A City Between the Market and the Rules

Posted on July 5, 2026July 7, 2026 by Digital Editor

July has arrived with the heaviest rains of the winter, dark clouds and mist blanketing Addis Abeba each morning. This year, the weather is not the only thing hanging over the capital.

Property owners and tenants are waiting for the Addis Abeba City Administration to announce how much house rents may rise in the new fiscal year. Hundreds of thousands who rent, and a far smaller number who own the properties they let, are waiting on the City Administration’s annual decision under the country’s rent-control laws, which will determine whether rents will climb in the coming lease cycle and by how much. The uncertainty has left both sides in an uneasy position despite their opposing interests.

Property owners, whose rental income has barely moved for nearly two years while living costs climb, want increases. Tenants, already handing over a large share of their earnings for shelter, fear a heavier load.

For Tsehay Abera, 75, a widow who lives on Guinea-Bissau Road in the Mekanisa Abo area, the debate is not abstract. She lives on a modest pension from her late husband’s service at the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) and on rental earnings from three small units in her compound. Her expenses, particularly for medical care and daily help, have risen steadily, yet the income from those units has not moved under the existing legal framework.

The law requires her to honour existing leases for their full term, barring her from raising rents or changing tenants even when the market would warrant it. In her neighbourhood, comparable modest houses are let for between 5,000 Br and 10,000 Br. Her returns sit below this.

Tsehay also pointed to growing problems in managing her property. Some tenants delay rent or misuse utilities, leaving her unsure how to respond within the law.

“I don’t know the law well,” she said. “I don’t have anyone to guide me. Sometimes, I feel people take advantage of my age and my condition.”

While property owners like Tsehay feel controls have squeezed their income, tenants describe the other side of the same market, defined by rising costs and uncertainty about the adjustment.

The pressure reaches well beyond single households. A two-year-old study by EthioData found that high and volatile rents, frequent increases, and widespread tenant insecurity define the private rental market, with many agreements still verbal, leaving room for abrupt adjustments and evictions. A large share of households spend more than 30pc of their income on rent, and a substantial minority more than half. Price data from the Ethiopian Property Centre in early 2026 put the average monthly rent for a city-centre studio at 45,000 Br, ranging from 35,000 Br to 65,000 Br by location, with Bole, Casanchis and Old Airport commanding premiums due to demand from expatriates.

For Negash Tolosa, 40, the pressures are measured not in policy but in monthly survival. He lives in the Lebu Medhanialem area and works at a fuel station near the Haile Garment Ring Road to support a household of five. His wife, Bekelu Fantahun, works at a milk plant in Sebeta. Together they earn about 32,000 Br a month, one-third earned by his wife.

On teh surface, the income looks stable. In daily life, nearly every Birr is spoken for before the month starts. The largest claim is rent, currently 12,000 Br for a two-room house, on top of school fees for three children, groceries, transport, electricity, water and healthcare. Rent alone takes more than a third of what they earn, leaving little for the unexpected.

“There are months when we simply pray that no one gets sick,” Negash said.

Financial pressure has reshaped the family’s days. Social outings and small treats have gone, replaced by tight budgeting on essentials, and invitations are declined when even minor spending can threaten next month’s rent or food. The pressure intensified when his landlord told him that once the lease expired, the rent would jump by 42pc. With the new school year near, Negash has decided to move his three children from a private school to a public one, a step he never imagined taking.

“I’ve no choice,” he said. “Keeping a roof over our heads and food on the table has to come first.”

For Negash, the law has formalised the paperwork but done little to ease the pressure beneath it.

Those tensions trace back to the law that governs rent control and administration, introduced two years ago, which turned a market long run on informal agreements into the legal arena. Its passage was contentious. The drafting and the speed of ratification drew criticism, with those impacted arguing it was rushed through Parliament.

The law was built to regulate annual rent increases for residential housing nationwide. It established regulatory bodies in Addis Abeba, Dire Dawa, and the regional states to set permissible adjustments to inflation and the cost of living. It also introduced tenancy protections, including a minimum two-year lease and eviction only on legally specified grounds. Supporters saw a state intervention in a market where most urban residents rent, meant to cool an overheated market and shield tenants from sudden increases. Critics argued from the start that it hemmed in owners, limiting their control over their own assets.

City administrations moved quickly. Addis Abeba was among the first to require lessors and tenants to register properties through wereda-level approval, a process that captured close to half a million units. Even so, implementation has stayed uneven. The law promised stability. In practice, many say the system still runs on a mix of formal contracts and informal arrangements, opening a gap between regulation and reality. As lease-renewal cycles come round each year, those tensions return, from a system meant to govern prices but struggling to control how they are applied.

The City Administration has leaned on a recent study to guide its policy for the coming year. The research, by a team from the City Leadership Academy, assessed the market and the effect of regulation on pricing. It found that inflation and demand were identified as the principal drivers, while house size, standard, utilities, and location set the levels. Annual rental increases, it found, had slowed from 28.76pc two years earlier to 20.58pc last year, a moderating trend. The authors of the study urged that keeping annual inflation below 10pc could steady rental growth at about 11.24pc, easing the need for heavier controls.

Officials of teh Bureau that is in charge of the city’s Housing Development & Administration, led by Kidist Weldegiorgis, cite the study as the basis for the revised framework, arguing that the proposed adjustment of about 11.24pc rests on evidence rather than discretion. According to Kidist, the policy seeks to balance affordability for tenants with lessors’ financial sustainability while preventing sharp increases, with renewal support from administrative structures meant to ensure compliance and reduce disputes.

Experts are divided over whether intervention is the right answer.

Nurahun Andargie (PhD), a lead researcher at the Addis Abeba Leadership Academy and a co-author of the study, firmly backs it, arguing that rental regulation is neither unusual nor unique to Ethiopia.

“Rental controls have cushioned households from steep increases in many countries, though the ceiling’s success depends on one condition, keeping annual inflation below 10pc,” he told Fortune, arguing that regulatory intervention is unavoidable for now. “If we allow landlords to set prices unchecked, the vast majority of people, particularly salaried workers, the middle class and the poor, will be pushed onto the streets.”

Not everyone agrees. Atlaw Alemu (PhD), an economist at Addis Abeba University’s Department of Business & Economics, questioned the case for regulatory intervention, arguing rents should be set by the market.

“The crisis comes from supply constraints rather than high prices, driven by soaring construction costs and the demolitions of the past two years that tightened an already limited supply,” he said.

Atlaw would want to see a policy of fewer controls and a greater focus on replacing demolished housing, speeding up the delivery of affordable units, and expanding supply.

“Ultimately, this will end up harming both landlords and tenants alike,” he said, criticising a development drive “tilted towards high-end projects beyond most residents’ reach.”

That double bind is embodied in Tewabech Hailu, 44, who rents out a one-bedroom condominium in the Bole Arabsa area for 8,500 Br while paying 4,000 Br for the house she lives in, property owner and tenant at once. She saw a government that believes the proposed adjustment is a “balanced rate that can cool the market”, but does not reflect what owners face. With the city officials signalling rental increases should not top 11pc, uncertainty runs high, tenants bracing for higher charges, and lessors unclear how the policy will work.

