FUEL-FREE TAXI

Around CMC, two men haul heavy sacks atop their heads and shoulders, choosing the grueling burden over costly transport fares. The spike in fuel prices has pushed vehicle costs beyond reach, turning a simple journey into a heavy load carried step by step. Their weary figures tell a story of stubborn resilience, bearing weight not just in sacks but in the relentless climb of daily expenses, proving how far people will go to keep moving forward, no matter the cost.

 

BUS BLUES

As the daily grind winds down, a tide of workers and street hustlers floods toward Legehar transport terminal, each hoping to beat the odds and make it home in time for dinner, small talk, and a few hours of rest before the cycle restarts. But dreams of a smooth ride stall fast. With bus shortages and terminal reforms jamming the system, mothers, fathers, and young adults are left stranded on the curb, staring down the asphalt like it owes them an explanation. The wait drags on, turning the end of the day into yet another battle of patience and worn-out soles.

 

Harvesting Finance

From left: Agriculture Minister Girma Amente (PhD), Finance Minister Ahmed Shide, and National Bank Governor Mamo Mihretu during the second Ethiopia Finance Forum on July 22, 2025, at Commercial Bank of Ethiopia’s HQ located around Ras Abebe Aregay St. Officials unpacked the National Agri-Finance Implementation Roadmap (NAFIR), a push to widen credit access for inputs like irrigation, livestock, and mechanisation. Despite making up 32pc of GDP and 64pc of employment, agriculture secured just 8pc of total bank loans in 2023/24, falling well short by 2pc of demand.

Hijra Bank Backs Young Innovators with Awards, Loans

Hijra Bank has awarded five young Ethiopian innovators in the final round of its “Sirara” Creative Spark Awards, selected from over 27,000 applicants. The programme targets practical innovations in agriculture, sustainability, and appropriate technology.

Top winner Milkias Ahmed (PhD) received a 300,000 Br prize and a 3 million Br interest-free loan for developing an organic soil conditioner from animal bones. Second and third prizes went to Yusuf Ali and Muhammad Juhar for a crop-harvesting machine and a low-power egg separator, earning them 200,000 Br and 100,000 Br, along with loans of 1 million Br and 500,000 Br, respectively.

Acting CEO Dawit Keno said the Bank will support youth innovations beyond the awards. Board Chairman Abduselam Kemal announced a Halal finance literacy programme with universities.

With youth unemployment high, the Bank sees its Sharia-compliant Kerdel Hassen financing as a tool for inclusive entrepreneurship.

Bruh Vision Centre Rolls Out First Refractive Eye Surgery Service

Bruh Vision specialized Eye Care Center, based in the Birra Building near Wollo Sefer, has become the first facility in Ethiopia to offer refractive  surgery. The service was made possible through support from the London Vision Clinic, which provided specialised equipment and professional training.

The quick procedure, completed in under 10 minutes, treats common vision impairments such as nearsightedness and farsightedness. Previously unavailable in the country, access to this type of treatment often meant travelling abroad.

With few institutions providing advanced ophthalmological care, the new centre is expected to close a long-standing gap in the health sector and offer a clearer path for patients seeking timely eye treatment.

Fertiliser Shipments Gain Momentum Ahead of Planting Season

Over 15.2 million quintals of fertiliser have entered Ethiopia through the Djibouti corridor as of July 20, 2025, according to the Ethiopian Maritime Authority(EMA). The shipments form part of the 24 million quintals earmarked for the 2025/26 production year.

Of the total delivered, 12.8 million quintals arrived by dry freight trucks crossing land borders, while 2.4 million quintals were transported via the Ethio-Djibouti Railway. Another 50,777tn of soil fertiliser remains stationed at port. Authorities are seeking to avoid the delays and shortages seen last year, which disrupted planting schedules in major farming areas.

Revenues Ministry Welcomes New E-Data Stream State Minister

Dawit Wubishet has been officially welcomed as the new E-Data Stream State Minister at the Ministry of Revenues. Appointed by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD), his entry was marked by a handover ceremony attended by Minister of Revenue Aynalem Nigussie.

