Brewed Buck Looks Steady, But Banks Signal Dollar Stress

May 17 , 2026.

The Birr’s (Brewed Buck) official cash market looked calm through Saturday, May 16, 2026.

But the calm was administrative, not market-driven. With the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) absent from auctions for months, commercial banks made marginal changes to posted rates. Most preserved the two percent spread between buying and selling quotes, leaving the forex market appearing stable while revealing a split between immobile banks, micro-adjusters and premium posters whose rates implied aggressive forex mobilisation and balance-sheet pressure.

Over the week, the average commercial-bank buying rate, excluding the Central Bank, was 154.42 Br per dollar, while the selling rate averaged 157.51 Br. Including the Central Bank, the buying average was 154.52 Br, with the selling average unchanged at 157.51 Br. From May 11 to May 16, commercial-bank buying increased by 0.1255 Br, while selling increased by 0.1277 Br. In daily terms, buying moved from 154.38 Br to 154.50 Br, and selling from 157.46 Br to 157.59 Br. As a percentage move, the change was negligible.

However, the averages concealed the market shape. Low or frozen quotes held the centre down, while premium posters pulled the high end. Oromia, Zemen, Hibret and, intermittently, Berhan banks occupied the upper side. Nib was the lowest-quoted bank through May 13, before Hijra Bank became the floor from May 14 to May 16. By Saturday, the gap between the highest and lowest commercial buying quotes was nearly 3.79 Br, a distance that in an efficient market would invite arbitrage.

In the domestic forex market, it is more likely to be exposed to rationing, relationship pricing, non-price allocation and compliance limits.

Oromia Bank remained the clearest high-side outlier. On May 16, it posted 157.6 Br for buying and 160.75 Br for selling, the highest commercial quote on both sides. Its buying rate was 3.78 Br above Hijra Bank’s 153.82 Br, the lowest commercial buying quote. The selling gap between Oromia and Hijra banks reached 3.86 Br. In a market where the spread is usually two percent, that distance was wide. Oromia Bank’s buying rate was more than four standard deviations above the commercial-bank average. Yet its spread stayed at two percent, making the quote level, not the margin, the anomaly.

The floor shifted in the opposite direction. NIB held the lowest quote from May 11 to May 13, at 153.13 Br buying and 156.2 Br selling. Hijra Bank then became the lowest poster, holding at 153.82 Br buying and 156.89 Br selling from May 14 to May 16. The Central Bank’s quote complicated the picture, after posting 157.43 Br on May 16, using the same figure for buying and selling, implying a zero spread. That makes it unlike commercial banks and unsuitable for retail comparison. Even so, the Central Bank’s buying rate was 3.61 Br above Hijra Bank’s lowest quote and about 17 cents below Oromia Bank’s top buying rate, placing the reference rate closer to the premium end than to the commercial-bank centre.

The state-owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) remained on the low side. Its buying rate increased from 153.71 Br on May 11 to 153.96 Br on May 16, while its selling rate moved from 156.79 Br to 157.04 Br. The six-day buying increase of 25 cents exceeded the adjustments at the Awash, Abyssinia, and Zemen banks, but the CBE still ended below the commercial average. The comparison is incomplete because CBE, like some competitors, uses top-up bonuses for dollar purchases; the market rate can understate the effective price paid.

Among large private banks, movements were incremental. Awash Bank increased its buying quote from 154.17 Br to 154.20 Br and its selling quote from 157.26 Br to 157.29 Br. Abyssinia Bank jumped from 154.46 Br to 154.5 Br on buying, while selling moved from 157.55 to 157.59 Br. Zemen Bank, among the higher private-bank posters outside Oromia Bank, edged from 155.54 to 155.56 Br on buying and from 158.65 to 158.67 Br on selling. These were maintenance moves, preserving relative positions and the two percent spread.

Wegagen and Dashen represented the static bloc. Wegagen held at 154.59 Br buying and 157.68 Br selling throughout the week. Dashen Bank stayed at 153.99 Br for buying and 157.06 Br for selling, while Amhara Bank, Development Bank of Ethiopia (DBE), Gadaa, Goh Betoch, Global Bank Ethiopia, and Hijra Bank also kept their rates unchanged. A wider group, including Awash, Abyssinia, Ahadu, Bunna, Coop Bank, Sidama, Siket, Siinqee, ZamZam and Zemen, behaved as micro-crawlers, making tiny adjustments while staying near the industry centre.

A third group made step adjustments. CBE crawled higher daily, adding 25 cents on buying. Nib moved from the market floor of 153.13 Br to 153.92 Br, a rise of 78.45 cents, while remaining among the lower posters by May 16. Tsedey Bank increased by 25.15 cents on buying and 24.63 cents on selling. It increased by 30 cents on the buy and 30.6 cents on the sell. Enat Bank added 12.93 cents, signs of discrete corrections, not evidence of broad volatility.

Hibret Bank was the sharpest step-adjustment outlier. Its quote jumped from 154.08 Br buying and 157.16 Br selling on May 11 to 155.63 Br and 158.74 Br by May 16. The jump, 1.54 Br on buying and 1.57 Br on selling, was the largest six-day increase among commercial banks. Because the spread stayed at two percent, the move was a parallel upward reset.

Berhan Bank was the most problematic outlier. Its ordinary quote was 154.87 Br buying and 157.96 Br selling. On May 12, however, it posted 156.87 Br buying while selling remained 157.96 Br, compressing the spread to 0.70pc. On May 15, selling jumped to 160.96 Br while buying stayed at 154.87 Br, widening the spread to 3.94pc. Both deviations broke the dominant two percent pattern.

The broader story is not a weakening teh Brewed Buck. It is a managed market with little movement and deeper divergence. The average barely moved, and Oromia Bank, Dashen, and Wegagen banks maintained their prior-week positions. Yet the market showed pressure, with premium posters sitting above the industry average to attract dollars. Low posters relied on bonuses or captive flows. The Central Bank stood near the premium end, while the absence of its auctions removed price discovery.

Stability in posted rates did not prove a balance between demand and supply. When prices barely move despite months without auctions, adjustments often appear elsewhere, including waiting times, allocation rules, letters of credit, bonuses, and the gap between official availability and private demand. Last week too showed a market calm on the surface, but segmented underneath and reliant on non-price mechanisms to reconcile a steady Brewed Buck with scarce Green Buck.

PUBLISHED ON May 17,2026 [ VOL 27 , NO 1359]