Underneath sits a housing deficit estimated at more than one million units. Rapid urbanisation and household formation continue to widen the gap between demand and supply, according to studies by the Ethiopian Statistical Service and the United Nations. No national census has been held since 2007, when the Population & Housing Census recorded more than two million renters in Addis Abeba, over 1.2 million of whom were in privately rented homes. A 2016 review found that rental housing accounted for 54pc of urban residences nationwide and more than 61pc in the capital. By 2025, projections put at least 60pc of the city’s households in rental arrangements as tenants or owners.

For Negash, any rise, even within the ceiling, bites.

“It will drain my pocket,” he told Fortune.

Manalush Alemu, a veteran urban planner and former head of the Land & Development Bureau in Lideta District, echoed Atlaw while urging a longer view. Rather than administrative controls, she pressed the government to tackle the roots of the shortage by accelerating public housing, promoting satellite cities, and drawing private investment into housing through finance, serviced land, and incentives.

“The recent adjustment is unfair to both landlords and tenants,” Manalush told Fortune. “The proposed adjustment would neither be fair nor sustainable. The government should act as a facilitator, not a price setter.”

Manalush sees a capital that continues to attract migrants with its more robust infrastructure, security, and opportunities, while other centres cannot compete.

“If Ethiopia had several competitive urban centres, demand for housing in Addis Abeba would be lower,” she said.

Excessive intervention, she warned, has historically discouraged investment and weakened the incentive to maintain property.

For now, the market sits where it began, between forces that pull against each other. Tsehay waits on her property for a decision that may or may not allow her to ask what her neighbours do. Negash waits in Lebu for one that could push a rise onto a budget with no more give. The system is still searching for an equilibrium between the market and the rules, without yet satisfying either side.

The New Gold Standard Comes with a Warning Label

Posted on July 5, 2026July 9, 2026 by Digital Editor

In the goldfields of the Benishangul-Gumuz Regional State, Ethiopia’s balance-of-payments problem has taken human form.

Around Asosa, Kamashi and Metekel, on the greenstone belt running towards the Sudanese border, gold was long the work of hand tools, riverbeds and family labour. At least 35pc of the region’s people depended on traditional mining, and much of what they produced once left the country through shadow channels.

Now the hills are crowded with a different kind of miner. Addis Abeba money has arrived with excavators, washing plants, crews and licences, and the confidence of people who see gold less as a livelihood than an asset class.

As recently as 2023, the region held only 30 artisanal and 77 special small-scale mining licences. It has since registered 421 associations and more than 5,000 licensed artisanal miners, many of whom are in cooperatives large enough to qualify for the Central Bank’s incentives. The old artisanal economy has not disappeared. It is being overwhelmed.

The rush is not irrational, but the market is responding to a price signal too loud to ignore. The National Bank of Ethiopia’s (NBE) buying price for 24-karat gold jumped from 3,901 Br a gram in January 2024 to 20,607 Br by October 2025, more than fivefold in under two years.

Two shocks, a global bullion rally and the flotation of the Birr, produced it. Gold became one of the most lucrative legal activities open to Ethiopians with modest capital, especially where the state’s reach is uneven.

The bigger change is that the money is now inside the formal channel. The old arbitrage worked against the state. In Asosa, the Central Bank once paid about 3,800 Br a gram while the parallel market paid 5,800 Br to 6,000 Br and Sudanese buyers paid as much as 10,000 Br.

The Birr float, better terms and a 15pc top-up for submissions of five kilograms or more inverted that logic and made the legal route competitive. The threshold has also rewarded consolidation, favouring cooperatives and connected aggregators over lone diggers.

This should be why the boom should be read with care. Ethiopia did not discover a new mountain of gold, but the cost of years of mispriced currency.

Official exports leapt in 2024/25 to about 38tn, worth about 3.5 billion dollars, against 3.9tn a year earlier. Gold earnings surged from about 300 million dollars to about 42pc of total forex earnings of 8.3 billion dollars. For the first time, gold surpassed coffee, the country’s emblematic export.

The rebound reverses a long decline. A decade ago, official exports topped 12,000kg and earned about 600 million dollars. By 2018, the suspension of Midroc’s Lega Dembi mine and a widening parallel-market premium had cut export income to 32 million dollars. Even after policy lifted the Central Bank’s premium above world prices, informal channels offered margins of 100pc, and by 2023 official exports had fallen to 4.2tn, with about six tonnes a year smuggled through Sudan to the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Then the exchange-rate regime broke. By 2024, the gap between the official and parallel rates had passed 100pc, so selling gold to the state meant accepting a badly undervalued Brewed Buck.

The July 2024 float narrowed it, signalling that the result was not a production miracle but a formalisation shock, as gold that had moved through contraband routes returned to the official books. A decomposition of the boom points to quantity, not price, with about 45.5pc of the rise coming from higher volumes and only about five percent from prices.

A production miracle is durable, whereas formalisation shock is conditional. It lasts only as long as miners and traders believe the official price is credible, payments are prompt, and the Birr they receive is safe from another parallel-market premium. The gold boom is as much a referendum on monetary credibility as a celebration of mineral wealth.

To be sure, the hard currency is real and should be welcomed. Gold’s share of gross domestic product (GDP) is modest, about three percent, but that is the wrong measure. Ethiopia’s constraint is not domestic output, but foreign exchange.

Where imports of fuel, fertiliser, medicines and debt service compete for scarce dollars, gold matters because it is liquid, globally priced and quickly convertible. Reserves grew from 1.1 billion dollars in June 2024 to 3.4 billion a year later, and according to the IMF’s latest estimate, nearly four billion dollars in 2025/26.

Gold helps finance a chronic current account deficit, supports the reserve targets of the IMF programme, and eases debt service. Undoubtedly, it buys time.

Time, though, is not transformation. The global market has been unusually kind, with bullion up about 42pc in the first three quarters of 2025. Ethiopia missed the earlier rally because its regime pushed supply into contraband, and only caught this one because policy reforms aligned domestic incentives with the world price.

Yet no country controls the gold price, as the price drop over the past two weeks has demonstrated. If stabilisation comes to depend on bullion, a fall in the world price becomes a problem at home.

There is a distributional problem too, a contest over ground, water, licences and influence, as well as a competition for scarce fuel supply. Unless the rules are transparent, the boom will not merely reveal Ethiopia’s mineral wealth. It will intensify the contest over it.

Traditional miners are outcompeted for washing sites and water, about 40pc of the region’s small-scale mining workers carry dangerously high mercury levels, and provenance is uncertain. In the Tigray Regional State, which supplied 51pc of the gold in 2024/25, worth about 1.8 billion dollars, the origin of the gold remains murky, even as deliveries continued while regional mining was formally suspended and revenue-sharing stayed unresolved.

Industrial mines are coming, too. Kurmuk should yield about nine tonnes a year and Tulu Kapi about five tonnes from 2027.

However, about 1.3 million people mine artisanally, indirectly supporting eight million more. Handled well, gold can rebuild reserves, steady the Birr and ease debt service. Handled badly, it can deepen rent-seeking, poison rivers, displace local miners, fuel conflict and tempt policymakers to postpone diversification.