Dawit brings a track record of leadership experience and is expected to advance the ministry’s digital data systems. Minister Aynalem underscored the growing importance of data-driven governance, expressing confidence in Dawit’s ability to support the government’s broader digital transformation agenda.

She encouraged him to make full use of his background to deliver on institutional mandates, particularly in strengthening e-data performance across the ministry. She also wished him a productive tenure as he takes the helm  of the ministry’s digital overhaul.

 

ZamZam Bank Blazes Past 1B Br Profit, Sets Sights on Africa Lead

ZamZam Bank wrapped up its 2024/25 performance review with a headline-grabbing 764pc leap in pre-tax profits, reaching 1.3 billion Br. Total revenues topped 2.2 billion Br, while earnings per share climbed by 43pc. Assets grew to 16.6 billion Br, backed by a deposit base that hit 12 billion Br.

The fully Sharia-compliant bank is also making strides internationally, securing 64.4 million dollars in foreign currency and pushing its branch count past 100. Its digital microfinance arm, Ansar Digital Financing, channelled over 115 million Br to women-led MSMEs.

Board Chairperson Nasir Dino (PhD) reiterated ZamZam’s long-game target, becoming Africa’s top Sharia-compliant bank by 2030. High-performing staff, districts, and branches walked away with awards and bonuses, in a show of appreciation that

Authorities Implement Measures Against 309 Institutions for Violations

The Addis Abeba Food & Drug Authority (AAFDA) has announced that it has taken administrative actions against 309 health and medicine-distributing institutions following inspection findings in the concluded fiscal year. Out of 3,499 facilities inspected, comprising private and public health centers, drug vendors, and traditional treatment institutions, 227 were issued written warnings, while 76 were subject to temporary closures. Six institutions operating without their approved and issued operating licenses had their certificates revoked. Expired or substandard medicines worth nearly 75 million Br were removed from circulation. Over 17,000 health professionals were also subject to evaluation. The authority’s actions aim to uphold public health and safety standards by ensuring the quality and legality of services and products.

New Homes Bring Promises as Uprooted Lives Struggle to Rebuild

On the south-eastern edge of Addis Abeba, Gelan Gura woke up slowly last week. The dawn silence lingers, broken only by children scuffing gravel, a clang from a workshop, and the hush of voices seeping out of windowless rooms.

Low warehouses and factory fences sprawl across the plain, interrupted by neat lines of prefabricated apartment blocks, concrete slabs four storeys high, their grey faces already streaked and tired.

These flats, built by Ovid Construction Plc, a 15 minutes walk from the Industrial Parks Development Corporation (IPDC) zone, are the fresh start promised to thousands of families uprooted from inner-city neighbourhoods such as Casanchis.

Eyuel Dias, 60, leaned on crutches at the doorway of one block, watching children chase pebbles. He shares a 36Sqm flat with his wife and four children and pays 70 Br a month, which city officials call a subsidised rent.

The city administration set that figure in June after discovering most new tenants could not meet the earlier list. It was 70 Br for a one-bedroom, 100 for two, and 130 for three. When the first residents arrived last October, they were told to settle six months of back rent.

Residents found the new rental fees, which city officials had thought affordable, to be beyond their means. A town hall meeting they had recently turned out to be an emotional rollercoaster for both the residents and the officials attending the meeting. The arrears were later waived, the monthly fee was reduced, and in some cases, residents who could prove they had no regular income were exempt from rent.

But in practice, some households still hand over as much as 1,000 Br, their rate decided by emplyment status determined by an opaque residents’ committee.

Though the condo is damp and the windows leak during rainy months, Eyuel is still grateful for the improved housing he was given. He survives on a civil-service pension of 4,600 Br. More than half disappears into utility bills; water was meant to be subsidized, yet two invoices – 1,500 Br one month, 1,000 the next – have already arrived. Both sit unpaid.

“There is no contract,” he shrugged. “We still pay the full amount out of fear.”

Whatever is left buys food, though often not enough. Friends or relatives top him up with small transfers that vanish within days.

“If I were in a better place, I would be off these crutches by now,” he said.

