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Month: January 2025

Inflation’s Lingering Impact, the Need for Stronger Consumer Protection

Posted on by Yeabkal

According to Statista, a platform that aggregates vital data and provides future projections through advanced analytics, Ethiopia’s inflation trend is expected to decline steadily in the coming decades. Statista offers tools for data analysis, management, statistics, machine learning, and data visualisation. While the projection seems promising, the positive effects are yet to be felt.

In 2024, inflation eased compared to its 2023 peak, which was the highest since 2008, a year marked by the global financial crisis. However, the impact of inflation and the cost of living often takes much longer to reverse, especially in a country where the majority live below the poverty line.

According to a 2023 UNDP publication, based on data from the Oxford Poverty & Human Development Initiative, 68.7pc of Ethiopians are multidimensionally poor, with an additional 18.4pc on the brink of poverty. This means nearly 87pc of the population is highly vulnerable to inflation’s effects. For these groups, even minor price increases can have severe consequences.

Other macroeconomic factors, such as currency devaluation, rising fuel prices, and unemployment, further exacerbate the burden on the vast majority. Despite Ethiopia’s rapid economic growth, the benefits are diluted, and the cost of living continues to weigh heavily, especially in a country with a large, low-income population.

On a personal level, I now check menu prices before looking at meals whenever I visit a restaurant. Successive price hikes across eateries have made this a habit. With few exceptions, food prices seem to rise constantly. In Ethiopia, food costs are the primary driver of inflation, disproportionately affecting the majority who spend most of their income on food.

Even though inflation rates stabilised in 2024 and are projected to remain steady beyond 2025, the trickle-down benefits are unlikely to reach the population any time soon. For most, the pain of inflation will linger far longer than the data suggests.

The steady rise in non-food commodity prices also continues unabated, though it may not be as widely felt across all sectors of society. Costs for housing, automobiles, maintenance, spare parts, clothing, footwear, electronics, and other goods remain on an upward trajectory. Often, the pricing of these items seems unjustifiable. Imported commodities frequently cost two to three times more than in their countries of origin. Used cars, manufactured three to four decades ago and no longer in use in their home countries, are sold at exorbitant prices, with values continuing to climb even after years of service.

I often wonder what market forces justify such prices. While I am neither an economist nor deeply researched in the field, I suspect hidden hands, beyond the market’s invisible force, manipulate situations to maximise profits. In Freakonomics, a book by economist Steven Levitt and journalist Stephen J. Dubner, the authors show how fear influences consumer behaviour, often exploited by traders and middlemen through dubious tactics.

A telling example is the Sunday vegetable market in Addis Abeba. One weekend, I went to the Ayat Sunday market to buy groceries. My motivation was freshness rather than price, though I expected some savings compared to local neighbourhood shops. After purchasing tomatoes, onions, potatoes, and other items, I realised I had saved more than 50pc compared to buying from nearby stalls. Even after accounting for transportation and rental costs, the price disparity was staggering. It became clear that such inflated prices were driven more by individual greed than by market forces. Consumers are being unfairly burdened by irrational and inconsiderate traders, stripping them of their hard-earned income.

It is high time society forms strong consumer protection groups to ensure fair pricing. While Ethiopia has government legislation dating back decades to protect consumer interests, collective societal action is needed to use its bargaining power effectively. The Ethiopian Trade Competition & Consumer Protection Authority (TCCPA) serves as the main consumer watchdog. This entity comprises industry specialists, lawmakers, and market experts.

However, the effectiveness of such initiatives in curbing consumer exploitation remains uncertain. There is still a long way to go in empowering consumers to leverage their influence for fair trade. Interestingly, Ethiopia seems to have an overrepresentation of political and religious watchdogs compared to economic ones, despite the cost of living impacting every aspect of life, including politics.

To unleash the power of consumers, it is essential to educate them about their untapped bargaining potential. Currently, consumers are like a sleeping giant, doing little beyond complaining and assuming prices are imposed without their involvement. Many are unaware that they have the right to demand fair pricing and challenge exploitative schemes. However, isolated individual disputes are ineffective against an established market and skilled traders who can easily turn situations in their favour.

It is insufficient for a single agency to oversee a vast market like Ethiopia’s, with its 120 million people and its economy, now the fourth largest in Africa.

Consumer watchdogs must function as a consortium of civic groups organised by community, geography, and the types of products consumed. These groups should coordinate at municipal, regional, and national levels while working closely with the state on legislation, advocacy, and enforcement.

Once an effective platform is established, consumers could reap benefits from fair trade practices. Empowered consumers would not only create a healthier market but also benefit traders, as fair practices promote competition, trust and sustainable business. Traders, who are also consumers in other sectors, could gain from a fair system.

The state would benefit from a stable and transparent market. A fair system encourages socioeconomic development, spurs entrepreneurship, builds wealth, and strengthens trust among all stakeholders. Ultimately, such a system works fairly and equitably for everyone involved.