Coffee, still worth well over 1.4 billion dollars a year, is under pressure; leather and textiles are weak. A country cannot build lasting competitiveness by trading one export dependency for another.

The gold industry needs a national resource map, modern traceability, transparent licensing, reliable environmental enforcement and a fiscal regime that makes formal participation easier than smuggling. Enforcement is necessary but not sufficient. Illegal traders win when they pay faster and ask fewer questions. The formal system wins only when it is competitive, credible and clean.

The lesson of the past decade is evident. When the exchange rate was wrong, Ethiopia’s gold exports diminished; when incentives improved, they returned. Coffee built the country’s export identity; gold may now be financing its adjustment. That is not a failure but an opening, and openings close.

The next real test is whether the state can turn a windfall into a system. Gold has become the economy’s hard-currency lifeline. It must not become its illusion.

Ethiopian Weighs Three Jets, Three Maps

Posted on July 5, 2026July 7, 2026 by Digital Editor

The Ethiopian Airlines Group is preparing to place a firm order for 25 aircraft next month, and the choice it makes will shape the next phase of its fleet for years to come.

The continent’s largest carrier is weighing three narrow bodies against one another, the Airbus A220, the Boeing 737 MAX 7 and the Embraer E195-E2, each of which answers a different question about where and how the Airline wants to grow. The decision is a study in trade-offs for an airline that has 171 aircraft in operation, serving passengers and cargo.

The A220 offers the most passenger-friendly cabin and strong fuel efficiency on short- to medium-haul routes, which makes it attractive for thinner international routes and domestic flying. Aviation experts see the 737 MAX 7 giving Ethiopian a higher-capacity option and greater fleet commonality if it chooses to stay within the Boeing family. However, the E195-E2 offers a lower-capital-cost alternative with strong operating economics for regional routes and smaller markets.

“We’re comparing them currently,” Lemma Yadecha, the chief commercial officer, confirmed to Fortune.

The technical gap between the three is clearest in the trade-off between range and fuel burn. The Boeing 737 MAX 7 leads the group with a range of 7,130Km, 13.2pc farther than the Airbus A220-300’s 6,297Km and well ahead of the Embraer E195-E2’s 4,800Km.

That reach is based on a total thrust of 238 kN and the widest cabin in the segment, at 3.53 metres, which allows for a maximum of 172 passengers. It is also the heaviest of the three, with a maximum take-off weight of 80,285kg and fuel consumption of nearly 3,047 litres an hour.

The Embraer trades range for the economy. It records the lowest fuel burn of the three, between 2,000 and 2,500 litres an hour, and although it is the longest aircraft at 41.5 metres, it is the lightest, with a maximum take-off weight of 61.5tn, about 23.4pc below the Boeing.

The Airbus A220-300 sits in the middle, burning between 2,200 and 2,900 litres an hour while matching Boeing’s maximum operating altitude of 41,000 feet.

The final call, the Airline’s senior management has signalled, will turn on its wider strategy, weighing long-range expansion against lower operating costs, better fuel efficiency and reduced carbon emissions.

The three profiles trace three different maps. The Boeing suits longer, denser sectors, the Embraer the thinnest regional hops, and the Airbus the ground in between. Ethiopian has to decide which of those networks it most wants to fly.

The choice is sharpened by what a choice of Embraer would represent. If Ethiopian selects the E195-E2, it will be the first time the Airline adds the Brazilian manufacturer’s aircraft to its fleet, a break from a fleet long built around Boeing and Airbus.

“We’ll decide the order by next month,” said Lemma.

Embraer has made its pitch in writing. According to the manufacturer, the E195-E2 is “the most efficient aircraft in its category” and is “well-suited to expanding connectivity and increasing flight frequency across Ethiopia.

“The Pratt & Whitney engine has shown stronger reliability than on competing aircraft under African operating conditions,” said the company in an written response to Fortune.

However, Embraer declined to discuss the procurement further, confirming only that it remains in contact with the Airline.

Ethiopian Airlines intends to deploy the new aircraft on regional and domestic routes. Yet the order arrives at an awkward moment for the industry it must buy from.

The global aircraft manufacturing sector is struggling with a backlog of tens of thousands of aircraft. According to aviation experts, African airlines continue to face some of the longest delivery delays due to financing constraints, limited production capacity, and supply shortages.

An order placed into a queue of about 18,000 aircraft can wait years for delivery, and the longer the wait, the longer Ethiopian keeps older, thirstier jets in the air, paying the very costs a new fleet is meant to cut.

The pressure is financial as much as logistical. Supply-chain disruptions are projected to cost carriers more than 11 billion dollars in 2025, and researchers at the International Air Transport Association (IATA) trace the losses to four main drivers.

Excess fuel expenses, estimated at 4.2 billion dollars, are rising as airlines keep older, less fuel-efficient aircraft in service due to delayed deliveries. Maintenance costs are expected to increase by 3.1 billion dollars as ageing fleets need more frequent and costlier repairs. Engine leasing expenses, projected at 2.6 billion dollars, keep climbing as engines spend longer in the shop, forcing airlines to lease replacements at far higher rates, with lease prices up by 20pc to 30pc since 2019.

Surplus inventory costs of 1.4 billion dollars complete the tally, as carriers stockpile spare parts to cushion against unpredictable disruptions.

The four sums total about 11.3 billion dollars, and their impact extends well beyond the balance sheet. The same bottlenecks are limiting the number of aircraft airlines can deploy to meet rising demand. In 2024, passenger demand increased by 10.4pc, outpacing capacity growth of 8.7pc and pushing average load factors to a record 83.5pc.

The imbalance is expected to persist as demand continues to outrun available capacity.

Industry observers argue that the crisis derives from a fragile aerospace manufacturing base, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, raw material shortages, and persistent labour constraints.

IATA’s report calls on original-equipment manufacturers, lessors and suppliers to work more closely with airlines to strengthen supply chains and close the widening gap between demand and production. Without decisive action, it warns, the slow pace of deliveries risks holding back growth at a time when appetite for air travel remains strong.

For airlines, prolonged bottlenecks threaten to raise costs, cap capacity and weaken profits. For Ethiopian Airlines, the calculation is complicated by the peculiarities of its own market.

Aviation expert Yonathan Menkir, a pilot who flies commercial and founder of the Aerospace Club, says the distinctive behaviour of domestic passengers, marked by high volumes of checked baggage, puts an aircraft such as the E195-E2 at a disadvantage because of its relatively limited cargo hold.

He argued that on limited regional routes, the Embraer’s economics could be compelling, but a cabin of passengers whose bags fill and overflow the belly is a poor match for an aircraft built to carry people more than freight. That single trait can outweigh a spreadsheet, where an aircraft that wins on fuel burn but leaves paying cargo on the tarmac earns less than its efficiency suggests.

“Staying within the Boeing family brings real benefits through fleet commonality and larger procurement volumes, while adding a new type raises operational complexity,” Yonathan said. “A new model demands investment in pilot and technician training, dedicated flight simulators and separate maintenance inventories.”

