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Month: June 2025

Healing Rivers Spurs City to Bend Growth Around Its Restored Spine

Posted on by Web Master

Over the course of several months of regular site visits, I have watched Addis Abeba’s rivers transform from refuse-choked channels to polished corridors of urban life. The transformation, driven by the Addis Abeba River & Riverside Project, is altering the city’s look and its sense of possibility. On walks with visiting dignitaries, I have pointed to new stone paths, young saplings and cleaned waterways. This is how the capital plans to grow: green, inclusive and people-centred.

The scheme, with an unprecedented commitment from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD), steered by Mayor Adanech Abiebie and team, is no ordinary beautification push. It is a wholesale effort at restoration, equity and sustainability that threads through two major rivers and more than 70 smaller streams. Where mud, trash and toxic runoff once pooled, crews now lay tree-lined boulevards, pedestrian and bike lanes, pocket parks and cultural spaces. Each section is meant to function, not merely impress. To connect neighbourhoods, it draws fresh air into crowded quarters and reminds residents that rivers are public, not dumps.

The work, spread across dozens of construction fronts, demands constant coordination among engineers, horticulturists and residents.

Addis Abeba confronts the same compounding pressures that crowd many African capitals  rapid population growth, rising pollution and climate stress  but the riverside project chooses bold action over incremental fixes. In its sweep and speed, it is one of the most visionary initiatives the city has undertaken, reshaping not only concrete and soil but the narrative of what an African metropolis can be.

The change is already visible. Families push strollers across new footbridges. Teenagers idle along the bike paths. Street vendors, once shoved to littered shoulders, trade in tidy stalls that speak of dignity as much as commerce. The smell that once clung to the water, a mix of equal parts sewage and smoke, has thinned. In its place come the scents of fresh soil and newly laid grass. Long-time residents tell me that it is more than development. For them, the project represents dignity, ownership, and pride.

Environmental dividends sit behind the aesthetics. Cleaner rivers mean fewer waterborne illnesses, less flooding in the rainy season and revived urban ecosystems. Reforestation is central. Planners are removing invasive or dying trees and replacing them with resilient indigenous species, targeting to sequester carbon, provide shade for walkways, and expand the country’s Green Legacy program. By swapping brittle exotics for deep-rooted natives, the city seeks an ecological balance that will last long after the ribbon-cutting ceremonies.

The project also draws on Ethiopia’s store of indigenous knowledge. Engineers adapted the Konso people’s centuries-old terracing methods to steady riverbanks and slow erosion. Local communities join the crews, merging traditional practices with modern machinery and lending the effort a stamp of ownership rather than a top-down decree.

Numbers give the push a wider context. According to the United Nations, more than 60pc of Africa’s population will live in cities by 2050. Many of those cities now struggle with the very problems Addis Abeba is trying to overcome: overcrowding, polluted waterways, scarce public space, and rising climate risks. By attacking its rivers first, Addis Abeba offers a template other municipalities can study, a message that rehabilitation can start with the neglected terrain that cuts through a city’s heart.

Each time I guide foreign guests  conference delegates, investors, ambassadors  they notice the difference quickly. Walking the refurbished embankments, they photograph children racing scooters where refuse once drifted and note how the new parks knit together communities previously sliced by murky channels. Several have told me they intend to pitch similar schemes back home, evidence that the project’s influence is already leaping borders.

The road here was hardly smooth. Before the first shovel turned, the banks served as dumps, open toilets and sporadic shelters. Floods carried waste downstream, spreading disease and dampening property values. Sceptics argued that any cleanup would be swallowed by fresh trash inside a year. Instead, steady work crews, strict waste rules and clear political cover have shifted the odds. The riverside today offers a cleaner breeze and a safer footing than many thought possible.

What stands out most is how the effort seamlessly combines civic pride with practical benefits. Addis Abeba is not only constructing promenades; it is testing whether African cities can leap over the mistakes of older metropolises, channelling rivers in concrete, only to return later at a steeper cost to patch the damage. Here, the bet runs the other way. Heal the river first, and the city’s growth will curve around the restored spine.

I hold an unwavering conviction that the project can reshape not only Addis Abeba but urban Africa more broadly. The initiative builds more than infrastructure; it nurtures trust, belonging and a belief that city life can be both modern and natural. It proves that rivers once treated as hazards can become the arteries of civic revival. They can indeed be places where children play, businesses thrive, and ecosystems rebound.

Let Addis Abeba stand as a reminder that Africa’s cities can rise, and rise green, healthy, sustainable and inclusive.

Banks Stand Still While Currency Pressures Do the Running

Posted on by Web Master

The foreign exchange market moved little in the six trading days last week, but the calm surface concealed a handful of ripples. Across the banking industry, the average buying rate for the Dollar settled at 132.91 Br, while the average selling rate edged to 135.52 Br. Most banks stood pat, their quotes barely changing.
Yet, several — some state-backed, others privately run — quietly shifted course, signalling different balance-sheet pressures and policy goals.
The market was divided loosely into two camps.
The first is a cluster of private banks — Awash, Wegagen, Dashen, and Abyssinia — that rarely stray far from the mean. Awash and Wegagen banks held steady for most of the week, then allowed a gentle appreciation after June 26, a routine housekeeping move rather than a directional bet.
Dashen Bank began the week the same way but jolted the pack on Saturday, lifting its buying rate from roughly 131.8746 Br a week before to 133.62 Br, a leap of more than 1.7 Br. The change, the sharpest by any commercial bank, revealed either sudden liquidity needs or an opportunistic play ahead of the National Bank of Ethiopia’s (NBE) next forex auction.
Abyssinia Bank, by contrast, acted like a fixed-income security. Its buying rate held at precisely 132.98 Br all week, the clearest sign that management saw no advantage in tinkering.
The second camp was a mixed bag. The giant state-owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE), the de facto policy-setting central bank, and the ambitious Oromia Bank behaved anything but synchronised. CBE posted the lowest rates on both sides of the market for six straight days. It bought dollars at 131.5 Br and sold at 134.13 Br, refusing to budge even as peers inched higher. The position signals a tacit coordination with regulators intent on damping demand.
Oromia Bank went the other way, dangling the market’s most generous offers in what looked like a bid to lure remittances. By Saturday, its buying rate reached 135.82 Br and its selling rate 138.53 Br, comfortably above the industry averages.
Between those bookends lay the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE), whose movements were modest but meaningful. The Central Bank’s spread was a rare flat “0.00 percent” on June 23 and 24, widened the next day to 0.04pc, and crept to 0.29pc by week’s end. Small as they are, the changes hinted at policy testing, perhaps a trial run before broader regulatory relaxation.
The underlying numbers tell the same story. The NBE’s buying rate rose from 134.96 Br to 135.29 Br, paced enough to stay above the commercial average yet below Oromia Bank’s top-end quotes.
Statistically, the week produced the narrowest band of variation seen this quarter; however, several banks still printed values that were more than two standard deviations from the daily mean. Analysts flagged those prints as signals of either internal liquidity swings or policy-driven tweaks.
The highest buying-rate volatility came from the NBE itself, Bank of Abyssinia, and Dashen Bank, with Oromia and Amhara banks not far behind. CBE, Cooperative Bank of Oromia (Coop Bank), and Siinqee Bank camped at the opposite extreme; their rates were nearly frozen, a stringency that pointed to benchmark-tethered pricing or a shortage of spare dollars.
All banks respected the two-percent cap on spreads, a regulatory guardrail meant to limit speculative quoting. However, within that buffer, the tone differed sharply. Several private banks, but Wegagen, traded below the industry average, revealing that they are courting retail customers while scanning the horizon for incremental gains. Other banks, such as the CBE, mirrored policy priorities.
CBE’s rock-bottom rates displayed a defensive crouch. Oromia Bank’s highest quotes for several weeks now implied a hunt for fresh inflows. The NBE straddled both roles, setting an example while gathering data on how the market absorbs even tiny policy shifts.
By Saturday, the industry average buying rate had nudged higher, shaped mainly by Oromia Bank’s aggressive posturing and the Central Bank’s small upward steps. Yet, the selling average barely moved, a fact that speaks to banks’ reluctance to widen spreads beyond the allowed two percent.
Volatility metrics back up the visual calm. Daily price ranges were the tightest since early April, and cross-bank dispersion remained low, except for the noted outliers. Even Dashen’s late-week jolt added only a fractional bump to the systemwide standard deviation. Still, that single move served as a reminder that balance-sheet pressures can force action at any moment.
Last week’s snapshot tells a tale of caution and calculated deviation. Most banks, especially Awash, Abyssinia, Wegagen, and Nib, chose to watch and wait. A few, such as Oromia Bank, Dashen Bank, and the NBE, tested the boundaries. And one, the CBE, dug in behind rates that sit well below the market.
The currency market remains under strong regulatory guidance, even as the government negotiates reforms with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The current tranquillity could be a coiled spring where, once external aid, debt-relief talks, or broader reforms clear the way, banks that have stayed near static may scramble to reprice.
Until then, the twin pillars of tight dollar supply and regulatory spread ceilings keep competition muted.

