Ethiopian Looks South as Namibia Tries to Rebuild a National Carrier

May 26 , 2026. By NAHOM AYELE ( FORTUNE STAFF WRITER )

Ethiopian Airlines Group has initiated technical feasibility studies following a formal request from Namibia to help re-establish a national airline by late 2026. Chief Executive Officer, Mesfin Tasew, confirmed that while an agreement has been reached in principle, the final decision remains contingent on the outcomes of ongoing structured reviews. He disclosed that several partnership models are currently being evaluated to determine the most viable operational framework.

The Ethiopian Airlines Group (EAG) is weighing a deeper role in Southern Africa’s fragmented aviation market after Namibia formally asked the carrier to help re-establish a national airline, a move that could extend Addis Abeba’s influence beyond its hub-and-spoke network while testing how far Africa’s largest airline can stretch its management capacity.

Mesfin Tasew, the chief executive officer (CEO), confirmed to Fortune that the Group has begun technical feasibility studies following the request from Windhoek.

“We've agreed to assist in principle, but our final decision will depend on the outcome of the ongoing studies,” Mesfin said.

According to the CEO, several partnership models are under review, though no preferred structure has been identified. The Group is also assessing acquisition requests from two other countries, which he declined to name because the reviews are still in progress.

The request arrives as Ethiopian Airlines is strengthening its balance sheet through state-approved capital increases. The capital buildup is intended to protect the Group against an operating environment shaped by currency pressures, fuel costs and sharper regional competition. A Namibian arrangement, if it proceeds, would fit Ethiopian Airlines’ strategy of using alliances and minority stakes to expand across African markets too small or financially fragile to support large national carriers on their own.

However, the engagement is limited for now to Namibia’s approach, as separate discussions between Botswana and Namibia over a possible joint regional airline are not part of Ethiopian Airlines’ current mandate.

Namibia has been without a national flag carrier since Air Namibia was liquidated in 2021. Its latest plan is to launch Namibia Air before the end of 2026, presenting it as a clean-slate venture rather than a revival. A technical committee is reviewing operating models, including possible public-private partnership arrangements, before final Cabinet approval.

The shadow over that process is Air Namibia’s long failure. Founded in 1946 as South West Air Transport (SWAT), and rebranded after independence in 1991, the Airline operated for more than seven decades as the country’s flag carrier. It used Windhoek Hosea Kutako International Airport as its main hub, with secondary operations at Windhoek Eros Airport. Its network once connected Namibia with Johannesburg, Cape Town, Harare, Lusaka, Luanda and Gaborone. Long-haul flights at different times reached Frankfurt and London.

The network gave Namibia visibility but not financial endurance. Air Namibia accumulated losses over decades and relied on state bailouts estimated at around 467 million dollars. In February 2021, after prolonged financial stress and regulatory concerns, the Namibian government approved voluntary liquidation, grounded the fleet and ended operations.

Since then, policymakers in Windhoek have debated how to return to the aviation market without reproducing the old liabilities and habits. Early proposals included relaunching a carrier under a public-private partnership. The more recent direction is to establish Namibia Air as a new entity, with its governance and operating model still under review.

Botswana’s position adds another layer to the regional discussion. Air Botswana remains small by regional standards, operating three to four aircraft, with some reports putting active capacity at only three. It serves about eight destinations across roughly a dozen routes, focusing on domestic links and selected regional services. Staffing is estimated at between 201 and 500 employees. That scale makes it a limited national carrier rather than a full regional competitor. It helps explain why governments have returned to joint-venture options in search of economies of scale.

Such a scale could come from Ethiopian Airlines, a continental bellwether that few African companies can match. Its revenue of 7.6 billion dollars for 2024/25, about 19 million passengers carried during the year (including 15.2 million international passengers), and the acquisition of 13 new aircraft, signalled an expansion that has continued even as much of the global aviation industry remains exposed to volatile fuel costs, currency pressures, financing constraints, and shifting passenger demand.

The Group’s paid-up capital reached 263 billion Br, with more than 145 aircraft, flying to 127 destinations across Africa, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. Its freighter destinations include Accra, Johannesburg, Miami, São Paulo, Zurich, Dubai, Mumbai, Shanghai, and many others.

An aviation expert and pilot, Yonathan Menkir, believes that a Namibia-Botswana aviation arrangement offers a “significant strategic opportunity” for Ethiopian Airlines to deepen its role in African aviation integration following Air Namibia’s collapse, and given Air Botswana’s structural limits.

"Ethiopian Airlines should proceed gradually, starting with advisory work and codeshare agreements similar to its partnerships with ASKY Airlines and Malawi Airlines before considering equity participation," said Yonathan.

According to Yonathan, the commercial case lies in network efficiency. A new regional carrier could feed passengers into Ethiopian Airlines’ Addis Abeba hub while drawing on safari tourism and cargo flows. Such a model would use the Group’s existing hub-and-spoke system without requiring immediate large-scale investment in Windhoek or Gaborone.

But the opportunity carries familiar risks, Yonathan warned. Success would depend on disciplined governance and financial sustainability.

"Political ambitions should not run ahead of commercial realities that have weakened similar state-led ventures across Africa," he said.

PUBLISHED ON May 26,2026 [ VOL 27 , NO 1360]