“The choice, in the end, is less about which aircraft is best than about which fits Ethiopian’s route map and its market,” said Yonathan. “The Airline’s decision will ultimately depend on whether the long-term costs of training and maintenance outweigh the operational advantages each model offers in serving a domestic market with heavy cargo needs.”

Ethio telecom Stock Doubles as Sellers Stay Away

Posted on July 5, 2026July 7, 2026 by Digital Editor

Ethio telecom’s shares have climbed to 852 Br in Ethiopian Securities Exchange (ESX), 143pc above the 300 Br offer price set at its landmark debut at the Skylight Hotel in May this year, as strong retail demand continues to outpace limited supply.

The move has nearly doubled the listing price within weeks, not because the company’s story has changed but because too few holders are willing to sell.

Trading opened with modest movement across the banking and telecom counters. Yet, a shortage of sellers opened a persistent price gap, with retail buyers pushing the stock up in increments of five to 10 Br. In a market this young, the price is being set less by valuation than by scarcity, and Ethio telecom has become the test case for both the promise and the fragility of early equity trading.

The company reached the public through a landmark initial public offering (IPO), in which the government floated 10pc of its shares. The sale raised 3.2 billion Br from 47,377 investors, who took up nearly 10.7 million ordinary shares. The proceeds fell short of the government’s 30 billion Br target, but executives cast the turnout of nearly 47,000 citizens as a milestone for an emerging capital market.

The latest surge follows four weeks of heightened volatility, during which the total market capitalisation of traded firms passed one billion Birr. Liquidity was lifted by Awash Bank’s share sale and by the Ethiopian Capital Market Authority’s (ECMA) Investors Day, which drew younger buyers.

Expectations around Ethio telecom’s performance report and its move to a share company have tightened supply further, as holders keep their positions in anticipation of higher prices.

Abreham Terecha, CEO of Gadaa Securities, calls it a “hyper-demand” environment driven by retail speculation rather than institutional activity.

“The absence of institutional sellers has let small orders push the stock past 700 Br toward 800 Br, after earlier incremental buying carried it to about 711 Br,” he told Fortune.

He believes that rising awareness, aggressive promotion, and greater use of technology among younger investors have reinforced holding rather than selling.

“With almost everyone buying and almost no one selling, each small trade resets the price higher,” Abreham said.

Rapid appreciation has exposed operational bottlenecks. Brokers report delays in verifying ownership before executing sell orders. Gadaa Securities has to confirm holdings with Ethio telecom before forwarding transactions to the Central Securities Depository (CSD), thereby slowing settlement.

Ethio telecom’s Chief Communication Officer, Messay Woubshet, disclosed that the dematerialisation of shares is almost complete, and that the delays “come largely from incomplete documentation submitted by shareholders” rather than any system failure. Internal teams respond within one business day, except on bulk submissions, with completed records synchronised with the CSD.

The company’s financials continue to feed the optimism.

Ethio telecom’s revenue from customer contracts surged from 59.4 billion Br in 2022 to 91.4 billion Br two years later, a 54pc gain, led by telecom services, which accounted for 95.9pc of the total. The mobile money service, Telebirr, grew rapidly, reaching 47.5 million subscribers and increasing revenue from 6 million Br to 2.3 billion Br over the period.

Average mobile voice subscribers reached 72.6 million in 2024, and data revenue grew at a 20.5pc compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the two years beginning in 2022. The spread of 4G coverage to 424 cities and a 5G pilot in Addis Abeba and Dire Dawa supported the growth, while infrastructure sharing generated 1.47 billion Br in 2024 under the 2022 agreement with Safaricom.

Dividend expectations add to the pull. As a public enterprise, Ethio telecom transferred 60pc of net profit to the government. After its transfer to the Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH), it is expected to pay out 70pc as dividends and retain 30pc for operations and investment. For the year ended June 2024, it declared a 9.67 billion Br dividend, a 50.9pc payout ratio.

The conversion into a share company on July 1, 2024, enabled the IPO and a future listing on the Ethiopian Securities Exchange (ESX), and set authorised capital at 100 billion Br, divided into one billion shares of 100 Br each. After the 10pc sale, EIH keeps 90pc ownership and control of strategic direction.

Attention has turned to a General Assembly scheduled for September to November this year, as investors await the ESX opening. Debate centres on dividends, since new shareholders will not receive a payout for the fiscal year ending July 2025 despite record revenue of 162 billion Br, and the 12 billion Br dividend for the previous year went solely to the federal government.

This leaves the new buyers, who have paid the steepest prices, waiting a year or more for their first payout, a gap between price and reward that sits at the centre of the debate. At the listing, Chief Executive Officer, Frehiwot Tamiru, said dividends would begin in the 2025/26 financial year, with audit results expected in August and the General Assembly to confirm the dividend policy.

According to Andualem Hailu (PhD), CEO of Awash Capital Investment Bank, Ethio telecom shares remain accessible compared with other securities, even after the surge. He disclosed that retail demand for Ethio Telecom at Awash capital had ranged from 30 to 3,000 shares, and the removal of investor caps may have widened participation in Ethio telecom.

Elsewhere, the market has been quiet. Bank stocks have held steady despite strong earnings or governance changes, with Awash Bank’s results barely moving its price and Abay Bank’s board changes leaving little mark.

Activity has slowed, too, as last week brought 146 trades across five companies, involving 6,847 shares worth 12 million Br, down from 149 trades and 14,595 shares worth more than 31 million Br the week before.

Activity had peaked during Awash Bank’s share sale, with 279 trades and more than 350,000 shares changing hands for over one billion Birr. In early June, 114 trades moved 10,147 shares worth 18 million Br. At the close, Abay Bank was 1,800 Br, Wegagen 1,300 Br, Awash Bank 2,955 Br and Gadaa Bank 1,165 Br.

Observers are divided over whether the rally rests on fundamentals or on speculation.

Yoseph Alemayehu, an academic and financial-systems practitioner with experience in accounting, financial reporting, and International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), argued it is the latter, pointing to the muted reaction to earnings elsewhere, while Ethio telecom climbed on the expectation of continued gains.

“Many investors are trading without reading prospectuses or applying valuation tools, when share value should rest on capital gains and sustainable dividends, tested against debt, equity structure and profitability,” he said.

He noted that Ethio telecom has paid no dividend to private shareholders and earns less than several domestic banks despite its dominance, and warns that unchecked speculation could erode market confidence if investors take losses without grasping the risks. He called on regulators and market actors to do more to educate investors on both risk and opportunity.

As the nascent capital market takes shape, Ethio telecom remains its central reference point, carrying the promise and the fragility of early trading. Strong revenue growth, digital expansion and dividend hopes sustain the optimism, but a price this high leaves little room for disappointment.

For now, limited supply and strong retail demand keep the momentum going, making it the most closely watched equity in the country’s market.

Six Homebuyers Take Noah Real Estate to Court

Posted on July 5, 2026July 8, 2026 by Digital Editor

A lawsuit at the federal courts has turned a quiet quarrel between one of the country’s largest property developers and its homebuyers into an open legal fight.

Six buyers have taken Noah Real Estate Plc to court over apartments they say they paid for in full but never received, and over fresh payment demands the developer attached to a late change in how their units were measured. They filed a 50 million Br lawsuit.

