In the Horn of Africa, Unity Offers Power, Division Risks Peril

In the Horn of Africa, Unity Offers Power, Division Risks Peril

Aug 23 , 2025. By Ilyas M. Dawaleh ( Ilyas Moussa Dawaleh (ilyasdawaleh@gmail.com) is the secretary general of the RPP, the governing party in the Republic of Djibouti. )

More than 3.4 billion people worldwide now live in countries that spend more on interest payments than on health. For the Horn of Africa, the arithmetic of survival tilts heavily toward integration over isolation. The deficit of trust across the region often suffocates collective action. Young people, unconvinced that tomorrow will be better, vote with their feet, crossing borders or seas in search of opportunities that home economies cannot yet provide.

The Horn of Africa has reached a hinge moment in a turbulent century. Pandemics, climate shocks, financial tremors, and geopolitical rivalries are rearranging global power, forcing countries to decide whether to hunker down behind borders or ride out the storm together.

For the Horn, the question is haunting. The refrain, whether to retreat behind borders while each country fends for itself, echoes from highlands to coasts. Isolation can soothe short-term fears; however, partnership is now the objective measure of strength. Regional integration is no longer a lofty dream. It is the complex calculus of survival.

Alarmingly, the costs of fragmentation are already visible. Border frictions delay trucks and convoys, adding days to delivery times and scaring off investors. Regulatory mismatches snarl digital start-ups and block power grids from linking. A deficit of trust suffocates collective action, while young people, unconvinced that tomorrow will be better than today, leave to seek opportunities abroad.

Nonetheless, most damaging is the disunity that turns the Horn of Africa into a strategic chessboard on which outside powers manoeuvre, each move widening the region’s fault lines. No state, however large or resource-rich, can flourish for long in such an environment.

Djibouti has chosen a different path. Its leaders insist on openness, dialogue, and connection. More than a logistics platform, Djibouti aspires to be a catalyst for cooperation, hosting peace talks, laying fibre-optic cables, and keeping its ports open to all.

If the geography of the Red Sea lanes, shared watersheds, and cross-border pastoral routes ties the Horn of Africa together, then political will can turn geography from a curse into a blessing.

The Horn of Africa is not condemned to crisis. It possesses the raw materials to become a laboratory of African solutions to Africa’s problems and a driver of shared prosperity. Ports can serve entire corridors, not just one flag. Peace can rest on dialogue, not fear. National pride can bind people together instead of driving them apart.

The region is not a powder keg. It can be a collective powerhouse if we choose unity.

Imagine a region powered by pooled energy grids, stitched together by seamless roads and rail, and wired through interoperable digital platforms. Envision supply chains that shrug off climate shocks because farmers, traders, and relief agencies coordinate forecasts, seeds, and storage. Imagine a workforce of young women and men who swap ideas instead of arms.

Indeed, such a future is attainable, but only if firm foundations are laid. There should be leadership that breaks cycles of grievance and institutions trusted to mediate disputes. Regular forums, such as councils, joint commissions, and early-warning systems, that replace rumour with facts should be encouraged. While joint investment in public goods, such as infrastructure, innovation, and climate resilience, needs to be reinforced, the most elusive aspect, a culture of trust, should be built patiently, transaction by transaction, election by election, and deal by deal.

Sovereignty and solidarity need not collide. When interdependence is managed, bridges guard national interests better than walls can.

Djibouti’s claim to neutrality should be viewed as a responsibility, not an indifference. Three pillars support it.

It originates from an exceptional geography, serving as a gateway that links Africa, the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. Its diplomatic credibility is earned by outreach to every camp without surrendering judgment. It has an enduring stability, upheld by institutions that facilitate political dialogue and provide predictable governance.

The African Union (AU), IGAD, the Arab League, the United Nations (UN), and global partners acknowledge these endowments. Djibouti, however, recognises that credibility erodes if it rests on inertia. Djibouti wants, and can go further, not on the ways of competition, but contribution and cooperation.

Its leaders outline three initiatives to match these pillars with action. The Arta Centre for Regional Mediation & Peace would train mediators, advance strategic research, and weave elders, youth, and women into peacemaking. An Annual Forum on Security, Peace, & Cooperation in the Horn of Africa, a Davos for Peace, so to say, would gather leaders, businesses, civil society, scholars, and mediators to compare notes before crises mature.

Lastly, a set of neutral trilateral diplomacy mechanisms would provide off-ramps from binary confrontations, thereby lowering the temperature of regional disputes before they escalate.

This agenda is based on the principles of neutrality as a duty, stability as a regional public good, and African solutions to African challenges. As global multilateralism wanes, principled regional leadership becomes increasingly vital. Djibouti’s vocation is to connect, convene, and integrate, never to dominate.

There is no concealed agenda here, only a sincere desire to build a community of shared destiny.

Much of this outlook bears the imprint of President Ismail Omar Guelleh, hailed at home and abroad as a charismatic statesman whose lifelong dedication blends wisdom, foresight, and an unwavering commitment to regional peace. For more than two decades, he has steered Djibouti through the Horn of Africa’s minefields, betting consistently on dialogue over discord and integration over isolation.

Neighbours in search of mediators often arrive in Djibouti City first, confident they will find a steady hand and a discreet ear.

The moment, though, belongs not to any single leader but to the region’s citizens. They should offer a clear wager. Those who invest in peace, dialogue, and shared prosperity are most welcome. Profiteers from mistrust should not be.

Unity should no longer be a slogan but the only viable security policy. The Horn of Africa’s future will be decided by those willing to trade suspicion for cooperation. The choice, therefore, is urgent, and still ours to make.

PUBLISHED ON Aug 23,2025 [ VOL 26 , NO 1321]