A stroke and diabetes slowed him years ago. In Casanchis, he lived a street away from a diabetes clinic; now, the nearest hospital trip is a costly luxury. Public buses pass rarely, the dependable one crawls through the condos sporadically. Miss it, and he is stranded. The church he once visited daily also feels out of reach.

“I don’t know what we’ve lost,” he told Fortune from his new settlement, which he is struggling to get used to. “But, it was something important.”

Every morning, he steels himself for the day’s primary task of reaching the Tesfa Berhan feeding centre before it closes. The scent of injera wafts over the compound. The Centre, providing daily free lunch for the elderly and the destitute, opens at noon and shuts at 1:00pm; the queue of elderly residents gathers long before.

Mothers arrive clutching bright plastic pots – red, yellow, blue – hoping for a single injera folded inside. Some leave satisfied; others wait, eyes fixed on the doorway for their turn.

Eyuel often stands beside Kinfe Nida, 69, another former resident of Casanchis. Kinfe once ran a restaurant; now he squeezes 9 relatives into a two-room flat.

“We get one meal a day, but I want to work,” he muttered.

He asked officials for a roadside container to sell tea and bread. He was candid about his exhaustion from walking around saying, “give me a place” to work from.

Not even the feeding centre feels secure. Shortly before Mayor Adanech Abebe visited, workers erected a smart fence overnight. On the day itself, tables were laden with “Kitfo” and side dishes.

“That was not how it was the next day,” Kinfe recalled, laughing hollowly.

Nine months on, the pair count at least 15 neighbours who have died due to stress-related illnesses, untreated conditions, and in some cases, suicide. A ninth-grade girl leapt from a window.

“They overthink here,” Kinfe said.

A canvas tent beside their block now serves as a mourning space.

“Sadness lives with us,” added a neighbour.

A drizzle starts as Rashad Kumsa hurried across the courtyard, a single injera wrapped in plastic for his mother, who cannot climb stairs. Rashad is jobless. At a meeting last month, officials promised rent would stay at 70 Br, yet when he went to the District office to pay, the figure had jumped back to 700 Br.

“My relatives paid for two months,” he sighed.

During his years in Casanchis, he loaded trucks and worked as a porter, earning up to 800 Br a day. Here, there is no such work, and, without a kebele identity card, he cannot even apply.

“They ask for kebele ID when we ask for work,” he told Fortune. “But, we only have national IDs. I’m desperate and trying not to make my mother sick.”

On brighter afternoons, residents perch on stoops, swapping gossip beneath half-painted walls. A few young men smoke cigarettes while vegetable stalls flicker to life beneath rusted tin roofs. At a glance, the compound appeared orderly, with rows of four-storey flats that had piped sewage and groundwater access.

Step closer and the veneer fades. Drains overflow, sewage pools in courtyards, and behind the main blocks, vast sheds, corrugated iron subdivided by gypsum panels, house families who once lived unofficially with relatives.

One such shed is home to Betelhem Solomon. A nurse and mother of two grew up in Gibi Gabriel near Unity Park. Now she shares a sheet-metal space with her husband and two of her kids. Her husband earns about 8,000 Br a month at a factory, barely enough.

“I stopped working to raise my children,” she said. “But now, because we are far from the city, it’s not possible to find work, only to look for it.”

A minibus journey that costs 20 Br now costs 130 for a round trip to Megenagna. She missed the crowded alleys and leaking pipes of her old quarter.

The roots of the upheaval stretch back to February last year, when the city launched the 33 billion Br Corridor Development Project, vowing to replace crumbling kebele rentals with modern flats and carve new roads through the old quarters. The first phase completely demolished four kebeles and partially cleaned one, relocated 11,000 people.

“People deserve clean homes,” Mayor Adanech told councillors.

Officials insist they have tried to soften the blow. Close to 12 billion Br paid in compensation; 8,000 homes built on 10hct at Gelan Gura for 10 billion; and rents fixed well below market rates. Gelan Gura is not the only site where city officials relocated residents; others include newly built condos past the Ayat residential area and Bole Arabssa.

According to Kidist WeldeGabriel, who heads the city’s Housing Administration Bureau, 1,560 homes have gone up in Akaki Qality, using prefabricated panels, enough for more than 1,000 families. She listed lower cost and fast build; residents pointed to the puddles in the yards.