The fight turns on a single and deceptively technical question.

Who should pay when a property’s registered size grows on paper after it has already been built and sold?

For the buyer, the deal was uncomplicated, a set apartment at a set price. For the developer, the deed that finally arrived comprises a bigger unit than the one it had contracted to sell, and it wants the difference paid. The gap between them is now measured in millions of Birr and years of waiting.

The six plaintiffs – Tamrat Gezahegn, Fitsum Seged Teklehaimanot, Lemlem Tewoldeberhan (MD), Genet Derese, Meseret Girmachew and Daniel Belachew – appealed to judges at the Federal High Court Lideta Division Civil Bench that they had completed their payments yet still held no keys. Represented by Legacy Law Firm, founded and managed by Temesgen Gebre Sellassie, they are pleading with judges to force the handover of homes they consider fully bought.

They may not be the last to do so. Several other buyer coalitions are reported to be preparing parallel suits, a sign that the case could widen into a broader reckoning for the developer.

The disputed homes sit in Noah Victory Apartment, in the Aware area near Women’s Roundabout, a development spanning 1,850Sqm around a 19-storey residential tower and part of Noah Real Estate’s wider portfolio in Addis Abeba.

Construction began six years ago against an original three-year timeline, and handover came only last May, when the developer announced that 1,341 buyers and business owners had received keys across its Noah Asqual (Enqulal Fabrika) and Noah Victory (Se’toch Adebabay) projects. The six plaintiffs were not among them.

Noah Real Estate operates under Z Plc, founded in 1995 by Zerihun Lakew and his family. It is now led by Tewodros Zerihun, chief executive officer (CEO), and one of Zerihun’s sons, a businessman long known for his landmark property bearing his name on Haile Gebresellasie Road, near 22-Mazoria.

The quarter-century-old Zerihun Building was a multi-purpose complex on a 2,400Sqm plot, before the family erected a new building still under construction.

The group reaches well beyond property. It also owns Great Abyssinia, a fast-moving consumer goods company whose brands include Abyssinia Coffee, Abyssinia Bottled Water, and Prigat Juice, as well as Yekatit Paper Converting & Cool Manufacturing.

At the centre of the legal battle lies the question of whether the developer may demand more money before handover once a unit’s registered size changes. The plaintiffs argue that nothing beyond the original contract is owed. The developer counters that the extra fees flow directly from the Land Bureau’s registration of property areas, not from any of its own decisions.

According to the plaintiffs, their sales contracts set out both the total price and the exact square footage of each apartment at the time of signing. After construction was finished, they say, the Land Development Bureau folded proportional shares of common areas, parking spaces, corridors, elevators and balconies into the registered size of each unit when it issued title deeds.

The recorded apartments came out larger than the contracts specified. On that larger figure, the developer billed for the additional square metres, which the buyers say run into millions of Birr.

The buyers refuse to pay, arguing that nothing new was built. The common areas existed all along, they say, and their appearance in the deeds is an administrative reclassification, not extra floor space to be sold twice.

Their lawyer asks the court for a long list of remedies. They want the developer compelled to hand over the finished, fully paid apartments, and title deeds that reflect only the net square footage in the original agreements. They want the sales contracts finalised and registered once corrected deeds are issued, and any repair costs at handover reimbursed.

They want the units delivered with electricity, water, and sewage fully installed, and their right to claim compensation for any future costs of securing those utilities preserved. They also pressed for proof that all public and private debts tied to the properties have been settled before handover, for damages for the delay beyond the contracted 36-month completion period, and for their litigation costs to be covered.

The plaintiffs are asking the court to guarantee clean deeds, working utilities, settled debts and cover for costs not yet incurred, the checklist of customers who no longer take the developer’s word for it.

Noah Real Estate, represented by Yoseph Desta Law Office, dismisses the suit as “baseless.” Its defence rests on a clause. The contract, it argued, carries a 10pc tolerance margin, under which buyers may cancel only if the delivered space falls short of the agreed amount.

Above that line, it maintains that nothing in the contract bars an upward adjustment, and that the growth in registered area came from the Land Bureau’s mapping and registration method rather than from the company.

The developer asks the court either to order the buyers to pay the extra amount and take their apartments, or to cancel the contracts outright.

The developer pushes back on the rest of the claim, too. Issuing ownership documents, it argued, is the legal duty of the Land Bureau and cannot be forced onto the company. On finalising the contracts, it states that the buyers have to meet their own obligations before any enforcement can follow. And it brushes aside the demand for future losses as “speculative and unproven.”

The Bench first referred the matter to mediation. That process ended without agreement, and the case is now set for a hearing this week.

Addis Abeba Orders Its Big Spenders Off Paper

Posted on July 5, 2026July 7, 2026 by Digital Editor

The Addis Abeba City Administration has ordered its 48 largest-spending agencies to stop buying on paper, which comprises 22pc of the city administrative units.

From July 8, the start of the new fiscal year, the city’s high-volume procuring entities will have to run every purchase through the Electronic Government Procurement (eGP) platform, abandoning the manual tenders that officials say have long been a channel for waste and graft.

The mandate is the boldest test yet of whether a piece of software can do what oversight has struggled to, close the loopholes of manual buying. It arrives as the capital prepares to spend more public money than ever before.

Manual tenders have long carried a reputation for favouring the connected and hiding the trail. Mayor Adanech Abiebie’s Administration is wagering that forcing every transaction onto a screen will leave less room for deals struck off-screen.

The order comes from the city’s Finance Bureau, headed by Abdulkadir Redwan. A letter signed by the Bureau’s Deputy Head, Yoseph Tale, informed the 48 bureau heads that the groundwork laid during the closing fiscal year had left them ready to migrate, and instructed them to discontinue manual procurement immediately and conduct all future purchases through the eGP system.

Officials frame the shift as a drive to cut financial waste, tighten budget discipline and curb the corrupt practices long associated with conventional procurement. The institutions were chosen for the scale of their spending and their technological readiness.

The reach is substantial. The Revenue Bureau under Biniyam Mikiru; the Land Development & Administration Bureau under Mekonen Yaie; the Fire & Disaster Risk Management Commission led by Ahmed Mohammed (Commissioner); the Housing Development Corporation headed by Thomas Debele (Eng.); and, the Civil Registration & Residency Service Agency under Yosef Nigusie are included in the new requirement. Several district administrations, among them Qirkos, Lideta, Addis Ketema and Nifas Silk-Lafto, are also folded in.

Addis Abeba runs 217 public administrative structures, 87 sectoral bureaus, 11 district administrations and 119 woredas. The directive marks a sharp expansion of digital procurement across the Administration. Until recently, only 13 city agencies, including the Mayor’s Office, had been buying through the platform.

The city Administration allocated 174.2 billion Br, 75.6pc of the total budget, to sectoral offices in the 2024/25 fiscal year. Construction received the largest single allocation under capital expenditure, with 38.7 billion Br. Water and sewerage followed with 18.3 billion Br, while education was allocated 18 billion Br.

Road development and health were the next-largest spending areas, at 17.9 billion Br and 12 billion Br, respectively.