The Delicate Art of Natural-Resource Diplomacy

Posted on by Web Master

Resource competition has long underpinned international relations. But it seems to be retaking centre stage, much like the 19th-century Scramble for Africa or Western grabs for Middle Eastern oil in the last century.

As demand rises for the critical minerals that power the industries of the future, many countries are rushing to gain an edge. The United States (US) recently struck a high-profile minerals deal with Ukraine, which, for its part, wants to prevent a further haemorrhaging of US support for its war with Russia. US President Donald Trump has also talked of acquiring Greenland partly because of its potential mineral wealth, while his administration is negotiating deals with other mineral-rich countries, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

Natural resources are increasingly being wielded as a foreign-policy weapon. In 2022, after Europe sanctioned Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin scaled back gas exports to the continent. And in the past few months, China has restricted exports of rare-earth elements as part of its trade war with the US, while India has suspended the Indus Water Treaty, a water-sharing agreement with Pakistan, following an attack on Hindu tourists in Kashmir. And the conflict between Israel and Iran has raised concerns among Israel’s Western allies that Iran could disrupt shipments of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf.

Controls of oil and gas flows have long shaped geopolitics, but critical minerals have lately taken on new importance because escalating geopolitical tensions are accelerating efforts to bolster defence capabilities and shifting the AI race into high gear, all while the global clean-energy transition continues apace. Constructing new missiles, data centres, and electricity grids requires enormous amounts of metals and minerals, such as copper, cobalt, lithium, and nickel. In an increasingly divided world where China dominates the refining and processing of many of these critical minerals, many countries understandably fear losing access to them.

Looking ahead, climate change seems certain to intensify disputes over resources, particularly water and food supplies. For example, if shifting weather patterns further reduce arable land in vulnerable regions, affected countries may act assertively to protect grain-export routes or to maintain access to international riparian systems. But it makes little sense for countries to adopt a muscular, take-no-prisoners approach to resource diplomacy. History has shown that success requires thoughtful, patient, and tempered tactics.

To begin with, resource diplomacy requires careful, long-term planning. China’s critical-mineral domination was not achieved overnight; it is the result of strategic foresight. Decades ago, the Chinese government adopted a forward-looking industrial policy and began investing in mining projects abroad and forging alliances with resource-rich countries. By contrast, many Western governments, having only recently woken up to the dangers of dependency on other countries for critical minerals, have made little headway in securing their own supply chains for these raw materials, despite introducing multiple initiatives to achieve this goal.

European governments were similarly shortsighted when they allowed themselves to become dependent on Russian gas in the years prior to the Ukraine war. As the continent learned in 2022, scrambling to diversify suppliers during or after a crisis can be highly costly and disruptive.

Countries should focus less on concluding impressive-sounding deals, and more on getting the boring details right. Understanding the technical and economic aspects of resource extraction and processing will determine whether these agreements achieve their long-term aims.

For example, mining executives have criticised the US-Ukraine resources deal for exaggerating the value of the country’s critical minerals and the potential for attracting private investment to exploit them. Likewise, US officials may be overestimating the commercial viability of the minerals under Greenland’s ice. In both cases, while Trump’s manoeuvres have certainly garnered attention, they may do little to strengthen US mineral security.

Of course, countries should not exert too much control over others’ resources, at least not without ensuring significant local benefits. Otherwise, they risk generating resentment and fueling a backlash.

In the 1960s and 1970s, Western oil firms were booted out of much of the Middle East because host governments felt they were getting too little in return. Today, Western mining firms are being squeezed in some parts of Africa and Latin America, owing to similar local perceptions. While Chinese mining firms have gained ground in Africa by portraying themselves as more supportive of local development, they, too, are sometimes tarred with the same brush of neo-colonialism. Securing resources without sowing suspicion is easier said than done.

Finally, resource-rich countries should recognise that weaponising their exports may backfire: importers may shift away from the relevant commodity or retaliate in other ways. A striking historical example is the 1973 Arab oil embargo. While this delivered the intended short-term result – inflicting economic pain on Western countries – it also impelled those countries to develop new oil fields outside the Arab world, such as in Alaska and the North Sea.

In the same vein, Russia’s decision to cut gas flows to Europe caused initial pain, but ended up devastating a once-lucrative export market, which has now secured alternative energy supplies. And more countries are at risk of making the same mistake. India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty has raised fears that China, Pakistan’s ally, may weaponise the waterways under its control that flow to India. Likewise, in tightening global exports of its rare earths, China risks accelerating moves to open up rare-earth mining and processing facilities elsewhere in the world.

When it comes to securing access to natural resources or using them as geopolitical tools, headline-grabbing moves rarely produce the desired outcome, especially over the long term. Instead, effective resource diplomacy requires sensitivity, expertise, foresight, and balance – qualities that, unfortunately, are not prevalent among today’s political leaders.

Africa’s Debt Is an Opportunity

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Almost every debate about African public finance centres on “Africa’s debt burden” as its primary topic. The numbers are stark: the median African country now carries debt worth 60pc of GDP, double the ratio of 15 years ago. It devotes twice as much of every tax dollar to interest payments as it did in the early 2010s.

Twenty governments are already in, or on the brink of, debt distress. Ethiopia is one of four countries that have sought to restructure their debt under the G20 Common Framework. Against such a bleak backdrop, it is tempting to conclude that borrowing itself is the problem. That would be a costly mistake.

During my two decades as Ethiopia’s Finance Minister, I learned that debt is neither a panacea nor a curse; it is a lever. Pull it carelessly, and it can trap a country in perpetual repair. Pull it wisely and it raises growth, jobs and future tax revenue. But only if we treat credit as productive capital, protect investment when shocks strike, and mobilise domestic revenue to pay the bill.

Half of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies this year are from Africa. A trend that has held for over a decade, it has been fuelled by investment, much of it private, but enabled by public spending on roads, energy, health and education. None of it would be possible if governments could not borrow. The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) rule of thumb is that every dollar a government spends on capital projects produces roughly twice the long-term economic boost of a dollar spent on day-to-day consumption.

That is why I am more concerned about those who cannot access credit, rather than those who do. This includes entrepreneurs who cannot invest in their businesses, farmers who cannot borrow to invest in their farms, and governments who cannot make the capital investments needed for growth.

The real danger lies at the other extreme of borrowing for the wrong reasons or on the wrong terms.