“We’re told the drainage works,” Rashad said, after the rain cut power yet again.

The relocated residents talk about distance to jobs, hospitals, markets, and even the smell of coffee from an old neighbour’s stove.

Sintayehu Yihune, a sociologist teaching at Dilla University, calls this “social drift”. It pulls hardest on grandmothers who cannot climb stairs, pensioners who know no one on the new streets, and children whose attendance drops when fares rise.

“We only see those who leave their physical location, not their continuity,” he told Fortune. “They’re not only losing money or business. They are losing the livelihood they have built over a long period.”

Officials stress that rents and water bills are waived “for the time being”, a gesture residents accept with quiet gratitude. But that gap between good intentions and daily needs is wide.

Eyuel still counted every Birr, Kinfe dreamt of selling tea, Rashad searched for work, and Betelhem weighed bus fares against meals.

“It’s far and far away,” said Hiyar Tenkir, father of four and former shoeshiner in Casanchis, echoing a phrase heard in every corridor of Gelan Gura, far not only in kilometres but in access, livelihood, and community.

Hiyar cradled one child while two others chased puddles. The eldest has gone to buy bread. He praised the flat’s solid walls and the nearby school, yet survival is a day-to-day puzzle. He once earned more than 800 Br on a good day; now he stays home while his wife sells coffee to scrape together food.

“I’ve tried everything to find work,” he told Fortune.

Night dropped early on the plain. The single reliable bus wheezed past, windows fogged, seats already crammed. Those who missed it retreated behind damp curtains.

Eyuel’s family sleeps under thin blankets; leaks would appear when the rains grow heavier. Still, he repeated how grateful he is that the walls do not wobble and the roof does not sag. In Gelan Gura, gratitude and uncertainty coexist.

The next morning, the routine began again. Crutches, chill, courtyard, children’s laughter, and the slow shuffle towards the feeding centre. Smell rises from the injera ovens; the line forms. Names are called. Some containers were filled, others remained empty. Across the compound, the mourners’ tent flapped in the wind, a reminder of what has already been lost.

No one claimed the old kebele houses were grand. They leaked, cracked, and teemed with rats, but they sat in the middle of everything like clinics, churches, and even gossip.

“We only brought the walls,” Kinfe smiled sadly, “not the life.”

For now, this is the balance the neighbourhood is compelled to learn to live with.

 

Burned by a Backdoor Tax Shock

The haze that lingers over Addis Abeba at dawn did little to hide the worry on AlemDemeke’s face when she left the Ethiopian Electric Utility (EEU) branch in the Haile Garment neighbourhood.

The 45-year-old civil servant held two receipts, each a riddle in itself. One showed she had paid 600 Br to recharge her prepaid electricity card, but received a credit of only 231 Br. A week later, she laid out another 300 Br; only 120 Br appeared on her meter.

“I don’t understand what is going on,” she said outside the office. “They’ll not tell me, either. I just emptied my purse for this payment.”

Alem lives alone in a one-bedroom condominium near Haile Garment, a modest inheritance from her late husband. Her salary at a government bureau is 6,450 Br a month, and even with occasional help from relatives, she says the budget barely stretches.

“Everyone knows it is very hard to live on this amount of money,” she said, pointing to the few appliances in her apartment.

A refrigerator is on the side, not far off from a TV set, a coffee grinder, and a single-burner stove. When staff told her the missing credit was an “unpaid fee,” she sighed.

“They just say it is this way,” she told Fortune. “What is the point of arguing? I’ll just put my head down and leave everything to God.”

Across town, taxi driver Yisehak Fisseha has a similar story to tell. The 29-year-old shares a one-bedroom condo in the Gottera neighbourhood with his fiancée, paying 8,500 Br in rent from the 13,000 Br he earns driving his uncle’s cab and selling goods online.

He feels the couple makes enough to get by. However, the new fees for charging the electric meter feel to him like an extra payment with no explanation.

“That is what makes it hard to accept,” he said. “It’s like I‘m recharging every two or three weeks. I used to do it once a month for the same amount.”

Confrontations with utility clerks left him uneasy.