The eGP platform is a nationally developed system that manages the full procurement cycle, letting an institution plan, announce, evaluate and award a contract in centralised place. When an agency wants to buy goods or services, it posts the notice online, and suppliers download the tender documents, submit bids electronically and take part remotely, without carrying paper to a counter.

City officials say that widens competition to firms across the country while trimming administrative cost.

The approach is not new to government. The federal state adopted eGP several years ago, and the overwhelming majority of federal purchases now run through it. The platform was built by Perago Information Systems Plc, an Addis Abeba based technology company founded in 2013 that supplies source-to-pay systems, including electronic procurement and invoicing, to governments and large firms.

Perago built the federal platform before customising a version for the city, though that version, completed nearly two years ago, has come into use only in parts. The directive is, in effect, an order to close that gap. A tool built and paid for two years ago has sat only half-used, and the city Administration is now compelling its heaviest spenders to switch it fully on.

The case for the change rests on money and integrity. According to Petros Seyoum, head of the eGP Project Office, widening the system should improve budget efficiency while narrowing the room for corruption.

“Studies of electronic procurement show institutions saving between five percent and 25pc of their procurement budgets once they adopt it,” Petros told Fortune. “It also widens supplier participation. Instead of relying on a limited number of bidders, institutions receive offers from many suppliers, giving them greater choice and stronger competition.”

He argued that moving procurement online strips out many of the openings for graft that manual systems leave.

“When procurement is conducted electronically, many of the loopholes associated with manual processes disappear,” he said. “E-GP is a preferable system.”

However, he acknowledged that the migration has met resistance to change, limited digital literacy among procurement staff and gaps in technological infrastructure.

The decision to go fully digital comes as the City Administration prepares its largest budget to date, a 502 billion Br bill for 2026/27 fiscal year approved by the City Cabinet, which lifts spending on infrastructure and social services while promising firmer financial management.

The city, previously left out of federal subsidy arrangements, has been folded back into the funding framework, though its allocation stays modest, at less than a quarter of a billion Birr. Under the approved budget, 71pc of spending is earmarked for poverty-reduction programmes and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including roads, housing, water and subsidised health and education for low-income residents.

City officials see wider electronic procurement as central to spending that far larger budget cleanly and to account for every Birr of it.

Procurement specialists have welcomed the decision.

Gebeyaw Yitayih, a former staff member of the Federal Public Procurement & Property Authority, called it an “encouraging move” toward modern public purchasing.

“The transition makes public spending transparent and open to every qualified supplier, rather than the narrow circles that manual tenders often serve,” he said. “It also lightens the load on business, sparing bidders the cost of travelling to collect documents and file proposals, and the outlays on transport, fuel and printing that come with them.”

The gains, he believes, run in two directions. A larger pool of bidders lets institutions compare more competitive offers, raising the odds of better prices and higher-quality works bought with public money. And unlike paper files, which can be lost, altered or manipulated, an electronic system leaves a permanent record that auditors can review at every stage.

“It limits situations where procurement opportunities are known only to a few individuals or companies,” Gebeyaw said. “Instead, every qualified supplier can bid on equal terms without requiring personal connections.”

Yet he cautioned that technology alone cannot carry the result. Drawing on the federal rollout, he warned that weak digital literacy and shaky infrastructure remain the biggest obstacles to wider use.

“The city Administration should focus on building robust infrastructure to support the system,” he said. “Experience at the federal level showed that high traffic occasionally caused the platform to slow down or disconnect.”

Tenders for construction works, which require bidders to move unusually large technical files, strain it further, and success will depend as much on training procurement staff as on the software itself. The mandate can compel institutions to log on, but not, on its own, teach thousands of officials to run the system or guarantee the bandwidth to keep it up and running.

City officials appear undeterred. According to Petros, the long-term plan is to migrate all public procurement activities in the capital to the eGP platform within five years, one of the most ambitious public-sector digital projects the city has attempted to date.

A Calm Rates Quote Hides a Split Forex Market

Posted on July 5, 2026July 8, 2026 by Digital Editor

The Brewed Buck spent last week’s foreign-exchange market calmer than the underlying conditions suggested. There was no auction by the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) last week, yet the market did not show the gapping that usually signals shortage-driven repricing.

Last week displayed a Birr that barely moved on paper. Beneath the calm, it stayed split between posted stability and scarcity.

The dollar barely moved. The average buying rate increased from 158.67 Br on June 29 to 158.89 Br five days later, a depreciation of 0.22 Br, about 0.14pc, and the average selling rate edged up from 161.73 Br to 161.96 Br. Over the six days, the buying average was 158.79 Br and the selling average 161.86 Br.

The apparent stability was the story. The official market was not frozen, but it was not clearing in the usual sense either. Posted rates unveiled a managed crawl, with banks adjusting screens enough to show movement but not enough to establish a new reference point. Its centre of gravity stayed near 159 Br on the buying side and above 162 Br on the selling side.

By July 4, the average buying rate was 159.03 Br and the average selling rate 162.15 Br, with most banks in a narrow band.

Oromia Bank remained the clear outlier at the top, with its buying rate unchanged at 162.73 Br and its selling rate at 165.99 Br, the highest quoted rates each day. On July 4, Oromia Bank’s buying rate was 3.85 Br above the market average, 4.92 Br above the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE), and 8.24 Br above Tsehay Bank, the lowest quote.

The gap was too large for ordinary positioning. Oromia Bank looked less like part of the cluster than a premium-rate marker, possibly signalling a stronger appetite for inflows.

At the other end, Tsehay Bank was the lowest bidder throughout, at 154.49 Br buying and 157.58 Br selling, 4.39 Br below the market average on July 4. Hijra Bank was second-lowest at 155.49 Br, 3.39 Br below average. Their quotes looked less like competitive rates than low-activity, where the posted price exists but voluntary dollar sellers are scarce.

The Central Bank was an anomaly of a different sort. The National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) posted a zero spread, its buying and selling rates equal at 158.99 Br on Saturday, about 4.50 Br above Tsehay Bank’s buying rate but well below Oromia Bank’s top quote. Its zero spread should not be read against commercial margins, because it is not a normal dealer. The posting reads better as a reference signal, and it distorts selling-rate averages, since most banks apply a two percent spread while the Central Bank does not.

The state-owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) moved more visibly than most, its buying rate increasing from 157.01 Br to 157.81 Br, a gain of 0.80 Br, and its selling rate by 0.81 Br to 160.97 Br.

That was one of the sharper changes last week, yet the Bank stayed among the lower-priced, signalling gradual catch-up rather than an aggressive bid. It kept the largest public lender below the private cluster, where the state bank does not set the upper price.

The big private banks varied more, with the Bank of Abyssinia (BOA) moving cautiously, lifting its buying rate by only 0.025 Br to 159.12 Br, barely crossing the 159 Br threshold. Dashen Bank climbed to 158.68 Br and Awash Bank to 158.66 Br, both below 159 Br. However, Awash Bank’s July 2 quote briefly showed a 1.81pc spread, the only deviation from the standard two percent, likely a data anomaly, since it returned to the pattern afterwards.

Wegagen and Zemen banks were more assertive last week.