Monetary Policy Walks a Tightrope Battling Inflation While Stifling Growth

Posted on by Yeabkal

I read with keen interest Tesfaye Boru’s (PhD) commentary published last week [January 19, 2025] on policy orthodoxy, which involves imposing high rates, steep reserve requirements, and mandated bond purchases designed to contain inflation in the short run. He was spot on in arguing that adhering to orthodoxy risks choking off investments and productivity gains.

In a country where agriculture and manufacturing remain crucial engines of employment and exports, sustained credit squeezes can trigger the very malaise they hope to prevent. Their effort to curb inflation by maintaining a 15pc benchmark interest rate, imposing strict reserve requirements, and mandating that banks allocate 20pc of their loan portfolios to government bonds is testing the boundaries of a conventional economic strategy.

Their measures follow a traditional inflation-fighting playbook. They attempt to tame rising prices by squeezing liquidity out of private credit markets, but such a rigid policy risks hobbling the economy. Without careful recalibration, this approach could stifle investment, dampen consumer spending, and erode trust in policymakers’ capacity to deliver stability and growth. Higher borrowing costs and tight monetary conditions generally slow demand and hold down prices. But, emerging markets offer cautionary accounts of what happens when policy becomes too rigid.

Several years ago, Brazil faced a similar dilemma when inflation threatened to derail its economy. Its policymakers shifted away from a high benchmark rate of 14.25pc and gradually lowered it to 6.5pc. The rate cuts spurred household consumption, renewed private-sector investment, and helped revive growth. South Korea provides another example of how a country can balance discipline with strategic flexibility. During its industrial expansion, its policymakers directed credit toward priority sectors such as manufacturing and exports, ensuring funds flowed where they could spur productivity and generate foreign revenue.

Turkey, in contrast, serves as a warning. Its reliance on prolonged monetary tightening weighed heavily on production costs, leaving inflation stubbornly high. That experience uncovered the risk of pinning too much on blunt interest-rate tools while neglecting structural issues.

Ethiopia now faces a similar conundrum. By requiring banks to funnel a portion of their lending into government securities, the authorities effectively starve key industries, mainly manufacturing and agriculture, of affordable credit. These are sectors that depend on capital to grow, modernise, and compete globally. Cutting them off from financing could undermine the country’s long-term economic potential, especially if rising unemployment meets stagnant exports.

Interest rates alone often fail to address the root causes of inflation in low-income or developing economies. In Ethiopia, price pressures are partly driven by supply-side bottlenecks such as logistical inefficiencies, costly imports, and limited infrastructure. China’s development strategy offers an instructive contrast.

Massive investments in transportation networks, energy systems, and communications infrastructure improved productivity and lowered production costs, helping tame inflation without resorting solely to high interest rates. By focusing on supply-side reforms, China balanced price stability with robust growth. Ethiopia could emulate this approach by prioritising infrastructure spending that reduces transport and logistics costs.

The foreign exchange regime is another area for reform. The authorities’ decision to liberalise the currency is an important step, but liberalisation alone would not deliver growth unless complemented by measures that help exporters manage currency risk and expand their markets. South Korea’s policy mix during its high-growth era is particularly instructive. Its government introduced tax breaks and other incentives for export-focused industries, which boosted foreign reserves and stabilised the currency.

If Ethiopia were to adopt a similar strategy, currency liberalisation might spark investment and fortify the economy against external shocks. Otherwise, a floating exchange rate could expose the economy to volatile capital flows and currency gyrations (a whirling motion) that worsen inflation rather than cure it.

High interest rates also take a psychological toll on households and businesses. When credit becomes scarce and expensive, small firms struggle to expand, and families cut back on spending. The risk is a downward spiral of slackening demand, weaker profits, and further caution among lenders and borrowers. Confidence can unravel if people begin to doubt the Central Bank’s ability to balance stability with growth, making economic recovery even tougher.

In Turkey, consumers and businesses grew frustrated as repeated tightening cycles failed to rein in inflation, fueling scepticism about central bankers’ stewardship. Ethiopia faces the same credibility crisis unless it starts loosening the spigot in measured steps. The European Central Bank’s response to the eurozone crisis illustrates how targeted liquidity injections can maintain a financial system without igniting runaway inflation.

Infrastructure-led growth has the added benefit of boosting employment, especially in sectors that can absorb a large labour force. Improved roads, railways, and other logistics systems also reduce wasted time and spoilage in agriculture, lowering costs for producers and consumers. The emphasis on manufacturing, particularly textiles and light industry, would gain a much-needed lift if firms could count on reliable and affordable electricity, consistent water supply, and swift transport routes to ports. By making such investments, Ethiopia could chip away at the structural drivers of inflation while laying a foundation for steady expansion and more resilient supply chains.

Opening temporary liquidity windows could help banks extend credit to struggling businesses and keep the private sector afloat while broader reforms take hold. Such a move would be most effective in tandem with selective rate adjustments and a recalibrated reserve requirement, freeing up capital that banks can lend to high-impact industries.