“They only want your money and tell you to leave,” he told Fortune. “The arrogance makes you want to start a fight.”

Alem and Yisehak are among nearly one million users who buy power in advance, a system that, until last November, spared them a tax already baked into postpaid bills. That changed in December, when the utility company began deducting a value-added tax (VAT) on every prepaid purchase. And, without notice, the company collects three months of unpaid VAT in one swoop this month.

“It’s a one-time payment,” said Esubalew Tenaw, EEU’s chief process and quality management officer. “There is no additional or hidden fee. Customers are simply covering what was supposed to be collected earlier.”

At issue is a directive the Ministry of Finance sent in September last year ordering the utility company to levy a 15pc VAT on all electricity use. Postpaid consumers, about 3.75million of EEU’s 4.6million customers, had been paying the tax for years. But the prepaid metres used by roughly 900,000 homes and small businesses were never reprogrammed, and the months slipped by.

The fix arrived only after the fiscal year closed, and auditors asked why the money was missing. Engineers updated the software; clerks stayed quiet. When prepaid users swiped their cards in July, the system charged the current purchase, adding VAT arrears from September through November 2024.

Receipts ballooned. Besides the power charge, the slips list service fees, VAT on consumption, VAT on the service fee, a 0.5pc regulatory levy collected for the Ethiopian Petroleum & Energy Authority and the mandatory Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation (EBC) levy.

“There is an agreement with every customer allowing EEU to collect outstanding fees,” Esubalew said. “We thought that VAT for three months would not affect our customers much. But in some cases, we’re wrong.”

He concedes that headsup communication could have helped address the misunderstanding better.

“Some complaints have been addressed individually,” Esubalew told Fortune. “But the truth is, we didn’t communicate well enough.”

Even well-to-do households noticed the jolt. In the Bole area, Saron Dereje, 23, has topped up her family’s three-story home twice in two weeks. The house brims with a variety of appliances, including two TV sets, a large oven, a washing machine, and several grinders.

Her father, a restaurateur, and her mother, an accountant, foot the bills.

“I’ve had to top up twice in only two weeks,” Saron, a student, said. “If I had known about all these deductions in advance, I would have brought a larger sum to recharge. They need to improve communication.”

The standard bill is set to climb further. The federal government, after a deal with the IMF for a bailout package, is phasing out electricity subsidies over the next four years.

Financial support from development partners, particularly the World Bank, remains a linchpin of the transformation. The Access to Distributed Electricity & Lighting in Ethiopia (ADELE) program, a 303 million dollars initiative running through 2027, has boosted EEU’s liquidity, with the utility reporting 2.55 billion Br in cash reserves as of 2024.

The reforms are not without risk as tariff hikes triggered public discontent. Federal officials say this is a policy needed to repair an ageing grid battered by inflation and foreign currency shortages. They argue that higher tariffs will improve the utility’s finances, fund upgrades, and extend access to the roughly one-quarter of Ethiopians still without power.

EEU has recorded a striking turnaround last year, marking a 62pc surge in net profit as revenues approached 34 billion Br. Its executives, under Getu Geremew, the CEO, credited sector-wide reforms and aggressive customer expansion strategies for what appears to be a hard-won recovery after years of operational turbulence and fiscal shortfalls. In the first quarter of last year alone, over 90,000 new customers were added, a positive start toward the EEU’s ambitious annual target of 600,000 connections. The expansion drive is part of a larger national agenda to raise electricity access, which still hovers around 54pc, a figure that remains low by sub-Saharan African standards.

Yet, the improved balance sheet belies deeper structural strains. While revenues in 2023/24 nearly matched the previous year’s actual figure of 35.4 billion Br, they fell short of the initial projections set under strenuous conditions. Chronic constraints, most notably, power interruptions and infrastructure theft, persist. The latter alone drained an estimated 64 million Br from the company’s coffers in the past year. Project execution delays continue to undermine service reliability and cast a shadow over efforts to meet the rising demand.

Ongoing infrastructure modernisation, digitalisation of service platforms, and the rollout of reforms were bearing fruit. Customer satisfaction, a long-standing pain point, edged up from 60.3pc in 2022 to 61.8pc in 2023, a modest but symbolic improvement in a sector plagued by public criticism. It is now fuelled by disappointment with unexplained fees.