Wegagen Bank moved from 159.62 Br to 159.8 Br, keeping it in the upper tier. Zemen Bank mattered more, for it began at 159.8 Br, crossed the 160 Br threshold on July 1, and ended at 160.28 Br, selling at 163.49 Br, the second bank to trade above 160 Br on the buying side, behind Oromia Bank. This made Zemen Bank the real marginal price setter among the large private banks, as Oromia Bank’s rate has remained static for weeks.

The private-bank market fell into four behavioural groups.

Oromia Bank stood alone as the premium outlier. Zemen and Wegagen banks formed the upper active tier, Zemen Bank pushing above 160 Br and Wegagen Bank close behind.

A middle cluster, including Bunna, Global Bank Ethiopia, Goh Betoch, Amhara Bank, Berhan and Addis Bank, sat around 159.58 Br to 159.64 Br with little change. A lower cluster, including CBE, Nib, Siinqee, the Development Bank of Ethiopia (DBE), Coop Bank, Dashen and Awash, stayed around or below the market average, from more conservative pricing or weaker urgency to compete for dollar inflows.

The fixed-rate banks revealed more. Amhara Bank, Berhan, DBE, Gadaa, Global Bank Ethiopia, Anbessa, Oromia Bank and Tsehay showed no change in either rate throughout. In a liquid market, such stability would signal confidence. In the constrained, high-demand forex market, it is more likely to reflect controlled quoting rather than an equilibrium.

The missing auction did not push them to reprice, implying little pressure to chase dollars or rates unresponsive to demand.

The most aggressive adjustments came from banks with room to catch up. Ahadu Bank increased its rate by 0.82 Br, Coop Bank by 0.81 Br and CBE by 0.80 Br. These looked large against the week’s average, but began from lower bases and did not redraw the upper boundary. Zemen Bank did.

The selling side was almost entirely mechanical. With most banks holding a two percent spread, the selling hierarchy mirrored the buying one, from Oromia Bank’s 165.99 Br to Tsehay Bank’s 157.58 Br. The Central Bank’s zero-spread 158.99 Br again sat awkwardly among the low-end quotes, reinforcing its role as a reference.

Last week, the forex market was stable but segmented. Banks were not competing in a disorderly fashion, yet dispersion was wide. On July 4, the gap between the extreme buying and selling rates was 8.23 Br and 8.4 Br, respectively.

It revealed that posted rates carried more institutional signalling than price discovery. Some banks were advertising appetite, others conserving liquidity, and a few posting rates unlikely to attract supply.

Oromia Bank was at the top; Zemen assertive; Wegagen close behind, a thick middle around 159 Br; CBE and smaller banks below average, and Tsehay and Hijra banks at the low end.

Prime Capital Joins ESX, Seeks Securities Dealership Licence

Posted on July 5, 2026July 6, 2026 by Digital Editor

Prime Capital has secured trading membership on the Ethiopian Securities Exchange (ESX) and is pursuing a securities dealership licence to expand its brokerage and investment banking services, according to Head of Business Development and Marketing Fikremarkos.

The firm received its trading membership after obtaining an investment banking licence from the Ethiopian Capital Market Authority (ECMA) and meeting all ESX requirements. The licence authorises Prime Capital to execute securities transactions on behalf of investors in Ethiopia’s organised capital market.

Established in 2023/24, Prime Capital became the country’s sixth licensed investment bank and the second independent one after First Addis Investment Bank, joining bank-owned peers including CBE Capital and Awash Capital.

Parliament Ratifies Tax Amendment, Assigns PMO to Lead Conciliation, Imposes 10pc Penalty on Late Evidence

Posted on July 5, 2026July 6, 2026 by Digital Editor

The Prime Minister’s Office will appoint independent tax conciliators while taxpayers face a 10pc penalty for late evidence under the Federal Tax Administration Amendment ratified by Parliament last week.

By shifting the selection of “conciliators” from the tax authority to the PMO, authorities aim to establish a neutral dispute-resolution system to speed up out-of-court settlements. Experts describe the move as a high-stakes reform with notable institutional risks.

The legislation, passed unanimously following a report from the Plan, Budget and Finance Affairs Standing Committee, introduces a 10pc penalty on additional tax liabilities when taxpayers submit new evidence after assessment that significantly alters liability. The measure targets delays linked to withheld information during initial audits.

It also strengthens accountability by holding company managers and finance heads personally liable for tax crimes committed by their organisations unless they prove due diligence and non-involvement.

A transitional clause ensures that cases filed before ratification proceed under the previous legal framework.

Authorities say the amendment is intended to strengthen tax administration, support electronic systems, improve dispute resolution efficiency, and align governance with international standards.

ZamZam Bank Registers Shares, Eyes Capital Market Debut

Posted on July 5, 2026July 6, 2026 by Digital Editor

ZamZam Bank has secured approval from the Ethiopian Capital Market Authority (ECMA) to register its shares, becoming the first fully interest-free bank to complete the regulatory process for public trading.

The approval covers five million existing shares worth five billion Br and one million bonus shares valued at one billion Br, paving the way for the Bank’s future participation in Ethiopia’s capital market. ZamZam plans to raise its capital to 15 billion Br and introduce Sharia-compliant investment products, including Sukuk.

For 2025/26, the Bank reported a 35pc rise in net profit to 1.8 billion Br, a 36pc increase in revenue to three billion Br, and an 81pc jump in deposits to 21 billion Br. Paid-up capital climbed 123pc to 5.64 billion Br, while total assets reached 29.1 billion Br. ZamZam now operates 130 branches and serves more than 973,000 customers.

Right Way to Tackle Developing Countries Cancer Crisis

Posted on July 5, 2026July 4, 2026 by Digital Editor

In Nigeria, a cancer diagnosis is often a death sentence. Nearly 130,000 Nigerians receive one each year, and nearly 80,000 die of the disease. An average of 33 women a day in Nigeria are infected with cervical cancer, and 22 women a day die from it.

The problem is not that interventions do not exist, but that Nigerians, and developing-economy patients more broadly, lack access to them.

Breakthroughs in cancer treatment, especially immunotherapy, have drastically reduced the disease’s mortality in recent decades. A mere generation ago, the idea that the immune system could be trained to fight cancer sounded like science fiction. Today, it represents the most promising front in cancer research, with more than 30 immunotherapies treating 25 different forms of cancer now approved by the US Food & Drug Administration (FDA).

The results speak for themselves. Patients with advanced melanoma were once expected to survive a mere 16 weeks. They now have a one-in-three chance of living for a decade or longer. Likewise, for some lung cancer patients, prognoses that were once measured in months are now measured in years.

But Nigerian patients rarely have access to immunotherapies or other innovative treatments. Even at major hospitals in Lagos and Abuja, doctors routinely find themselves unable to prescribe what they know could help their patients. So, while cancer patients in rich countries live longer than ever, Nigerians, like patients in many developing countries, continue to die.

Some believe that the best way to close this gap is to weaken intellectual-property protections for medical innovations and force drugmakers to give away their treatments at little or no cost. They argue that patent rules and high prices create unfair barriers to healthcare. But this well-intentioned argument overlooks an inescapable reality. Without strong incentives for innovation, advanced treatments like immunotherapy would not exist at all.