Africa’s creditor mix has widened far beyond the old Paris Club. Bilateral loans from new governments and private creditors on commercial terms now sit alongside traditional concessional loans. While governments generally welcome this diversity – it lowers dependency on any single lender – it also complicates restructuring when trouble hits, as some governments have lately discovered. The cure is not to shut the credit window; it is to understand risks better and keep the bulk of borrowing pointed at capital investment over consumption.

Even the best investment plans collide with crises. In my tenure, I had to walk this tightrope and cut Ethiopia’s capital investment budget – once after the 2008 global financial crash and again in response to droughts. Across the continent, climate-related disasters now threaten to repeat that pattern. We lose seven billion to 15  billion dollars every year due to climate change. Losses are projected to escalate to 50 billion dollars by 2040.

Relying on ex-post relief – shifting funds from long-term projects after every flood or drought – is the fiscal equivalent of eating seed corn. Yet, less than two percent of international crisis financing is pre-arranged  and government relief is typically no better, mostly mobilised only once a crisis is in full swing. Governments need pre-arranged financing: disaster funds, contingent credit lines from development banks, insurance for public assets and effective social protection systems.

When capital budgets are ring-fenced, the growth engine can continue to operate even while the country focuses on fighting the fire in front of it.

The Ethiopian parliament is currently operationalising a new Disaster Risk Management Financing Strategy. At its core sits a new Disaster Risk Response Fund, which aims to pay for disasters partly through domestic resource mobilisation. Ethiopia’s 10-year developmental plan vows to almost double the tax-to-GDP ratio, from 9.2pc today to 18.2pc by 2030. (The median African government collects 14pc of GDP in tax, seven points below the average in advanced economies and two points below other emerging economies.) Robust tax systems are not merely about money; they anchor accountability and reduce dependence on external creditors.

Too much of a good thing can be a bad thing, and there are risks associated with accumulating too much debt. But we should only borrow to invest in growth, and we should increase resource mobilisation. Credit is how countries – and companies and families – bring future earnings into the present to finance progress.

Africa’s challenge is not to avoid borrowing; it is to borrow for growth, protect that growth from shocks, and pay the bill with a stronger domestic tax effort. The task before policymakers, insurers and investors is to turn today’s debate on debt from a tale of woe into an opportunity.

A “Talking Gorilla” Walks into Mercato

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A couple of evenings ago, TikTok served up a scene that felt equal parts circus and science fiction. An Amharic-speaking Gorilla character strolling through Merkato, waving at fruit vendors, cracking jokes and locking eyes with the camera in a way that seemed unnervingly human. A few swipes later came an “anchorwoman” with immaculate diction, flawless posture and the faintest hint of the uncanny, delivering breaking news from the same open-air market. Neither creature ever existed.

Both videos were churned out by the latest text-to-video engines  Google’s Veo 3 and OpenAI’s Sora  systems able to spin photorealistic images, motion and native-sounding audio from a handful of words. Today, the clips these platforms generate draw laughs; tomorrow, they could fool an electorate.

For generations, video was treated as proof. Deepfakes exploit that reflex. Researchers now say that even tech-savvy viewers struggle to distinguish between real and fake, and the tools are becoming increasingly simpler. What once required a studio now sits in a teenager’s phone. The next question is not whether these systems will be misused, but how much damage they will cause.

Social media already has a well-documented record of amplifying rumours in Ethiopia. Unverified posts on Facebook and Telegram have stoked ethnic tensions and political unrest. A recent Internews survey found more than 80pc of users from Ethiopia rely on such platforms for news. Synthetic clips that are ultrarealistic, quick to share and hard to trace are sliding into that stream. The result is a fracture in basic consensus. When everything looks plausible, nothing feels certain.

Historian Timothy Snyder warns that “when nothing is believable, anything is.” Deepfakes widen that void and hand bad actors a precision tool for chaos. The threat is not confined to politics. One of the ugliest applications of AI video is non-consensual pornography. A wave of fabricated nude images featuring international celebrities has shown how quickly these forgeries spread.

Closer to home, a well-known Ethiopian activist recently found a bogus, explicit video of herself circulating online. The fallout  shame, harassment, reputational damage, and even threats of violence  arrived instantly. Mental health trauma follows such attacks, and recovery is slow. For women in politics, activism, or media, the mere possibility of becoming a target can encourage self-censorship. When visibility turns into vulnerability, democracy itself suffers.

Global watchdogs are sounding the alarm, including the World Economic Forum (WEF), which ranked “AI-generated misinformation and disinformation” the second-most likely global risk. Deepfake clips of candidates have surfaced in campaigns from Taiwan to India. The Munich Security Conference called synthetic media a frictionless path to forgery.

Where the legal code offers only sparse language on digital disinformation, and trust in state institutions is fragile after years of conflict, such as in Ethiopia, they are especially vulnerable. The country’s rapid online expansion compounds the risk. As of 2023, only 17pc of Ethiopians enjoyed regular internet access, yet millions more are coming online each year. Many novices are unfamiliar with privacy settings, data sharing, and verification techniques. The gap between access and understanding is an epistemic minefield.

Unlike digitally mature societies that crawled through the dial-up era, learned to doubt suspicious download links and watched Photoshop hoaxes evolve, Ethiopia is leaping straight into an internet shaped by algorithms and generative AI. New users, parachuted into that virtual world, are prone to accept what they see. This should be more alarming, especially when the message arrives in fluent Amharic, wrapped in familiar gestures and trusted formats.

Cheap processing power means a basic smartphone can now crank out believable fakes in minutes. As hardware barriers fall, the volume of synthetic material will skyrocket. The supply of doubt may not keep pace with demand.

The consequences appear in comment threads. Some viewers questioned the gorilla’s authenticity, while many accepted it outright. Ask anyone teaching an older relative to navigate social media. Confusion and conspiracy theories spread faster than software updates.

Economists and creators often frame the AI debate around jobs. A 2023 global poll found 54.6pc of artists fear that generative tools will cut their income. Such concerns echo earlier panics, such as film versus radio and television versus cinema. Markets adjust. The more profound crisis is epistemic, not economic. Machines are eroding the shared sense of what is true.

The talking gorilla may seem amusing. The AI-generated news anchor may seem like a harmless novelty. But each instance marks a data point in an emerging media ecosystem where truth is no longer discovered, but constructed, and increasingly, constructed by machines.

So far, remedies lag behind the threat. Fact-checking desks struggle to keep up with the volume of new content and the diversity of local dialects. Platform labels  “synthetic or manipulated media”  tend to appear hours after a clip has gone viral. Detection algorithms face an arms race they may never win, as each breakthrough in forgery spawns a counter breakthrough in disguise.

Education could offer a partial shield. Studies show that viewers warned in advance that a video might be fake slow down and doubt what they see. Digital-literacy programs in schools, community centres and even church gatherings could help new users build a healthy scepticism. Local-language guides to privacy, verification, and reverse-image searches would add friction to the forger’s business model.

Soaring Taxes Fail to Plug Holes as Audit Reveals Enduring Waste

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Meseret Damtie, the assertive auditor general, has never been shy about naming names, and with a reputation for her clear voice and sharper pencil. Last week, she published her latest verdict on the federal government’s finances, covering 115 of the 182 institutions, which secured clean audit reports this year, up from 73 in 2014.

However, beneath the tidier surface, Meseret still found grime. A stubborn 85.8pc of the irregularities flagged in earlier audits, worth 17.6 billion Br, remain unresolved. The pile of errors reveals how slowly the machinery of the state addresses its own leaks.

Her team combed through the books of 169 agencies and 51 branch offices while compiling the 2024/25 review of the 1.9 trillion Br budget. Customs duties unpaid to the treasury add up to 2.39 billion Br; income-tax arrears come to another 1.23 billion Br. Money that ought to have built schools and clinics instead gathers dust in private pockets.