“One of the major issues comes from the lack of integration between prepaid and postpaid systems,” said Bahiru Oljira, executive director for energy supply and distribution at the EPEA.

Because the two databases do not communicate with each other, the backlog of VAT, service fees, and consumption charges had to be calculated and deducted simultaneously.

“The government still isn’t collecting what it’s owed,” he told Fortune. “For three months, customers were not charged the full amount, and now they are.”

However, Bahiru conceded the lump sum was heavy but disclosed officials’ worry that the staggered rollout would create more confusion.

“The media briefings were withheld to prevent panic,” he said. “It could have been done differently, but we believed it would be easier to handle it this way.”

According to Bahiru, clients who cannot cover the entire debt have a portion of each future payment set aside.

“In such cases, a partial deduction is made, leaving a usable balance,” he said.

The regulator’s slice of every bill is 0.5pc fee; the rest goes to the Finance Ministry, which insists it is merely applying the law. Its officials say, VAT is charged on the value of the electricity and again on the service fee, as it is for other taxable goods.

However, a directive issued last year exempts households that use up to 200kWh of electricity and 15cbm of water a month. Those above the threshold, seen as evidence of power-hungry appliances, receive no break.

Experts, such as Dawit Kejela, a former senior tax auditor now advising private clients, doubt the fairness of this.

“Electricity and water are basic needs,” he said.

Infrastructure should be financed, he acknowledged, but “the burden should be more fairly distributed.” According to Dawit, many receipts showed VAT exceeding the recharge amount, and line items were opaque, leaving clients blindsided.

“These adjustments could have been phased in over months or years,” he told Fortune. “The public should have been given time to prepare.”

Some wonder if they are being taxed twice. But, Dawit believes that is not the case.

“VAT is a single tax applied to the full amount, including service charges.” He told Fortune. “It may appear twice on the receipt, but it remains one lawful tax rather than two separate levies.”

Ethiopia’s power is still among the cheapest in Africa. A study put rates in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Kenya at 17 to 57 Br a kilowatt-hour, compared to the five Birr charge here. The gap is narrowing as subsidies fade. Officials urge the public to save power, advice many view as hollow.

While senior government officials portray the episode as a short-term shock, EEU executives pledge they will post explanations online, train cashiers, and open a hotline before the next billing cycle.

In Greening Addis Abeba, a Legacy Planted, a Market Overlooked

As Addis Abeba ushers in this year’s rainy season, city officials have committed to planting 4.2 million seedlings across the capital, a far cry from last year’s 26 million. Although the scale has narrowed, ambition remains unchanged. In what city officials describe as a bold shift, all seedlings will now be sourced directly from municipal nurseries, cutting out the hundreds of small-scale vendors that have been supplying institutions under the federal Green Legacy Initiative.

This change, mandated by a directive issued by the Addis Abeba finance bureau on June 11, 2025, is more than bureaucratic reshuffling. It marks a shift in how city authorities interpret efficiency, quality, and fiscal responsibility, especially at a time when Addis Abeba, for the first time, is compelled to run its operations without federal subsidies, managing a record 350 billion Br budget solely from internal revenue.

According to Abdulkadir Redwan, head of the Bureau,”Now, all requirements will be fulfilled centrally, making better use of public funds.”

“All seedlings are prepared locally,” he told Fortune. “The seedlings will be distributed based on staff size, five seedlings per employee, with no financial burden to institutions.”

The Addis Abeba Finance Bureau welcomes this centralised approach, having long complained of inefficiencies in previous procurement methods.

“Some institutions paid up to 500 Br a seedling,” said Girma Seifu Head of Urban Beautification and Green Development Bureau.  The city’s 11 nursery stations are fully equipped to supply the required saplings.

Previously, his Bureau spent roughly 120 Br for a seedling, excluding additional costs such as transportation, labour, and site preparation. Officials anticipate substantial savings under the new system.

However, the policy change has created an immediate test for small-scale seedling vendors who heavily depend on sales to government institutions.