The goal should be to preserve monetary discipline while recognising that blanket tightening can turn counterproductive when it starves the economy of the funds it needs to grow.

The Trade Shifts Redefining Economic Development

Posted on by Yeabkal

Global trade is undergoing a profound transformation, driven by three major shifts. New technologies are redefining countries’ comparative advantages and the types of goods they produce and export. The revival of activist trade and industrial policies threatens to distort trade flows and provoke retaliatory measures. And escalating tensions risk fragmenting the global economy along geopolitical lines.

The combined force of these shifts can reshape global trade patterns, marking a clear departure from the global economic landscape that defined the past three decades. Although the changing nature of globalisation is at the forefront of current policy debates, the focus has primarily been on the needs and priorities of advanced economies.

But what are the implications for developing economies?

To answer this question, it is essential to understand the role of trade and globalisation in advancing development. Over the past three decades, many developing economies have pursued an export-led growth model, benefiting from immediate efficiency gains and sustained productivity improvements. Initially, these economies specialised in low-skill, labour-intensive manufacturing, leveraging abundant workforces and investments from advanced economies.

Their newfound access to global markets and foreign expertise enabled them to adopt new technologies and achieve economies of scale. As trade-driven manufacturing growth spilled into other sectors, it became a powerful engine of broader economic progress.

Admittedly, development does not happen in a vacuum. The post-1990 surge of export-led growth depended on several critical factors, chief among them technological advances, particularly in information and communication technologies, that paved the way for the emergence of globalised supply chains. With production processes divided across multiple countries and components traded across borders, developing economies were able to capitalise on their comparative advantages by specialising in specific manufacturing tasks.

The second factor was effective policymaking. The embrace of multilateralism, the entry of developing countries into the World Trade Organisation (WTO), and the minimal use of industrial policy by advanced economies enhanced the predictability and openness of the global trade system. Meanwhile, “deep” trade agreements served as a mechanism to discourage trade-distorting measures and promote structural reforms.

Lastly, the end of the Cold War ushered in a period of relative geopolitical stability, peace, and predictability. This environment, underpinned by a philosophy that prioritised economic efficiency over national security concerns and political ideologies, was instrumental in ensuring the smooth functioning of global supply chains.

But, conditions have changed, as evidenced by technological innovations like robotisation, 3D printing, and artificial intelligence (AI), which could have far-reaching and complex implications for economic development. Although the wave of automation fueled by these technologies threatens to displace low-skilled workers, eroding the competitiveness of labour-abundant, low-income economies, it could also enable companies to boost productivity and expand. This, in turn, might increase demand for intermediate inputs and stimulate trade with developing countries.

Perhaps more importantly, technological advances could make services more tradable, unlocking new opportunities for export-led growth but also posing significant challenges for developing economies. Unlike manufacturing, business and IT services require a highly skilled workforce. To transform such service sectors into growth engines, governments will need to invest heavily in training and upskilling workers.

The implications of shifts in policies and geopolitics for global trade are equally complicated. Approximately 20pc of the industrial policies adopted by developed economies in 2023 were driven by geopolitical and national security considerations. For example, measures targeting electric vehicles and semiconductors were justified as an effort to diversify supply chains away from geopolitically sensitive locations.

While the short-term effects of geopolitical tensions are the subject of ongoing research, one notable finding from our work is that they fundamentally reshape trade flows. The United States is a case in point. Since the start of the Sino-American trade tensions in 2018, several developing countries have emerged as key suppliers to the US market. This can be attributed to the apparent reconfiguration of global supply chains and, crucially, to the rerouting of Chinese-made intermediate goods through third countries.

That said, trade tensions are not inherently beneficial for developing economies. For starters, the countries that have gained the most from the reallocation of trade flows are not low-income economies on the margins of globalisation, but rather those already deeply integrated into the global trading system, such as Malaysia, Mexico, and Vietnam.

Simulations show that the world’s fragmentation into competing blocs would hit low-income countries the hardest. Over the past three decades, access to open global markets has created enormous growth opportunities for developing economies. Moving away from this model would disproportionately harm poorer countries that lack the large domestic and regional markets needed to offset the loss of international trade.

To be sure, the new global economic landscape is still taking shape. But, it is increasingly clear that the changing nature of globalisation will make it harder to replicate the export-driven growth miracles of the past few decades. Addressing the three major trade shifts reshaping our world calls for pragmatic and forward-looking solutions.

The Key to Narrowing the Development Gap

Posted on by Yeabkal

In 2015, United Nations member states unanimously pledged to work toward “peace and prosperity for people and the planet” by meeting 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. Although the agenda was unprecedented in its ambition – end hunger, slash inequality, spur economic growth, achieve gender equality, arrest climate change, and ensure access to water, sanitation, and energy – many expected that the world would make significant progress.

But the sad, hard truth is that only 12pc of the SDGs’ 140 measurable targets are heading in the right direction, and more than 30pc are stalled or moving in reverse.