The losses expose the federal government’s bigger problem. It tries to fund Scandinavian-sized ambitions with African-style tax collection.

A five-year dataset beginning in 2022 lays bare the mismatch. In 2022/23, the federal government ran a deficit of 219.47 billion Br, equal to 39.1pc of total spending. In the budget bill before Parliament, the hole would widen to 817.19 billion Br, or 42.4pc. In between, shortfalls even topped the halfway mark.

Borrowing has papered over the gap, but such an appetite for debt has proven to be difficult to satisfy. A bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has tightened the pipeline for Ahmed Shedie, minister of Finance, to rely on Mamo Mehiretu, governor of the Central Bank, for domestic borrowing to cover the fiscal deficit.

Under pressure from lenders and the dictates of arithmetic, Ahmed now hopes to cover nearly four-fifths of the budget for the next fiscal year with taxes. The formal sector is expected to pick up the tab. Payroll workers, corporate entities, and consumers already battered by inflation will be burdened with handing over a further 1.5 trillion Br, a record haul, revised upward after collections exceeded forecasts.

They may wonder what they receive in return.

Finance Minister Ahmed and his deputies and budget pundits on King George VI St. argue the shift is worthwhile for it spares the printing presses that Governor Mamo could order, whose past generosity stoked inflation. External lenders, especially the IMF, cheer the new orthodoxy. Less money creation means slower price growth.

However, the cure has downsides. Instead of hidden inflation taxes everyone pays, deductions fall on firms and employees whose wages have not kept pace with living costs.

The mismatch between rising contributions and modest returns feeds public discontent. Sceptics could have a point arguing that while formal businesses and salaried citizens shoulder more of the bill, they do not see comparable gains in public goods or price stability. That disconnect, the Auditor General observes, erodes trust and weakens the economy’s ability to cope with shocks.

Much of the bounty never reaches public services. A supplementary appropriation steered 137 billion Br into debt servicing and 52 billion Br into recurrent costs, such as pay rises for civil servants. Motorists, farmers and low-income families see fewer benefits.

When Brent crude vaulted above 70 dollars a barrel because of Middle Eastern tensions, the government considered scrapping fuel subsidies that cushioned transport and food prices. Fertiliser support, vital to the two-thirds of Ethiopians who farm, also stands in the firing line. Abolishing aid at such a moment could make the already unbearable cost of living even heavier, shrinking purchasing power and shaking the economy.

Critics who dismiss subsidies as waste could have missed the point. Policymakers’ failure lies less in handing out help than in handing it to the wrong people. With better data, digital payments, and clear rules, the state could target support precisely and cheaply. That, Meseret hinted, is what sound auditing should enable.

Policymakers love to cite that Ethiopia has one of Africa’s lowest tax-to-GDP ratios. Formal firms and salary earners are easy prey; subsistence farmers and the sprawling informal economy rarely receive a visit from the collector. State-owned enterprises, which dominate telecoms, power, finance, and logistics, pay meagre dividends while accumulating chunky debts at home and abroad.

Still, the ledgers show what can be done.

Between 2022/23 and 2024/25, income-tax revenue more than tripled, from 95.2 billion to 310.5 billion Birr, while withholding tax quadrupled from 32 billion to 120 billion Br. The value-added tax (VAT) has soared from 85 billion Br to 280 billion Br and is now the largest single source of revenue for the state.

Corporate tax growth lagged, climbing from 55 billion Br to 195 billion Br, perhaps a sign that many companies remain out of business. Non-tax income limped from 45.5 billion Br to 100 billion Br. A murky category labelled “other revenues” jumped from 30 billion Br to 105 billion Br, a rise that alarms the Auditor General as much as it puzzles her.

Such patterns store up trouble. VAT and payroll levies track the economic cycle; in a downturn, they will sag. Weak corporate receipts hinted at an enterprise sector too stunted to share the load. Granted, there could also be widespread evasion. Dependence on loosely defined “other revenues” could hide fresh impropriety.

Recent reallocations have fattened payrolls while starving productive subsidies.

The political economy is delicate. Faced with donor pressure and domestic frustration, ministers attempt to appear prudent by harvesting easy taxes, paying creditors, and increasing bureaucrats’ salaries. But citizens endure the squeeze twice, once in payroll deductions and again at the market stall where prices keep climbing.

Trust erodes when sacrifices buy little relief.

More imaginative fixes can be on the shelf.

Plugging leaks and thrift could yield safer gains than squeezing the already compliant of the waged and the corporate.

Simple efficiency targets could have trimmed 192.77 billion Br from the current budget bills, approximately a quarter of its proposed deficit, without requiring new loans or taxes. Tighter procurement, culling redundant posts, and tracking the cost and progress of capital projects would do the trick.

Property-value levies, environmental charges, and property taxes would broaden the base. Dividends from better-managed SOEs and realistic fees for licences and regulation would supplement them. Digital tax filing could limit both error and bribery. Real-time auditing, using technology that already exists, would detect mischief before it escalates.

Meseret’s audit crusade should be far from over. By documenting in black and white the sums lost, wasted, or still unaccounted for, she exposes the rift between the soaring budget plans and their actual cash realities. Whether officials close that rift, or merely shift the burden again, will, in the long run, measure the value of her courage.

Fulfill Your Dream of Becoming Parents

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Approximately 1 in 6 couples are affected by infertility globally. Fertilization problems can arise from various causes related to men, women, or both partners. Assisted reproductive technologies have been helping couples achieve their dream of parenthood for years.

At Acıbadem IVF Center, we offer individualized treatment approaches, supported by an experienced team and advanced technologies, to help couples fulfill their dream of becoming parents. With approximately 10,000 IVF cycles performed annually, our fertility specialists, who have over 30 years of experience, develop customized treatment plans tailored to each couple’s unique conditions and needs, significantly enhancing the chances of success.

If you’d like to learn more, we encourage you to visit acibademinternational.com and share your condition with us through the contact form. Our expert team will contact you within a few hours.

Innovative Applications Boost IVF Success Rates

Every year, the number of couples seeking IVF treatment increases. Why? Factors like the rising age of marriage and delayed decisions to have children significantly contribute to this trend. Fortunately, advances in assisted reproductive technologies continue to meet couples’ expectations. Pre-implantation genetic testing enables the selection of genetically healthy embryos, while innovative approaches focus on improving the ovarian reserve in women. Additionally, advancements now enhance sperm count, concentration, and motility, offering new hope for male infertility. Today, assisted reproductive technologies are more effective than ever in helping couples achieve their dream of parenthood.

Acıbadem stands as an internationally recognized leader in reproductive medicine and infertility. With over 30 years of experience, we have been providing comprehensive assisted reproductive services to couples facing infertility challenges.

If you’d like to learn more, visit acibademinternational.com and share your condition with us through the contact form. Our expert team will reach out to you within a few hours.

Improving Sperm Count, Concentration, and Motility in Men with Infertility

Azoospermia, a condition characterized by the complete absence of sperm in the ejaculate, is a common cause of male infertility and affects approximately 5%–10% of infertile men. The primary treatment for azoospermia is Micro-TESE, a procedure that retrieves sperm directly from the testis under a microscope. However, some men still don’t yield sperm even after repeated Micro-TESE attempts. In such challenging situations, we offer testicular PRP therapy that might enhance sperm quality and quantity, increasing the likelihood of conceiving.

To investigate the effects of PRP on male infertility caused by azoospermia, published the first academic study in this field, achieving promising outcomes. Testicular PRP therapy was administered to 135 men included in the study, resulting in positive sperm retrieval rates of 27.5% in patients with one prior failed Micro-TESE procedure and 16.4% in those with two or more failed attempts.

