencies demand timely, reliable, and detailed population data, ensuring aid is accurately targeted towards affected areas and vulnerable populations. So do businesses to develop business plans. Conducting a census amid conflict should therefore be seen as more than a statistical exercise; it is a pathway toward reclaiming stability.

Every number counted represents resilience, dignity regained, and an informed step toward recovery and lasting peace.

PUBLISHED ON Mar 16, 2025 [ VOL 25 , NO 1298]

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