The trope of attempts in the social media memes put a comedic spin presenting oil as a priceless household commodity and household dependence on it. It demonstrates a classic case of humour in the face of adversity. The posts poke fun at the volatile market for cooking oil, oily in recent weeks. Through irony, young consumers seem to have found a way to cope with the rising cost of living. Older generations, however, are less enthused.

Wude Adane, a mother of three in her 40s, wore a sour expression as she talked to a shopkeeper in the Amist Kilo area last week. Her elder son, a university student, shared some of these memes with her online. If they amused her, it did not show on her face.

Wude works as a secretary at a private college. She heard stories about a sudden spike in the price of edible oil from acquaintances. She wanted to drop by a store on her way home to see for herself. The first two had no oil on their shelves. Wude found a three-litre bottle of sunflower oil imported from Turkey in the third store she had checked on. The price? 580 Br.

Wude prefers to buy a five-litre bottle of the Omaar sunflower oil brand, enough to last her family of six a couple of weeks. Two weeks ago, her preferred brand cost 590 Br. Today, she would need to shell out nearly 1,000 Br for the oil.

“Imagine spending 2,000 Br a month on oil," Wude bemused.

She takes home a monthly salary of 6,000 Br. Her husband earns more working as a technician for the Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP). Worried that a few cooking oil bottles were left on the shelves would last no more than a day, Wude bought the three-litre bottle. She worries over what the future holds if the cost of living persists.

"We'll have to learn to use less while cooking,” Wude mumbled as she took out notes from her purse.

In an economy where wages are stagnant, and the army of the unemployed is going high, many are like Wude. They cut back on their consumption in the face of runaway prices galloping without offering respite for consumers, particularly in the fixed-income bracket. According to the Ethiopian Statistics Service, year-on-year headline inflation registered 33.6pc last month. Though it dropped by one percentage point from January 2022, it marks the seventh month in a row above the 30pc threshold.

Food inflation clocked in at a staggering 41.9pc, with cereals exhibiting the most worrisome rises. The doubling of prices for cooking oil seemingly overnight meant for consumers like Wude, prices are likely to go higher this month.

The edible oil market has been volatile, spiking on two occasions over the past year. Last May, the first price surge came around when a five-litre bottle suddenly jumped to 600 Br. Last week Wude and millions of consumers were surprised when prices jumped to around 1,000 Br.

The market remains heavily dependent on importing crude and processed oil to meet the kitchen demand estimated at 75 million litres a month. Over 410 million litres of refined and processed cooking oil was shipped in since last September at the cost of over 23 billion Br. Refined palm oil accounted for 35pc. Sunflower oil, like the Omaar brand Wude bought, comprises 43pc.

For consumers like Wude, the price surge should be baffling considering that two industrial-scale edible oil processing plants were opened last year. A third inaugurated a large expansion, too.

Phibela, Worku Aytenew (W.A.), Shemu, Harmessa and Al-Impex are the five large-scale oil plants operating. Phibela and W.A. began production in the Amhara Regional State last year following investments of nearly 10 billion Br.

These plants have an aggregate capacity to bottle enough cooking oil to meet domestic demand. But, they struggle to cover a third of their potential due to a shortage of oilseeds and crude oil. No less disruptive is the erratic and often interrupted electric power. Phibela, under Belayneh Kindie Group (BKG), has a production capacity of 1.5 million litres a day, but its actual output is far below. Initially touted as a prime example of import substitution, the plant has itself become almost entirely dependent on imported crude palm oil.

According to Eniyew Wassie, chief executive officer (CEO) of Phibela Industrial Plc, this is not for lack of trying.

The Group has been attempting to grow oilseeds on 7,000ht of farmland it acquired two years ago in Guba, Benishangul-Gumuz Regional State. Eniyew says security concerns in the area, where Ethiopia builds its largest hydroelectric dam, remain a snag.

"The plans to farm in Guba have completely halted," he said.

The Group is also trying to farm oilseeds, including sesame, on leased farmlands in the Southern and Amhara regional states.

However, oilseed production has been falling, with smallholder farmers harvesting around eight million quintals from 770,000ht of land last year, nearly 10pc lower than the preceding year. Sesame and niger seeds dominate production, accounting for close to 60pc. Sesame made up over 95pc of the 2.43 million quintals of oilseeds produced on commercial farms last year. However, nearly all of it was destined for export.

Officials at the Ministry of Trade & Regional Integration blame low yields expected from oilseeds for the falls in productivity. Farmers can grow more than 30 quintals of cereals such as wheat on a hectare, compared to less than 10 quintals for oilseeds. Sesame, in particular, is labelled a "low volume, high value" oilseed due to the relatively low amounts of the oilseed needed to produce large volumes of oil.

Processing plants do not get sufficient seeds to crush as farmers generate higher income from other crops, according to Nigus Chernet, head of the team supervising the food and beverage industries at the Ministry.

Even if plants processed sesame into oil domestically, consumers would find it too expensive, sold for 300 Br a litre in the retail market. Available in the local market for 9,000 Br a quintal, sesame remains a cash crop earmarked for exports, accounting for nearly 10pc of the 3.6 billion dollars in export revenues last year.