This groundbreaking technique offers significant promise for enhancing IVF outcomes and boosting the chances of achieving successful conception.

Promising Results in Enhancing Ovarian Reserve and Egg Quality

A woman’s ovarian reserve and egg quality play a crucial role in achieving successful fertilization, embryo development, and pregnancy. If these parameters are compromised, pregnancy may not be achievable, even through IVF. In such challenging cases, Acıbadem offers innovative solutions to enhance egg quality and quantity, increasing the chances of conception.

PRP is a promising method for enhancing ovarian reserve and egg quality by stimulating the ovaries and potentially increasing the chances of pregnancy. Professor Bülent Tıraş, Head of the Acıbadem Maslak Hospital IVF Clinic, highlights the encouraging results of this procedure. For women who received PRP therapy, when ovarian reserve parameters were analyzed, a statistically significant increase in AFC and AMH, as well as a decrease in serum FSH, were observed, which indicate favorable responses. He states, “We conducted a comprehensive study involving 510 women experiencing poor ovarian response with an average age of 40.3. Following the PRP and IVF procedures, we achieved a 20% pregnancy rate. These findings highlight the potential benefits of PRP in enhancing fertility treatments, especially for women facing specific challenges in conception.”

If you’d like to learn more, visit acibademinternational.com and share your condition with us through the contact form. Our expert team will contact you within a few hours.

The Impact of Experience on IVF Success Rates

The experience of physicians, embryologists, and nurses is one of the most significant factors in achieving higher success rates in IVF treatment. This is why a couple who has experienced failed IVF attempts at one clinic may achieve positive results at another clinic. It is crucial to identify the treatment modality that would be most beneficial for each patient, as the reasons for infertility can vary from case to case. Even when two patients share the same infertility cause, their treatment plans may differ. Individualized approaches are essential for every patient.

At Acıbadem IVF Center, where approximately 10,000 IVF cycles are performed annually, fertility specialists with over 30 years of experience develop customized treatment plans based on each couple’s individual conditions and needs, significantly improving the chances of IVF success.

If you’d like to learn more, we encourage you to visit acibademinternational.com and share your condition with us through the contact form. Our expert team will contact you within a few hours.

Technological Advances Boosting IVF Success Rates

In the field of reproductive medicine and fertility, significant advancements in laboratory techniques, technology, medications, surgical methods, and equipment have greatly improved overall IVF success rates. At Acıbadem, we not only apply these advancements but also work to explore new treatment modalities through scientific research to increase the chances of pregnancy for couples.

Offering a comprehensive range of services for fertility challenges, Acıbadem is home to highly regarded specialists in reproductive medicine. This reputation attracts couples from around the world who seek world-class care and innovative solutions.

If you’d like to learn more, visit acibademinternational.com and share your condition with us through the contact form. Our expert team will contact you within a few hours.

ENAT BANK’S MEASURABLE EQUITY

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In a landmark move to promote gender equity in the banking industry, the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) has released its inaugural Gender Financial Inclusion Index, positioning Enat Bank at the forefront. Among 30 commercial banks evaluated, Enat Bank emerged as the sole financial institution to attain a “transformational” rating, outpacing competitors in a field where most lenders remain at early stages of integration. The five-tier composite index, developed by the Central Bank as a benchmarking tool, rates banks across dimensions such as leadership commitment, product innovation, credit accessibility, data transparency, and organisational policies targeting women’s financial participation. While three other banks received recognition for progress, the industry’s average settled at 2.95, categorising the majority within the “Building Momentum” tier, a midpoint demonstrating nascent but incomplete commitments to inclusive banking practices.

Enat Bank’s performance stood out not only for scoring highest but also for its structural and cultural alignment with gender equity principles. Founded in 2008 with a mission to empower women economically, Enat Bank has since issued over 1.4 billion Br in non-collateral loans to women-led enterprises, contributing to the creation of more than 22,000 jobs. According to reviewers, the Bank’s operational ethos integrates gender inclusion at every level, from its boardroom, where Chairperson Meaza Ashenafi, a former president of the Supreme Court, provides strategic oversight, to front-line services geared toward underserved female entrepreneurs. The symbolic weight of the achievement was observed during a celebration at the Addis Abeba Hilton on June 19, 2025, where former President Sahle-Work Zewde joined Enat Bank President Ermias Andarge and other board members for a toast marking the milestone.

Addis Abeba’s Messy Taxi Overhaul Leaves Riders Waiting, Veterans Sidelined

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Around 5:00pm, a time when most civil servants spill out of office towers and scramble for rides home, Mexico Square was oddly hushed.

On Mozambique Street, in the Genet Hotel area, only a few battered blue-and-white minivans nosed into the curb, leaving long queues of commuters staring at the empty road and the lowering sun. A man in fresh orange-and-blue uniform, a facilitator, and two transport officers, strolled past the waiting crowd, offering little comfort to fraying tempers.

Adnan Arfano, in his early 20s and juggling school with a sales job, stood at the head of the line bound for Mexico Square from the Haile Garment district. He has learned the choreography of the city’s unruly taxi ballet on the Piassa-Megenagna-Ayat corridor, but lately the rhythm is off.

“Sometimes it’s a stampede, people run, elbow their way through,” he said. “And, the new line facilitator stands there, fixated on collecting money from the driver.”

He never saw it this way before. The fix, he argued, was better staffing at busy transfer points and facilitators who do more than guard their commissions.

“The changes are a good idea, but they need teeth,” said Adnan, one of the approximately 1.43 million commuters in the capital who depend on minibus taxis, which cover 80pc of the demand. “When there is no one watching, people cut in line and take others’ seats.”

Commuters who rely on public transport represent 31pc, doubt the size of the city population that uses a personal vehicle. Aside from the city bus services and nearly 400 midibuses, approximately 9,000 minibuses operate in the city, with 3,000 of them being Code-1 coloured in blue and white.

For decades, the capital’s 14-seat mini-buses were marshalled by a loosely governed army of line facilitators, known locally as “Tera Askebari”. The arrangement gave work to thousands but annoyed passengers and officials who complained about chaotic dispatching and persistent side payments.

According to Yabibal Addis, head of the Addis Abeba Transport Bureau, talking to Addis Media Network said the city finally decided to reboot the system. Officials wanted to change the old setup where every place a taxi passed was treated as a terminal, and a facilitator was assigned there.

That practice produced 197 terminals and more than 3,600 facilitators, one for roughly every half-block on some routes. Drivers paid a fee at almost every stop. On a short route, a driver could charge at least 20 Br or 40 Br for a round trip.

“That was a burden,” said Nuredin Ditamo of Nib Taxi Owners’ Share Company.

However, the city officials’ plan to administer could be radical, limiting facilitators to the first and last stop, slashing recognised terminals to 87, thereby trimming the workforce to 996.

Each enterprise received a two-year permit. The Bureau also replaced cash with a digital payment of 10 Br per trip, routed through Siket Bank, a financial institution that morphed from the Addis Abeba Credit & Saving Institute, which was under the city administration.

The cut is pre-programmed: 20pc to city coffers, 30pc to future sector projects, and the rest to facilitators’ wages.

“Facilitators can only remain on this job for two years,” said Yabibal. “They must move on to growth-focused sectors henceforth.”

While the new system promises opportunity, it has displaced many.

Biniam Getu, once a familiar face helping commuters at Mexico Square, now spends his days on a spiritual retreat in a monastery after losing his job to the city’s overhauled transport facilitator system. The former member of the Tigat Facilitators Union still clings to a promised three-month training program that he hopes will teach him skills such as welding or woodworking.

“We submitted our request and are waiting,” he said.