The development of new cancer therapies requires immense investment and carries staggering risk. Since most new prospective drugs never succeed, the few that do should make up for the costs of the failures. Nigeria, like many developing countries, does not yet have the economic or scientific infrastructure required to develop its own cancer breakthroughs at scale. It remains dependent on discoveries made in countries like the United States.

If we dismantle the system that rewards their innovative activities in the name of faster access, progress will slow, and future patients in rich and poor countries alike will suffer as a result.

Patents expire, and when they do, low-cost generic versions emerge. In the meantime, several pharmaceutical companies and NGOs have launched initiatives designed to expand access to medicines in developing countries. The system might not be perfect, but at least it allows the breakthroughs to keep coming.

The biggest barriers to access to accurate cancer diagnosis and effective treatment in developing countries are not patents at all, but regulatory delays, weak healthcare infrastructure, and poverty. Instead of attempting to dismantle incentives for innovation, governments should work on reducing bureaucratic red tape, speeding up approvals for imported medicines, and expanding healthcare infrastructure and capacity, which is particularly in short supply in rural areas.

Policymakers should also take action to improve overall living standards. Expanding trade and liberalising markets are among the most effective ways for developing countries to boost economic growth and dynamism. Faster growth, in turn, would enable higher investment in infrastructure and healthcare, while creating job opportunities that increase household incomes.

When lifesaving medicines are out of reach, calls for quick solutions are understandable. But a short-sighted approach risks turning today’s tragedy into tomorrow’s catastrophe. Weakening the incentives that underpin medical innovation will slow the pace of progress. And it is progress that is essential to prevent a cancer diagnosis from becoming a death sentence.

ONE TRAFFIC LIGHT, TWO ADDIS ABEBAS

Posted on July 5, 2026July 9, 2026 by Digital Editor

There is a street in Addis Abeba where two worlds meet for the length of a red light.

A mother stood at the edge of the road, one child strapped to her back, another gripping the hem of her skirt. As the cars stopped, she moved from window to window, holding out her hand.

Among the waiting vehicles lined a new Tesla, its finish mirroring the apartment towers, the upscale butcher shops with their carefully arranged display windows, and the malls still gleaming from recent construction. When the light turned green, the cars pulled away, the Tesla among them, and the mother was left where she began.

She watched the traffic vanish, then turned to face the next red light.

This was not a metaphor or a staged contrast. It is the ordinary reality of one street in one city, where great wealth and deep poverty touch for a moment before moving off in opposite directions.

Addis Abeba is changing, and the change is visible to anyone walking through its expanding neighbourhoods. New developments announce themselves on every block.

Luxury apartments rise behind construction fences. Restaurants post menus priced in thousands of Birr. Glass-faced commercial buildings mirror the sky. On the surface, it looks like progress, a city on the way up. Beneath the dust and the towers, though, a different story is unfolding, one the skyline does not tell.

The city is splitting, but not physically, and not along a single border. Increasingly, it is divided socially and economically in ways that feel permanent.

The upper class is building upward. The lower class is pushed further from the resources it depends on, from healthcare, schools, and the neighbourhoods it once called home. And the middle, the working Ethiopians who held the space between, are dissolving into an inflation they cannot outrun.

It was not always this way. Addis Abeba once had what most functioning cities depend on, a middle. A working class that earned enough to rent a decent room, feed a family, pay school fees, and put a little aside.

Ironically, this class has not vanished overnight. It has been worn down steadily by pressures that have made ordinary life feel out of reach. Rising rents have pushed families out of central neighbourhoods and into informal settlements at the city’s edges.

Food prices have climbed faster than wages, while transport costs eat into whatever is left. And all the while, the city has been rebuilt not for these families but around them, and at times over the very places they used to live.

These are pressures that cannot be ignored much longer. Higher inflation, layered on top of one shock after another, means more families are struggling to cover basic needs. What was once an ordinary cost has become a daily threat.

This is not only an economic fact but an experience on the ground, lived by families who do not eat enough, by parents who choose rent over school fees, and by sick people who go without treatment because care is no longer within reach.

For many, life is less about gaining more and more about not losing more.

About 70-80pc of the city’s population lives in informal settlements, areas with scarce infrastructure, unreliable water, and insecure tenure. These settlements take up nearly 50pc of the city’s built-up area, largely without the services and protections that formal housing provides.

The wealthy districts, such as Bole, with its cafes, tar roads, and apartment blocks, read like another city altogether. The contrast is built into the ground, coded into the wiring and lighting of buildings and streets.

Researchers tie these differences to the pace of urbanisation, housing shortages, and unequal access to opportunity, noting that development has too often proceeded without factoring in the people already living on the land. The gap is at its sharpest when neighbouring parts of the city are set side by side.

According to a study by Addis Abeba University, Qirqos District is twice as poor as Bole District on the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), a measure that captures deprivation across health, education, and living standards rather than income alone. Qirqos, with an MPI of 0.39, counted 66.5pc of its people as poor, against 32.8pc in Bole, whose index stood at 0.15.

Two districts in the same city, with two very different lives.

The gap is not necessarily one that market forces created, and not one that market forces will close. Nowhere is inequality more brutal than in healthcare, where the gap decides not convenience but whether a person lives or dies.

A pregnant woman in a wealthier part of Addis Abeba has more than a 90pc chance of receiving the minimum antenatal care visits, the routine check-ups recommended during pregnancy to catch trouble before birth.

In the poorer parts of the same city, that figure falls to between 54pc and 67pc. The consequences are not theoretical.

Children born into the poorest households face nearly twice the risk of dying in their first month as children born into wealthy ones. By the age of five, that gap widens to three times. In a city where private hospitals advertise European-standard care, children die of preventable causes because their families cannot buy the right treatment at the right moment.

This is what inequality actually looks like. It is not about the car a family drives. It is about what is likely to kill them. In Addis Abeba, wealth shapes beyond housing and diet, deciding whether a child survives its first week of life.

There is something disorienting about Addis Abeba’s present moment.

The glamour and the new developments are real. So are the restaurants, the malls, and the busy butcher shops. And the grief is just as real, with the mother on the pavement reminding those in posh vehicles of families displaced with nowhere to go, the settlement two kilometres from a glittering tower.

The city is not divided because development is missing. It is divided because that development is not reaching most people. Growth without distribution is pressure. And Addis Abeba is storing it up quietly, beneath the noise of construction.

Whether the city is growing is not in question. It plainly is. The question is for whom it grows, and for whom it stays a pavement to sit on and watch.

A city that houses two extremes while slowly dissolving the buffer between them is heading toward a fragility no tower can fix. The middle class is not only an economic category. The teachers and nurses, the small business owners and civil servants were meant to be the social tissue that holds urban life together.

When they can no longer afford to live in the city they serve, and staff its schools, clinics, offices and shops, something is lost that money cannot replace.

Addis Abeba is becoming two spaces that share a name, a geography, and the same morning traffic. They do not yet share the same future.

Whether they ever do will depend on choices made not by the market but by the people and institutions with the power to build a city that works for more than a narrow few.

Author: Digital Editor