There is still hope, though. A single sector that holds the key to closing half of the outstanding sustainable development gaps in agri-food systems in Africa. The continent is home to over half of all people facing extreme poverty, and more than half of those facing acute food insecurity. One in five people in the region suffers from undernourishment, and nearly one in three children is affected by stunting. Africa is also home to around one-fifth of the global agricultural workforce and is projected to become home to 49pc of migrants displaced by climate shocks by 2050.

Thus, investing in African agri-food systems can have an outsize impact, allowing us to tackle a range of thorny issues – from hunger and poor health to poverty and undereducation – at the scale needed to keep up with the growth of Africa’s population, which is expected to double, to 2.4 billion, by 2050.

The biggest hurdle, of course, is financial. African agri-food systems are seriously underfunded. The sector receives less than three percent of global development funds and under five percent of total investments in Africa from public, private, and development funding combined. The average African farmer receives less than 140 dollar a year in total investment, far below comparable figures for India (800 dollars), Brazil (1,800 dollars), or Thailand (2,000 dollars). Some Britons and Americans spend more on coffee in the space of a month.

This chronic underfunding has taken a heavy toll. African agricultural productivity is 60pc below the global average, and food imports are projected to cost the continent 110 billion dollars annually by 2030. But with targeted capital and sustained attention, this can change. Boosting agricultural productivity would help feed a growing population, reduce import dependency, protect biodiversity, and restore soil health. Greater investments in the sector can secure the livelihoods of 250 million small-scale farmers and address the urgent need for climate resilience in a region disproportionately affected by global warming.

The benefits of investing in African food systems extend far beyond the continent. Africa’s natural carbon sinks will continue to mitigate climate change, but only if they are preserved. And strengthened agricultural systems can stabilise global food supply chains against disruptions caused by pandemics, conflicts, and climate shocks, by helping to rehabilitate the continent’s farmland, 65pc of which is degraded.

But, unlocking global benefits requires global engagement. Fortunately, African agri-food systems represent a compelling business opportunity. Aside from the fact that the continent boasts an increasingly skilled, youthful labour force and much of the world’s remaining arable land, investments in its food systems are 2.5 to three times more effective in raising incomes than those in other sectors.

Investors also stand to gain by coupling agri-food investments with investment in infrastructure such as energy, water, and technology, which will transform African agricultural systems into major sources of growth. Hundreds of small and medium-sized enterprises are already moving inputs, providing services, and hauling hundreds of millions of metric tons of food between rural and urban areas every day. This is a strong base for investors to build on.

So, what needs to happen next?

At the Paris Peace Forum earlier this year, we unveiled the Agricultural Transformation Lab for African Solutons (ATLAS), a permanent platform to advocate for increased investment, align priorities, and promote transparency and accountability in African agri-food systems. Since then, 30 organisations have joined, demonstrating real momentum behind the initiative. Members span from the private sector, including OCP Group and the Boston Consulting Group, development organisations (including AGRA and ONE Campaign) and leading financiers, such as the International Finance Corporation and the French Development Agency (AFD).

At this year’s annual World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, ATLAS is launching the 2×30 Challenge, which calls on leading development funders to commit to doubling total annual investments (from about 50 billion to 100 billion dollars) in Africa’s agri-food systems by 2030. To ensure that the additional funding does materialise and has a meaningful impact, it will be tracked through an annual investment barometer.

Increasing investment is a first step toward building more productive, sustainable, and resilient African food systems. Supporting Africa’s farmers is not only an opportunity. It is indispensable to achieving global development goals.

In Africa’s Embrace of AI, a Double-Edged Sword Looms Over Security, Peace

Posted on by Yeabkal

Last year, the African Union’s Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace & Security, Bankole Adeoye (Amb.), described a growing phenomenon that could determine the fate of many African countries. He stated the rise of artificial intelligence’s (AI) power to transform nearly every aspect of life, from governance to human security. But, he also warned that Africa risked becoming a testing ground for technologies that, while offering critical advantages, could introduce new threats if not properly regulated. He urged leaders to recognise AI’s dual potential, its promise to strengthen governance and peace, and its capacity to undermine both if left unchecked.

The concerns presented by Adeoye gained urgency as AI-driven tools began appearing in African conflict zones and security operations. Many saw the benefit of advanced surveillance systems, data-driven conflict prevention, and sophisticated early-warning mechanisms meant to help communities avert violence. In theory, AI could feed into the African Union’s Continental Early Warning System, offering richer, real-time intelligence on belligerents, the interplay of local actors, and hotspots where conflict might escalate.

The data these systems generate could, at least in part, support efforts to mediate disputes and encourage dialogue among communities teetering on the edge of conflict. AI could also be channelled into peacekeeping operations, making it easier to monitor ceasefires, broker peace agreements, and ensure that belligerents did not violate the terms of any negotiated settlement.

But, reality on the ground often brings a harsher perspective.

