A well-worn adage says, “Budget is not destiny, but it is direction.” Examining the budget bill for 2025/26 now before Parliament, the federal government’s compass appears to be drifting.
The budget bill reads more like a political document than an account book. It sets spending at 1.93 trillion Br, more than triple the 561.7 billion splashed out in 2022/23.
At face value, the figures may inspire awe. However, without matching gains in revenue, productivity, or administrative capacity, they could risk turning from promise into burden. The burden may prove heavy indeed.
The spectacular rise is matched by an awkward reshuffle. Recurrent spending, the cash that keeps the civil service paid and lights on, has been set at 1.18 trillion Br, pushing its share of the budget from 28.9pc five years ago to 61.4pc now. The share of capital outlays, which was once 32.7pc, slid to 21.5pc.
A country with successive governments famous for roads and dams now mostly settles wages and consumption. It could be seen as a swing, as eating tomorrow’s seed corn to feed today’s hunger.
Regional governments feel the squeeze most keenly. Federal transfers, representing 36.3pc of the budget five years ago, slide to 16.3pc in the budget bill. On paper, this might signal new faith in local tax collection. More likely, it mirrors a drift towards centralisation and a widening vertical fiscal gap.
The Constitution promises fiscal federalism; its ledgers now whisper something different. Under-funded, regional states would be compelled to cut corners on schools, clinics, and roads, stoking disparities that may risk national cohesion.
Commitment to the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has also stalled. Allocations aimed at achieving SDG targets have been stuck at 14 billion Br for five consecutive years. Back in 2022/23, it was 2.14pc of the budget; it is now a meagre 0.73pc.
Economists class such spending as a positive externality. Money that nudges the economy’s productive frontier outwards through healthier, better-educated citizens. Finance Minister Ahmed Shidie’s decision to freeze it chills more than the development lobby.
Nonetheless, execution, not allocation, could tell the grimmer tale of the budget before the legislative house. In the outgoing fiscal year, federal executive agencies have shown dismal implementation rates. For instance, the Ministry of Finance, the author of the budget bills, executed only 55.7pc of a budget that was 87.6pc capital heavy.
The pattern shows clogged procurement pipelines and frail project management. The timing of the fiscal impulse is misaligned, dulling its macroeconomic punch.
Regulators make better use of pennies than ministries do of the budget. The Federal Auditor-General and the Ethiopian Capital Market Authority spent 77.6pc of their allocations. Defence gulped 91.5pc of its 88.5 billion Br budget. Economic affairs officials received 24.2 billion Birr, mostly for capital expenditure, yet executed only 57.9pc. Justice agencies hit 66.4pc, police and prisons 87.3pc, proving that efficiency is fickle.
Behind every line item ticks a debt clock. If expenditure grows by nine percent a year and revenues do not, the debt-to-GDP ratio will breach 60pc by 2035, above the 55pc limit the IMF and World Bank deem sustainable for low-income countries.
Even a rosier scenario where the GDP grows by eight percent with flat revenues, merely stabilises the ratio near 35pc, too high for comfort. Faster growth on its own will not rescue the fiscal situation; only a surge in tax and non-tax revenue can. It seems that federal authorities have taken note of this, judging by their relentless pursuit to boost domestic revenues, with the tax-to-GDP ratio planned to reach double digits in a few years.
The foreign exchange realities may add another wrinkle. In dollars, the budget bill is worth about 14.3 billion, below the 16.8 billion dollars figure a year earlier and even the 14.5 billion dollars of 2023/24. Depreciation and inflation erode the government’s ability to import fuel, fertilisers, medicines, and machinery. Although the budget swells in Birr; the dollar value shrinks.
Taken together, the trends make for uncomfortable reading. The state spends more, invests less, recentralises funds, under-shoots the SDGs and underspends even the money it allocates. Inflation sits high, reserves sit low, and politics remains fraught. The risk may not be an immediate default, but it could spiral into a slow-burn stagnation that wastes the country’s youthful demographics.
However, budget planners cannot be left without options.
Expenditure should be yoked to productivity again, channelling more cash into public infrastructure that can generate business and employment, and social services in education and health. The tax net needs widening, VAT compliance needs to be tightened, and state-owned firms should be pressed to pay dividends that forecasts blithely assume will materialise.
The budget bill is expansionary yet under-executed, centralising yet federal in spirit, developmental in rhetoric but consumption-heavy in fact.
Persistent inflation, a liquidity crunch on the domestic front, and foreign exchange limitations, albeit improved marginally in recent months, compound the dangers. Paying salaries may soothe short-term unrest, but starving capital projects of funds chips away at future earnings. The dams, railways, and industrial parks that once dazzled the public are being eclipsed by payrolls and per diems. Capital expenditure share of the budget has slipped from nearly a third to barely a fifth, when compound growth from earlier years should be reinforced, not relaxed.
None of this should warrant panic, but it does demand a serious response. Federal lawmakers can establish a medium-term fiscal framework and advocate for codified rules, such as limits on recurring spending and debt ratios, to restore a measure of credibility. They could accelerate stalled tax administration reforms that promise quicker wins than broad new levies. They might also rekindle public confidence by devoting clearer shares of the budget to health, education, and infrastructure, areas that unlock concessional finance.
They can also press for transfers to regional states to be stabilised if federalism is to have any chance of functioning. No less important is that the SDG budgets need to grow if the development narrative is to hold water.
International partners continue to view Ethiopia as vital to the stability of the Horn of Africa. They can sweeten the adjustment with technical help and cheap loans, but only if Addis Abeba shows a credible plan for solvency. High inflation, rapid currency depreciation, and rising default premia already hint at tightening external financing conditions.
Ultimately, the gamble at the heart of the 2025/26 budget is clear. Spending big on recurrent items will buy social calm long enough for growth to return and debts to diminish in relative terms. It may. But if growth falters or the taxman comes up short, today’s calm will prove dear. The budget authors would then face harsh choices: slash spending, raise taxes, or plead anew with creditors.
The country has a young population, its infrastructure base, though fraying, is broader than a decade ago, and its geography offers trade corridors waiting to be developed. Fiscal overreach need not become fiscal collapse. But recovery starts with numbers, not aspirations.
Until the ledger balances growth against affordability, the nearly two-trillion-Birr budget will read less like a manifesto of renewal and more like a warning label.