Ibrahim Mohammed, a vendor from the Cherkos area, is among those struggling this year. He sold around 200 seedlings last year to branches of the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) at approximately 50 Br each.

“This year, I haven’t sold a single seedling to any government office,” Ibrahim told Fortune. “Transport costs rose to 6,000 Br. Without institutional buyers, recovering our investment will be tough.”

Nearby, another vendor, Abdela Hussen, shared similar concerns. Last year, he supplied the Kirkos District office with 500 seedlings, priced around 100 Br each. Now, with prices up to 150 Br due to rising costs and no government sales, he faces large losses.

“Transport from Debre Zeyit [Bishoftu] alone costs 8,000 Br,” Abdela lamented. “This season has been very challenging.”

Experts recognise the fiscal rationale behind centralised procurement but warn of potential unintended consequences.

Yitebitu Moges (PhD), who coordinates the UNDP’s Reducing Emissions from Deforestation & Forest Degradation (REDD+) program, supports improved oversight but advocates for a hybrid model that incorporates private vendors.

“These vendors are micro-entrepreneurs,” said Yitebitu. “Without their participation, their livelihoods are at risk. Let the Bureau focus on native, strategic seedlings needed for river restoration or erosion control. Let private vendors handle speciality plants.”

He recommends establishing designated markets or extending credit services to support affected vendors.

City authorities are determined to use the planting drive to boost Addis Abeba’s urban forest coverage from the current 22pc to 30pc. The focus this year will be on ecologically sensitive areas, such as riverbanks, with the intention of not only restoring the environment but also reducing flood risks and curbing informal settlements.

“We’re now prioritising quality over quantity,” Girma told Fortune. “This year’s planting target is significantly lower than the 26 million seedlings planted last year due to shrinking open spaces.”

Beyond environmental and financial savings, city officials are beginning to explore the potential of tapping into carbon credit markets.

Semaw Asmare, an environmental consultant and PhD candidate at Addis Abeba University, believes that the city’s greening initiative could form the basis for generating future revenue through carbon credits. One tonne of carbon equals one carbon credit.

“These credits can sell for as little as three dollars each,” said Semaw.

To date, Ethiopia has already issued over 1.6 million carbon credits through existing Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) standards. The amount of carbon captured by trees varies based on species, climate, and geography.

According to Semaw, trees in cooler areas absorb between five and 10Kgs of CO2 annually, while those in hotter regions can capture up to 22Kgs a year. The Ethiopian Agriculture Authority estimates that approximately 80pc to 85pc of planted seedlings typically survive, sequestering carbon for two to three decades.

Semaw believes effective management is key to unlocking long-term environmental and financial gains from carbon markets. However, he cautioned that the voluntary nature of these markets, largely dependent on donor goodwill, currently limits their stability and revenue potential.

This viewpoint confirms the findings from the 2023 Eastern Africa Alliance on Carbon Markets & Climate Finance report. The report revealed that although Ethiopia actively pursues carbon market participation, achieving its broader climate targets will require around 316 billion dollars over the next decade. Approximately 80pc of this funding should come from international support.

A 2025 EY Centre for Climate Policy report predicts considerable growth in voluntary carbon markets, but also states persistent challenges around verifying the authenticity of carbon credits and avoiding “greenwashing.”

Yet, Semaw believes that as carbon markets mature and if robust verification processes are implemented, Ethiopia stands to benefit significantly.

City officials, such as Girma, acknowledge the ongoing challenges, particularly in accurately tracking seedling survival rates. Although approximately 85 million seedlings have already been planted citywide under various programs, monitoring their progress remains difficult. Girma’s Bureau states that it is actively working to improve monitoring systems by deploying internal auditors to closely supervise compliance.

For Abdulkadir, the greening initiative is more than simply planting trees. He views it as part of a broader vision that encompasses smart urban development, reduced vulnerability to climate shocks, improved air quality, and enhanced resilience.

Despite ambitious goals, experts remain cautious. According to Semaw, the true success of Addis Abeba’s initiative will be judged not by the number of seedlings planted but by how many thrive.

“If the trees survive,” he said, “carbon credit markets and ecological benefits could follow. If they die, it will have been just another wasted rainy season.”