Over the last two years, African conflict theatres have seen more sophisticated deployment of AI tools than ever before. Using drones and autonomous systems has reshaped the balance of power and raised the stakes for state and non-state actors, many of whom do not follow international law. In places such as Libya, the Sahel, Sudan, Somalia, and the Great Lakes region, drones have been used for intelligence gathering, reconnaissance, and direct attacks on military installations and populated areas. This escalation has led to an alarming increase in civilian casualties, generating questions about the legal, ethical, and humanitarian consequences of AI-aided warfare.

In July 2024, reports of parties jamming global positioning systems and conducting spoofing cyberattacks sent jitters through security circles, stoking fears that these tactics could extend to civilian aviation and other critical infrastructure.

These developments have also troubled intelligence services, which are now struggling with evidence that terrorist organisations operating in the Sahel, as well as militant groups like Al Shabaab or the Islamic State in Somalia, have acquired and deployed drones against military camps. Ethiopia’s Air Force, presumably recognising this shift in the tactical environment, announced last year the establishment of a drone unit that would incorporate AI-driven capabilities. Such moves demonstrated a regional arms race in which AI becomes not merely an appendage to traditional military hardware but a decisive factor in how power is projected and maintained.

Beyond the visible use of AI in combat, there is a quieter threat with equally profound implications. Though ostensibly neutral, AI systems can become vectors of disinformation if hijacked or manipulated. A policy brief by the United Nations University Centre for Policy Research (UNU-CPR) discovered how generative AI, from natural language models to deepfake technologies, has accelerated the production and spread of false or misleading information. Since OpenAI’s ChatGPT was publicly launched in December 2022, political conflicts across sub-Saharan Africa have been inflamed by waves of AI-generated content crafted to mislead voters, promote extremist ideologies, or foment distrust in state institutions.

These toxic messages can now spread more rapidly and easily penetrate regions with limited internet access through proxies that exploit social media loopholes and local communication channels.

Complicating matters further, AI systems often draw on datasets that may embed ethnic, social, or economic biases. If a government or an institution invests in AI models without carefully auditing how they learn, it risks magnifying existing discrimination. In Africa, where fractures along tribal, religious, and socioeconomic lines can be acute, the deployment of biased AI could erode citizens’ trust in everything from law enforcement to judicial proceedings and inadvertently target vulnerable communities.

On the other side of the spectrum, authoritarian regimes could co-opt AI-driven surveillance tools to suppress political opposition, muzzle free speech, and cement their hold on power, all in the name of maintaining stability.

In response, the African Union Peace & Security Council (AUPSC) took several steps to guide AI’s responsible integration into security policies. Its meeting, held on June 13, 2024, culminated in a communique that stressed the role of the African Union Commission in undertaking a comprehensive study on AI’s impact on peace, security, stability, democracy, and development. The document also recommended mainstreaming AI into peace processes, urging stakeholders to incorporate AI in mediation, reconciliation, and post-conflict reconstruction efforts. It offered guidance on integrating AI into military operations while complying with ethical standards and international humanitarian law, cautioning against the deployment of AI in ways that might increase civilian harm.

The communique called for using AI-driven tools to combat disinformation and fake news while considering the potential for AI itself to generate deceptive content. It emphasised the necessity of strengthening cybersecurity measures by harnessing AI to track and neutralise digital threats efficiently. It stressed the need to equip early-warning systems with AI so officials can anticipate and defuse emerging crises.

Acknowledging the continent’s demographic dynamics, the communique urged AI-driven initiatives to empower youth and women through education, entrepreneurship, and leadership opportunities, seeing inclusivity as a shield against instability. It also urged for data protection and transparency, from national to cross-border levels, arguing that AI’s governance should be harmonised with the protection of civil liberties. And, in a sign of the African Union’s determination to shape rather than merely react to the global AI conversation, the communique demanded the urgent development of a Global Compact on Artificial Intelligence while calling on the Commission to expedite a Common African Position on AI’s impact on peace, security, democracy, and development.

As if to follow through on these directives, the African Union Executive Council adopted the AU Strategy on Artificial Intelligence at its 45th Ordinary Session in Accra, Ghana. The strategy aims to extract the benefits of AI for African nations by encouraging capability-building, investment, and collaboration across the public and private sectors. At the same time, it endeavours to curb AI risks through ethical supervision and regulatory vigilance. By ensuring that AI deployment aligns with human rights and democratic values, the strategy aspires to position Africa not as a passive recipient of external technologies but as an active participant in global tech governance.

The new framework urges collaboration between African governments and their regional and international partners, including the United Nations and private-sector firms, to define principles for AI usage in conflict zones. These efforts acknowledge that AI crosses national boundaries too easily for any single country to handle alone. The strategy portrays Africa’s voice in global AI debates as essential to ensuring that the continent’s historical, social, and material contexts factor into the design of AI standards.

Yet, no document, however thorough, can single-handedly address the disparities in infrastructure and digital capacity that shape AI adoption across Africa. While nations such as South Africa, Kenya, Rwanda, and Nigeria have moved rapidly to establish AI governance frameworks, many African countries face severe technological shortfalls, from intermittent electricity supply to limited internet connectivity. Without adequate resources, these states find themselves unable to integrate AI in early-warning systems or effectively combat AI-fueled disinformation. That gap threatens to widen the gulf between relatively technologically advanced nations and those on the margins. As a result, AI’s potential for good—from peacekeeping to public service delivery—may remain confined to better-resourced corners of the continent.