Biniam’s troubles deepened when Girmachew Sileshi, chairman of the Addis Abeba Taxi Facilitators’ Union, left the country. Repeated attempts by the Union to secure a meeting with the Mayor’s office were turned away.

“We’re told our union isn’t recognised and advised to approach our District,” Biniam said.

However, that coordination fell apart in the chairman’s absence. Some displaced workers have drifted back to their former curbs, hoping to scrape together the 200 Br to 300 Br, a fraction of what they once earned daily. Newly hired facilitators toil through entire shifts but are paid only after digital reconciliation, rather than up front, the way veterans were.

Getu complained that the newcomers do not know the streets and show little care for the elderly or pregnant commuters. He also claimed thefts have risen while many former facilitators struggle to feed their families.

City officials counter that the reforms seek to create lasting opportunity.

Feyissa Feleke, communications director at the Addis Abeba Labour & Skills Bureau, outlined a training initiative intended to steer displaced facilitators toward new trades and small business ownership. To qualify, applicants are required to prove their residence with a Kebele ID, register on the Labour Market Information System, and submit their biometric data. Accepted trainees attend courses at institutions such as General Wingate and Entoto Polytechnic Colleges.

“We make sure applicants aren’t those who already built up sufficient capital to start a business on their own,” Feyissa said.

Some participants have already completed their training, and most newcomers choose to pursue trade skills. Current facilitators nearing the end of their two-year contracts will receive a shorter, five- to 15-day course tailored to their next field of work.

“The ultimate aim is not just income generation,” Feyissa noted. “We’re working toward real economic empowerment and long-term employment opportunities.”

Trainees should set aside 30pc of their income in a mandatory deposit and are encouraged to build extra savings as a cushion for future ventures.

The policy has its academic supporters. Berhanu Zeleke (PhD), a lecturer in urban transport at Kotebe Education University, called the overhaul overdue. Replacing the old guard, he argued, makes room for fresh job seekers while contractual terms increase accountability.

“The contract system encourages facilitators to plan for their future,” he said,  acknowledging past misconduct among some facilitators.

On paper, the new system looks clean. On the curb, it is sputtering.

One of these terminals is located around the Stadium, where Abraham Weldesenbet, a slight facilitator in a crisp uniform, paced between vans last week, scribbling plate numbers in a dog-eared notebook. Stars marked those that had paid, but taxis often pulled away before he reached them.

“It’s so frustrating,” he told Fortune, shoulders sagging.

The outfit has 13 members for one of the busiest junctions in the city, a ratio that leaves him alone during rush hour.

By 10am, he had logged about 40 vehicles. Only a handful carried the multiple stars, showing they had settled their fees.

“The system is nonexistent,” he grumbled.

Amelewerk Megeressa, a traffic coordinator in the area, confirmed the shortage.

“There are students and workers in long queues,” she said.

Some drivers, fearing phone theft, refuse to use the mandatory app; others do not own a smartphone.

“There should be someone designated to help facilitate the payments,” she said.

Indeed, the citywide shift to electronic fare collection has opened a digital divide.

Abraham Haika, who shuttles between Stadium and Qality for the Kirkos District Taxi Association, acknowledged that the new facilitators are learning.

“They’re getting used to the job,” he said. “There is no conflict between us. They help manage queues and even direct passengers when needed,” he said.

For him, the hitch is the network. It takes too long, connections are slow, and many drivers lack compatible devices. However, intermediaries sense an opportunity. Since the government mandated digital fuel purchases two years ago, young hustlers have offered to run transactions on old Nokia phones for a fee.

“It’s the same problem all over again,” Nuradin from the taxi association told Fortune. “These middlemen are turning it into a job.”

The price to work with the intermediaries is a five Birr premium over the 10 Br fee the city imposed, which they pocket after making the transfer.

Officials concede the rollout is bumpy. The flat charge could be set to stop facilitators from quietly shifting taxis to longer routes and demanding higher cash tips. But, fixing the bug is underway by software developers.

“These issues are being evaluated daily,” Yabibal confirmed.

Siket Bank’s early versions of its system required drivers to key in a 13-digit account number, an ordeal on analogue handsets. The Bank responded by introducing a four-digit short code system, from 1001 to 1087, each representing a specific terminal enterprise. The Bank works with Ethio telecom’s Telebirr, a platform that drivers already use to pay for fuel, although transfers from 32 banks are also possible.

Messay Woubshet, Ethio telecom’s communications chief, denied any exclusivity.

“Siket’s system is simply integrated into the Telebirr app like the systems of 28 other banks,” he told Fortune. “Drivers use the ‘transfer to bank’ feature within the app to make payments.”

Most glitches, he said, are cleared within a day.

“If a transfer takes time, it is usually resolved within 12 to 24 hours,” said Messay. “In rare cases where it takes longer, we apologise and follow up directly with the affected parties.”

Facilitators on the ground say they improvise. Some drivers with no Telebirr account still pay cash. According to a facilitator who requested anonymity, they accept the fees when drivers return from their trips.

“We only want to help people get where they need to go,” he said while pocketing coins. “But, people criticise every detail.”

He recalled the time a passenger shot video of a cash hand-off, an offence that can bring a fine of 5,000 Br to 10,000 Br for both parties.

Those penalties are spelt out in a sweeping regulation that covers everyone involved, from taxis and terminals to facilitators, the Ministry of Labour & Skills, the Peace & Security Administration Bureau, as well as the drivers’ associations. Enterprises should register, open two bank accounts, and submit quarterly reports to the authorities.

Working without an ID or the required uniform draws a 10,000 Br fine and instant dismissal for repeat offenders. Members who stir up trouble face 5,000 Br on the first strike and 10,000 Br on the second; enterprises employing workers caught drinking, smoking, or using substances such as Khat risk both fines and loss of permits. Drivers involved in disturbances pay 1,000 Br.

City officers can pull plates from individuals who are chronic offenders.

Officials want these changes in public transport management to fit into a bigger corridor project to modernise the capital’s transport arteries with new lanes, electric buses, and bicycle paths.

Dagnachew Shiferaw, deputy head of transport operations, argues that the Addis Abeba City Bus Service Enterprise moves 1.1 million people daily without line facilitators.

“That proves structure and respect can do the job,” he told Fortune. “We don’t need more personnel. What we need is stricter monitoring and consistent penalties.”

A live dashboard tracking the city’s new Velocity electric buses, passenger counts, fare mix, and location is displayed. The city now has 81 terminals and 85 enterprises, with more than 100 staffed locations, although some lack formal structures. Thousands of students and unemployed youth volunteer during rush hour after completing a seven-day course that covers financial literacy, discipline, and public safety.

Back on Mozambique Street, another dusk settles over a line of weary commuters. The sun was gone, the crowd thinned, and Adnan still waited for a taxi. A facilitator waved down an empty van, but the driver rolled past, horn blaring. Change is coming, city officials insist, but for riders like Adnan, the road home feels longer than ever.

Many of the holdups are low-tech. Drivers cling to basic phones because smartphones are more prone to theft. Punching a 13-digit account number on a tiny keypad is slow; one mistake means starting over from scratch. Siket Bank’s engineers promise a more straightforward menu and a QR code option, but that will require sturdier handsets than most drivers trust themselves to keep.

Road tweaks are coming, too. The corridor project bundles taxi reform with resurfaced asphalt, wider sidewalks, bicycle lanes, marked crosswalks, pocket parks, and designated parking bays. Officials pitch it as a package: digital payments to clean up the money, and physical investments to clean up the streets.

Even supporters concede the early days feel messy.

“The benefits are ultimately for the drivers themselves,” said Berhanu, teh lecturer, urging patience. “Transport is the lifeblood of a city; change never arrives as fast as the traffic light turns.”