Nevertheless, a layered approach could address these risks.

The African Union’s Political Affairs, Peace & Security Department, working with the Department of Infrastructure & Energy, has been tasked with establishing a multidisciplinary advisory group on AI and governance. That group will offer proposals for continental AI governance in civilian and military domains and then report every six months to the Peace & Security Council. African leaders can also ground AI usage in well-established norms by tying AI regulations to existing international human rights standards. Africa’s position in the upcoming United Nations Summit of the Future, the forum where a Global Compact on Artificial Intelligence might emerge, could further shape how responsibly AI tools are developed and deployed worldwide.

Even if these steps are implemented efficiently, vigilance remains crucial. AI’s capacity to automate decisions raises profound questions about sovereignty, human agency, and accountability.

If an autonomous system makes a mistake in a battlefield context, mistakenly designating a civilian convoy as hostile, for example, who is responsible for that?

Local communities, civil society organisations, and technology experts should remain engaged in ongoing debates, pushing for transparency in how AI is procured and deployed. Ideally, that engagement would help keep AI from becoming merely another tool that powerful interests use to consolidate power at the expense of the vulnerable.

 

 

Wash Hands, Save Lives

Posted on by Yeabkal

In a world scarred by health crises like COVID-19, one might expect handwashing to be a universal habit. Yet, many still neglect this simple, life-saving act, spreading diseases in the process.

Hand hygiene is a basis of public health. It is a simple yet powerful practice that prevents illnesses, yet many people disregard it, risking their own health and that of others.

In Ethiopia, where communal eating from shared trays is a common practice, handwashing is even more crucial. Unfortunately, cultural norms often clash with hygiene standards. The shared nature of meals, coupled with poor hygiene, creates an ideal environment for disease transmission.

It is common to see people dining after handling cash, touching various surfaces, or leaving restrooms without washing their hands. This invisible dirt, bad odour, and potential disease on their hands seem to go unnoticed. Shockingly, a common saying suggests that handwashing is only needed after meals to remove food residue, ignoring its importance before eating.

I stopped dining with others on shared trays long ago because many eat without washing their hands. As a mother, I now go to great lengths to shield my daughter from those who attempt to feed her with unwashed hands. When I politely ask them not to, they often take offence instead of recognising the importance of hygiene.

In cultural restaurants, where groups share trays of food, some people wash their hands, but others neglect to do so. It only takes one person with unwashed hands to contaminate the entire meal, jeopardising everyone’s health.

The World Health Organization (WHO) reports that 50pc of all foodborne illnesses result from unclean hands during food preparation and handling. Hands are primary carriers of disease, constantly exposed to bacteria, viruses, and other pathogens through contact with doorknobs, cash, mobile phones, and handshakes.

According to the WHO, nearly 80pc of communicable diseases are spread through touch. Proper handwashing with soap and water is one of the most cost-effective ways to prevent these diseases.

Handling food with unwashed hands is a leading cause of foodborne illnesses. The WHO estimates that one in ten people worldwide fall ill annually from contaminated food, with poor hand hygiene being a major factor.

Diarrheal diseases remain a top cause of child mortality globally, claiming over half a million lives each year among children under five. The WHO says that handwashing with soap can reduce diarrheal diseases by up to 40pc.

Despite overwhelming evidence of its benefits, a large gap remains between awareness and behaviour. A study in the Ethiopian Journal of Health Sciences found that only 25pc of participants practised proper handwashing before meals. Alarmingly, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that only 19pc of Americans wash their hands after using the toilet, revealing poor hygiene habits even in developed nations.

Medical literature shows that infectious diseases like E. coli, salmonella, norovirus, and influenza are easily transmitted via contaminated hands. Diseases like trachoma, which can cause blindness, are also linked to poor hygiene. Simple hand and face washing can greatly reduce the spread of trachoma.

Handwashing is more than a personal habit, it is a public health responsibility. Washing hands before meals, after using the toilet, and while preparing food can prevent countless illnesses, including Helicobacter pylori, which is linked to stomach cancer.

For many, reminding them to maintain proper hygiene is seen as disrespectful, making it hard to enforce handwashing. Many people underestimate the importance of washing hands before eating, focusing only on visible cleanliness.

While limited access to clean water and soap is a major problem in rural areas, even residents of Addis Abeba often eat with dirty hands despite having access to these resources.

The country has a long way to go in shifting societal attitudes to view handwashing as a sign of respect and responsibility for personal and public health. Handwashing is a simple yet transformative habit that saves lives. It is baffling that despite its ease and proven benefits, many adults still neglect it.

Observing individuals dressed impeccably but ignoring basic hygiene reveals a widespread disconnect between appearances and health practices.

The WHO says handwashing with soap is a critical intervention that can save millions of lives each year. However, the practice remains inconsistent.

By embracing the simplicity of handwashing, we protect ourselves and contribute to healthier communities. Hygiene plays a critical role in our survival. Mahatma Gandhi once said, “Sanitation is more important than independence,” underscoring its importance for staying alive.

Handwashing with soap is one of the most cost-effective public health measures. It prevents diseases, reduces healthcare costs, decreases school absenteeism, and limits productivity losses caused by preventable illnesses.

In a world where preventable diseases claim millions of lives annually, handwashing is a simple, accessible solution. This small act has enormous potential to save lives and protect communities. The solution, quite literally, lies in our hands.

Breaking Stereotypes, Redefining Masculinity for a Just Society

Posted on by Yeabkal

A recent altercation in my neighbourhood has made me reflect on the complexities of conflict, especially among women. While I have never been involved in a physical fight, I have often vented my anger through shouting rather than aggression. This incident, however, highlighted a different form of conflict and challenged my perspective on female disputes.

The fight started over a minor disagreement between a homeowner and her domestic worker. The worker’s refusal to clean the house before leaving her job escalated into a physical confrontation. What stood out to me was how quickly the situation intensified and how additional parties got involved.

The domestic worker, backed by her guarantor and a friend, outnumbered the homeowner, resulting in a one-sided assault. This imbalance of power is common in conflicts where one party feels marginalised or unheard. The involvement of the homeowner’s husband and a relative further escalated the situation, turning a private disagreement into a chaotic brawl involving multiple people.

The husband and relative’s reaction, slapping one of the women in the presence of police officers, was particularly disturbing. The husband’s anger, though understandable given his wife’s injuries, was expressed in a way that contradicted the principle he likely upheld: that men should never lay hands on women. The domestic worker responded accusing the husband of weakness for striking a woman.

The relative’s aggressive and threatening behaviour further inflamed the situation, creating a volatile atmosphere. In tense moments like these, emotions can spiral out of control, leading to irrational actions and escalating conflicts beyond resolution.

The incident reflects a mindset where individuals feel above the law and take matters into their own hands. Anger is natural for everyone, men and women alike, but men must make a conscious effort to stay calm and walk away when tempers flare. Striking someone is never acceptable under any circumstances.

While progress has been made toward gender equality, a long journey remains ahead. Society must now collectively work toward fostering a more positive and constructive form of masculinity. This requires a fundamental shift in societal expectations and a conscious effort to redefine what it means to be a man.

Traditionally, masculinity has been tied to aggression, dominance, and emotional suppression. This narrow definition has limited men and reinforced harmful gender stereotypes, perpetuating cycles of violence and inequality.

Instead of clinging to outdated notions, society must promote a new vision of masculinity where men are partners, collaborators, and allies to women. This involves creating an environment where men can express emotions, seek help, and embrace vulnerability without fear of judgment.

Society needs to challenge toxic masculinity, which glorifies aggression and dismisses empathy and compassion. Ridiculing men for showing kindness, gentleness, or respect reinforces harmful stereotypes. These qualities should be celebrated as strengths, not weaknesses.

Cultivating positive masculinity benefits everyone. When men break free from harmful stereotypes, they can contribute to a more just and compassionate society.

Though I did not speak with the homeowner, my sympathy lay with the domestic worker and her friends. I saw the men striking and threatening the women, while the domestic worker and her friends seemed to be defending themselves. This incident reflects a troubling reality: some employers withhold wages from domestic workers for months, not due to financial hardship but indifference. (I am not claiming this was the case here.) This behaviour is deeply unfair.

While it is true that some domestic workers have committed wrongdoings over the years, we must not forget that they have long endured mistreatment and exploitation.

Embryonic EV Industry Crumbles as Imports Dominate Market

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Ethiopia’s electric vehicle (EV) industry is under pressure from import competition, rising taxes, and unclear policies. Assemblers cite high taxes, foreign exchange instability, lack of financing, and insufficient insurance as major problems.

The Ethiopian Automobile Industries Association (EAIA) recently submitted complaints to the ministries of Finance and Industry about tariff hikes. Taxes on completely knocked down (CKD) vehicles have increased from five percent to 25pc, while semi-knocked down (SKD) tariffs have risen from 15pc to 35pc. A new 10pc surtax has added to their burdens.

Masresha Fikade, EAIA’s general manager, criticised the tax increases and customs inspections that risk damaging spare parts. He called on the Ministry of Industry (MoI) to provide incentives for local assemblers. Masresha also blamed the entry of low-quality imported cars on the absence of a clear automobile policy.

Besufikad Shewaye, CEO of Belayneh Kinde Metal Engineering, states that EV assemblers have faced a threat from by foreign competitors. His company, which assembles city buses, minibuses, and heavy trucks, employs over 360 people and has partnerships with brands like IVECO and Golden Brand. Despite a production capacity of 1,000 passenger cars and 700 heavy trucks, only 500 trucks and 700 cars have been produced in six months.