Though he believes those who showed dedication deserved better recognition, he sees the broader changes. New transit hubs and digital payments are steps worth the temporary inconvenience.

Real Estate Faces Sweeping Regulatory Overhaul

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Officials of the Ministry of Urban & Infrastructure have tabled a draft regulation they believe will restore public trust and tighten fiscal discipline.

Unveiled at the “2025 Ethio Real Estate Summit” on June 14, 2025, at the Sheraton Addis, the draft comes amid a storm of pent-up demand, rising costs, and widespread financing dysfunction. It coincides with the launch of the Ethiopian Real Estate Developers Association (EREDA), now positioning itself as both a stakeholder and a pressure group in the evolving regulatory landscape.

The regulation, if approved, will be a sweeping move to rein in an opaque and underregulated real estate market. It is a presale-tiered finance framework designed to restrain the speculative use of buyer advances.

Developers who secure more than 80pc of project costs from presales will be compelled to provide a 20pc loan guarantee. Those with presale receipts between 50pc and 80pc will be required to present a bank guarantee and commit one-fourth of the total project cost as a disbursed loan.

For underfunded projects below the 50pc mark, the draft imposes the heaviest restrictions, including CFO-backed guarantees and stringent disbursement limits. Only 30pc of the construction funds may be accessed, with half of which is withheld until 20pc of the construction is verified.

The regulation mandates escrow accounts co-managed by developers and buyer representatives, echoing international practices that insulate buyers’ funds from potential misuse. Disbursements tied to construction milestones should be reported to banks within two weeks, while project infractions, ranging from unauthorised presales to misleading marketing, could invite stiff penalties, including fines of up to one million Birr and permanent license revocation.

However,  the rollout is already encountering industry headwinds.

Alemayehu Ketema, president of the newly formed Association and a veteran developer, warned that the proposed financial guarantees risk inflating housing costs rather than curbing developer risk.

He criticised the draft for lacking flexibility in its treatment of fluctuating input costs, VAT computations, and cost pass-throughs in partially completed housing units.

“Without government backing to lower operational costs, especially land lease fees and the price of imported materials, housing will remain unaffordable,” Alemayehu told Fortune, on the sidelines of the draft’s presentation at the Summit.

Alemayehu also lobbied for exemptions for smaller-scale projects under 6,000Sqm, along with revised procedures for modifying site maps in near-completed projects.

The Association is not merely pushing back. It is also actively repositioning. Its Secretary General, Kedir Seid, announced plans to establish a headquarters and engage the state-owned Ethiopian Investment Holdings in bulk-import arrangements to lower input prices and sidestep foreign exchange bottlenecks.

Letters of credit, long seen as a choke point, have become a primary industry grievance.

“Bulk importing will give us stronger negotiation power,” Alemayehu said.

Officials appear receptive but cautious. Tsegaye Moshe, an advisor at the Ministry, disclosed that eligibility for discounted land leases in Addis Abeba has been relaxed, from a 10,000-unit threshold to 2,500 units, in a bid to attract affordable housing projects. Areas under the Industrial Parks Development Corporation (IPDC) are now obliged to build a minimum of 500 units, and presales for joint and fractional ownership structures have received formal sanction.

A liberalisation move permits foreign investors to own up to 49pc of real estate projects through joint ventures, conditional on capital inflows being denominated in foreign currency. These arrangements are expected to support technology transfer and skills development, while fully compliant domestic developers are expected to benefit from land grants and duty-free status, even outside public-led housing initiatives.

The regulatory recalibration arrives amid a profound urban housing shortfall. Ethiopia’s urban population has surged by 160pc over the past 15 years, with Addis Abeba alone needing nearly 1.2 million housing units. While the World Bank projects a national need for 486,000 homes annually, completions hover around 165,000. Private developers have contributed only 21,000 units over a decade, dwarfed by the government’s condominium scheme, which has registered over one million units but handed over only 384,000.

Soaring prices and limited mortgage access unveil this undersupply.

A one-bedroom condominium now commands 1.1 million Br, while two- to three-bedroom units fetch as high as nine million Birr. Compounding the problem is the exponential growth in construction costs, which are now 43 times higher than they were 25 years ago, far outpacing the fivefold increase in public salaries. With only four percent of private housing financed through formal bank loans, informal credit continues to dominate.

Stakeholders like Meseret Mekonen, CEO of NMC Real Estate, bemoan a credit environment steeped in aversion. Despite delivering 1,000 homes, Meseret failed to secure a two billion Birr loan for an 11.5 billion Br project.

“I approached 10 banks,” she said. “None were confident enough to lend. I’m building entirely using my own resources.”

Others echo her frustration. Zinabu Tebeje of Africon Group dismissed assumptions of 300pc profit margins, attributing pricing pressures to rising input costs rather than developer profiteering.

Zinabu estimated that land and labour alone account for half of a project’s cost structure, further squeezing margins.

“Housing prices have remained stable for the past three years despite rising construction costs,” Zinabu said.

In an environment where soft loan facilities are scarce and long-term mortgages remain commercially unviable, many developers are calling for bolder policy intervention. These include subsidised interest rates, free land allocations, and duty-free import status, particularly for developers meeting affordability benchmarks and sustainability metrics.

Yet, regulatory opacity remains a concern. The rules surrounding fractional ownership are still ill-defined, and developers fear double taxation under certain private partnership structures.

For Leul Dereje, a veteran consultant, the proposed presale collection threshold needs a clear definition, especially in a market increasingly oriented toward semi-finished units. He also warned that a looming 10pc fuel price hike could further erode already thin margins.

“Long-term mortgages are unprofitable, and real estate loans are widely abused,” he told Fortune, citing banks’ reluctance to extend tenors.

The draft’s strict disciplinary measures, he argued, should be matched with reforms that promote liquidity and clarify contract enforcement.

“The blocked account mandate benefits banks more than builders,” Leul said. “We need fund release schedules better aligned with real construction milestones.”

Still, the Ministry remains firm on its long-term objectives, localising 70pc of construction inputs within a decade and drafting a separate housing finance proclamation to build out the moribund mortgage sector. The broader goal, according to Tsegaye, is to root out speculative excess while enabling a robust, transparent, and scalable housing market.

Debebe Seifu serves as the finance director of the Association and the general manager of Jambo Real Estate & Construction. He wants to see the upcoming regulation to target the legal uncertainties that enable fraud under rigid compliance regimes. He urged more straightforward guidelines on fractional ownership and private partnerships to enable “a level playing field.”

However, as the regulation winds its way through consultations and revisions, the balancing act between protection and productivity has only just begun.

Electric Blitz Strands Domestic Car Builders

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A sudden ban on the importation of semi-knockdown and completely knockdown kits for gasoline-powered vehicles, a move authorities say rapidly accelerates a shift toward electric mobility, has left a burgeoning industry disoriented.

For the domestic assemblers that produced roughly 21,800 vehicles last year, including more than 2,000 electric units, the edict landed without warning. Many had been operating lines dedicated to gasoline kits, supported by bank letters of credit and a predictable import regime.

For Mintesnot Tessera, general manager of Belayab Motors, one of the 14 assemblers active in the market, the authorities “never provided” a firm timeline, although he had seen a sign about a potential ban.

Effective May 15, 2025, the measure allows only electric, hybrid or ambulance kits to enter the country. According to officials of the Ministry of Industry, the policy move forms part of a broader, 10-year strategy to phase out gasoline cars, develop local technical skills, curb mounting fuel import bills and tackle worsening pollution in Addis Abeba and other cities.

However, the abrupt cutoff has thrown manufacturers and buyers into uncertainty, an outcome policymakers are now scrambling to manage.

“A clear transition period would have allowed the industry to adjust,” Mintesnot told Fortune.