Besufikad says that the five percent customs duty gap between EV assemblers and importers is insufficient to offset the higher production costs faced by local manufacturers. “We still have financial difficulties,” he said.

Belayab Motors, another EV assembler, has the capacity to produce 1,500 to 3,000 vehicles annually but currently assembles only 550 to 750 due to competition from imports. The company, offering over 10 EV models, finds the five percent customs gap inadequate and is considering shifting to imports.

The Association has urged the Ministry of Industry to address the minimal customs duty gap, arguing that high production costs require stronger support.

Mesayneh Wubshet, import substitution head at the MoI, noted that fuel-powered car assembly remains the industry’s main focus, as fuel-powered imports are banned. “However, local electric vehicle production has fallen short of expectations, leading to continued imports,” he said.

Although EV importers pay five percent customs duties while assemblers are exempt, local manufacturers argue the minimal gap offers little advantage. Many demand stronger support to remain competitive in the market.

The Ministry of Finance (MoF), in collaboration with stakeholders, has conducted research to boost electric vehicle (EV) adoption and support local assemblers, according to Gosa Tefera, director of tax incentives at the MoF. Following this, the Ethiopian Customs Commission (ECC) updated import levies.

The government says that there is a lack of competition in the fuel-powered vehicle market, leading to tax hikes.

Gosa stated that the tax increases were formulated after consultations with stakeholders, including industry ministers and customs. Gosa says that assemblers also benefit from tax holidays, with two-year exemptions in Addis Abeba and four years in other regions. Government offices are encouraged to purchase vehicles from local manufacturers, according to him.

Assemblers have also criticised the relaxation of pre-qualification requirements, such as garage checks, which they believe undermine quality standards.

On the import side, Biniyam Mengesha, marketing director of Markon Car Import, noted that his company, with over 12 years of experience, transitioned to EVs after the ban on gasoline-powered cars. Markon offers hybrid and electric vehicles in three price ranges and plans to begin local assembly.

Semereab Serkebirhan, a senior executive at O’Clock Motors Plc and vice chairman of the EAIA, argues that local EV assemblers face competition from large foreign manufacturers and importers due to their limited production capacity.

According to the Ministry of Industry (MoI), the assembly sector is growing, with 21,800 vehicles locally assembled in the 2023/24 fiscal year, including 2,061 EVs. However, imported EVs continue to dominate the market, with 25,000 imported in the first six months of the current fiscal year.

Menalem Haris, head of vehicles manufacturing research and development at the MoI, revealed that there are 30 vehicle assemblers, including three exclusively assembling EVs, eight producing both EVs and fuel-powered cars, and 19 focused solely on fuel-powered vehicles.

“We are researching assemblers’ capacity and addressing issues such as power fluctuations, lack of land, raw material shortages, and market inadequacy,” Menalem said. He stated that six assemblers have recently become inactive due to various problems.

In emerging markets, cheaper Chinese electric vehicle options like BYD have surpassed Tesla in production.

The Ministry of Transport & Logistics (MoTL) reported 100,000 EVs in Ethiopia by 2024.

Birhanu Kebede, CEO of Humbd Trading, said the high cost of fuel has boosted EV demand. Last year, Humbd imported 150 EVs, with plans to import 200 this year. The company supplies three EV models, offers 50pc bank loan facilitation, and is Ethiopia’s largest spare parts supplier as a chartered distributor for China’s Yutong Bus.

Brook Aweke, a land transport expert, says that most assemblers rely on semi-knockdown (SKD) assembly, contributing little to value addition. He criticised the lack of partnerships between Ethiopian assemblers and original manufacturers, such as Toyota, which would enable access to spare parts production and technical support.

7,380,000

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An undisbursed balance in the US Dollar from external loan commitments as of June 2024, with 77.6pc of this from federal government loans. A large part of these balances is tied to multilateral creditors like IDA (2.64 billion dollars) and Chinese lenders (2.23 billion dollars).

 

“Sit down; solve your problems.”

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Kebede Regassa (B. General), commandant of the Ethiopian Defence University, last week urged political leaders of every persuasion to engage in a national dialogue to resolve their differences. Addressing Parliamentarians, he pledged loyalty “to the people and the constitution,” and called for a unified approach to bridge the country’s political divides.

DELIVERING HOPE

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A young man sits on an Isuzu truck delivering Ambo carbonated water and Coca Cola soft drinks to clients in the Gotera area. The transport sector, which involves many youth, creates numerous informal job opportunities. The ILO estimates that 31pc of employees are in the service sector. According to 2022 data from the Ethiopian Statistics Service (ESS), youth unemployment rate in urban areas stood at 27.2pc, one of the highest in Africa.

 

BOOKSTORE REVAMP

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This long-lived building is a branch of Mega Books, after a recent revamp in line with corridor development projects around Arat Kilo. Established in 2007, Mega Publishing & Distribution has 32 branches including this which has been under renovation for five months. Since its establishment, the company has published and distributed several supplementary educational materials for primary and secondary education, adult reference materials, nonfiction books, and other literary works.