Until May’s announcement, assemblers like Multiverse Enterprise Plc had mapped out plans for new diesel and electric taxi models. Multiverse, which had partnered with the Defence Engineering Industry Corporation (DEIC) to assemble 5,000 vehicles, relied on a down payment of roughly 1.5 million Br for a five million Birr diesel package. Under the new rules, electric taxis now carry a sticker price of 8.5 million Br with a 2.5 million Birr down payment, an increase many drivers cannot absorb.

“For almost all drivers, this amount is financially out of reach,” said Nuredin Ditamo, chairperson of the Blen Taxi Association. “Desperate operators had hoped for state support or trade-in programs to cushion the blow.”

In addition to the financial shock, infrastructure shortcomings pose another obstacle to rapid electrification. Charging stations remain scarce outside of Addis Abeba, and most current installations offer slow charging. Field vehicles used in remote regions, typically double-cabin pickups, often lack electric versions with the necessary range or payload capacity.

Semereab Serekeberhan, deputy board director of the Ethiopian Automotive Industries Association, applauded the green push but urged policymakers to allow exemptions for specialised vehicles until viable electric alternatives are available.

“We’re not informed ahead of time,” he said. “Without exemptions, critical services could be disrupted.”

The policy has also strained financing channels. The Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE), the largest state-owned lender, has declined to open letters of credit for gasoline-based kits since the ban on such transactions was implemented.

According to Seid Negash, who heads Multiverse’s import operations, banks are concerned about the risk of importing now-prohibited items. The abrupt tax and customs changes have also compounded liquidity pressures. With no formal grace period for existing inventory, assemblers have faced the choice between writing off assets or scrambling to retool facilities for a product line in which the domestic market is still nascent.

On June 9, the Ethiopian Customs Commission issued instructions to its regional offices, mandating stricter inspection protocols and designating that any attempt to import kits not allowed will incur penalties equal to twice the vehicle’s value, along with forfeiture. According to Yonas Teklewoled, head of the Commission’s operations division, detailed declarations and rigorous oversight are essential to enforce the ban.

“We remain aligned with the policy’s goals,” he told Fortune. “But, explicit directives are important to ensure smooth implementation.”

Within the Ministry of Industry, officials are racing to fine-tune technical guidelines and policy frameworks. Tilahun Abay, strategic affairs executive,  acknowledged the need for a “reasonable adjustment period” to train workers and allow existing gasoline kits, many of which benefited from prior government support, to clear customs.

The Ministry plans to convene affected parties for a series of meetings to address issues and roll out financial and administrative incentives for local electric vehicle (EV) assemblers.

Still, analysts warn that rolling out ambitious green policies without commensurate infrastructure and regulatory certainty can backfire.

Bereket Tesfaye, an EV consultant and general manager of Circular Nexus Consulting, praised the government’s environmental objectives but cautioned that the country’s grid remains fragile and that trained technicians are in short supply. He urged the authorities to study the staged approach used in countries like Norway, where incentives for early adopters and careful sequencing of charging-network expansion accompanied gradual phase-outs of gasoline vehicles.

“Policy must be anchored in real-world constraints,” he said. “Without meticulous planning, we risk creating new problems while failing to solve existing ones.”

Hefty Deposit Thresholds Threaten Maritime Labour Export Ambitions

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Mufariat Kamil, minister of Labour & Skills (MoLS), is rewriting the rules on overseas work, hoping to export skilled labour rather than being limited to housemaid services.

A bill her experts have circulated would let fully foreign-owned outsourcing agencies operate in the country and launch in the maritime trade, where her officials want Ethiopia, though landlocked, to supply crews to world shipping lines. The Ethiopian Maritime Training Institute S.C. (EMTI), in partnership with Bahir-Dar University, graduates more than 500 marine engineering and electro-technical officers each year. Its executives want to see this figure doubled.

The Ethiopian Manning Agency GmbH places graduates with established carriers, transforming classrooms in the Amhara Regional State into a talent pool for vessels thousands of miles away.

The bill encourages foreign agencies that can train workers and secure placements, a step Mufariat and her officials believe is needed, as experienced local agents are scarce. The measure also shifts labour-export policy toward jobs that require credentials, starting with seafarers but designed to extend later to other skilled occupations.

The existing law, written mainly for housemaids bound for the Gulf countries, left professionals such as officers and engineers out in the cold. When the Ministry assumed the mandate of overseas employment, it began drafting a replacement, hoping to curb illegal brokerage and murky fees through a central labour market information system and stricter oversight. Close to 92pc of the 521,000 workers sent since 2023 have passed through this system.

“The draft law introduces major changes to the outsourcing of Ethiopian workers,” said Sitina Mengistu, a legal adviser at the Ministry.

Under existing rules, agencies cannot send workers abroad unless Ethiopia has a bilateral deal with the destination country. The bill would permit outsourcing through Ethiopian consulates, even in the absence of a bilateral agreement. It also lets the Ministry work with foreign companies to train and certify labour that could later be hired overseas.

“We’ll work out the details during implementation to ensure it complies with conflict-of-interest rules and allows qualified foreign maritime agencies to operate here,” she told Fortune.

Money is where the draft bites. Employers should pay for contract authentication, but workers still bear the costs of passports, police clearances, birth certificates, and training. Agencies would need capital of five million Birr to 20 million Br and are required to park bonds of 50,000 to 250,000 dollars in blocked accounts, thresholds that rise with the license class. Those funds cannot be drawn down for day-to-day expenses, removing an incentive that agencies previously leveraged to secure credit or earn interest.

However, the deposit required unsettles smaller outfits such as Bereka, an Addis Abeba-based agency that mainly places housemaids, drivers and occasional hairdressers. Its managers say they lack the cash for a lump-sum deposit.

“We want to send skilled labour to foreign employment,” said Mohammed Awel, a founding shareholder. “If the Ministry makes things possible, we want to be part of it.”

However, he feared that the blocked-account rule was a burden the firm could not overcome.

Resistance is spreading inside the Ethiopian Overseas Employment Agencies Federation. Its members have discussed the issue twice.

“Most agencies opposed its core ideas,” said Seid Ahmed, the group’s public-relations head and a board member.

Seid faults the bill for omitting crisis-management plans for natural disasters or diplomatic rifts and questions whether many companies can afford the annual renewal fees or the value lost on the deposit that earns no interest.

“This could severely damage the sector,” he said, warning that up to 80pc of agencies could close if the thresholds stand. “We play a crucial role in generating foreign currency income.”

According to Aseged Getachew, an economist by training and former state minister for Labour, local firms rarely recruit directly. Instead, they sign deals with foreign partners and earn commissions of about 900 dollars a worker, an amount that often drops to 500 or 600 dollars when they chase volume.

“It’s a volume game,” he told Fortune. “Sometimes, you’ve got to compromise to stay in the business.”

Aseged sees upside in letting established maritime agencies to run operations in Ethiopia, arguing that trained officers could boost foreign-currency earnings.

“We’ve the workforce, and with the right channels, we can become a key player in the global maritime labour market,” he said.

Still, he finds gaps. The bill does not say which local agencies may focus on skilled labour, and none now do. He also fears the quarter of a million dollars in deposits will deter most players and leave the field to a few well-funded firms. Without clearer tiers, he warned, larger companies might encroach on roles intended for smaller ones.

“Unless these barriers are reconsidered, we risk locking out the very actors who’ve kept this sector alive,” he warned.

Officials say they will listen, and the bill remains open for comment. Federation members are drafting counterproposals that lower bond levels, stagger renewal fees, and outline how to rescue workers in the event of a war or pandemic. Employers, meanwhile, are crunching numbers to see whether higher service charges can offset the tougher rules.