Brewed Buck Glides Lower in Stage-Managed Move as Dollar Stays Unruffled

Aug 10 , 2025.

The Birr (Brewed Buck) spent last week edging lower against the Dollar (Green Buck) in a controlled and policy-led fashion, and one moment set the tone. The National Bank of Ethiopia’s (NBE) foreign-exchange auction on August 5, 2025, did most of the heavy lifting.

Across the full panel of banks, the average buying rate over the six days was roughly 136.29 Br to a dollar, while the corresponding average selling rate was about 138.95 Br. Price discovery was narrow for most banks, although a handful of them provided the movement that mattered. Their prints shaped the tape more than the headline averages showed.

The state-owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) set the floor every day, reclaiming its habitual position as the cheapest counterparty on both sides of the screen. Its buying quote held at 134.45 Br and its selling quote at 137.14 Br throughout the week, effectively anchoring the corridor and offering a reference point for best execution.

At the other end, Oromia Bank finished the week as the most aggressive buyer at 139 Br to the dollar on Saturday, only marginally ahead of the Central Bank’s cash-market buy quote near 138.92 Br. On selling, Oromia also sat at the top of the range for most of the week, peaking above 141 Br, while CBE remained consistently low.

Five banks carried most of the motion in the standard deviation of daily changes. Oromia Bank at about 2.29 Br, Berhan at about 1.91 Br, Siinqee around 0.65 Br, Zemen near 0.57 Br, and Wegagen roughly 0.49 Br. Everyone else clustered below about 0.45 Br. From August 8 to August 9, Siinqee gained 1.50 Br, Wegagen 1.13 Br, Gadaa 0.80 Br, Berhan 0.73 Br, and Goh Betoch 0.70 Br.

A cluster of banks, including the CBE, Dashen, Global, and Hijira, posted identical buying rates all week, signalling that it was an administered and orderly week rather than a volatile one.

Oromia Bank was the swing name. Its buying quote fell from 138.64 Br on Monday to 135.64 Br on Tuesday, then rebounded to 139.10 Br on Wednesday and stayed elevated. Such a V-shaped move against an otherwise quiet tape unveiled a transient pricing or data-capture issue midweek, or a one-off liquidity adjustment, rather than a broad market signal.

Berhan Bank remained stable at 132.47 Br through Wednesday, then jumped to 136.87 Br on Thursday and 137.60 Br on Saturday, indicating a late-week reset that appeared to be a repricing of the pack after several days of lagging behind peers. Siinqee was quiet until Thursday, nudged up on Friday, then posted the single most considerable one-day change with a 1.50 Br rise on Saturday to 136.93 Br.

Wegagen Bank showed a steady upward bias that culminated in a 1.13 Br increase on Saturday to 137.60 Br, more a directional grind than a shock. The median bank moved within a narrow corridor from day to day; outliers explained most of the variance.

The Central Bank conducted nine auctions during the period, with amounts ranging from 40 million dollars to 150 million dollars. The clearing rates in Birr for a dollar show two distinct phases. From February 25, at 135.61 Br, to June 19, at 136.62 Br, the rate moved within a narrow one percent range, revealing a controlled and gradual depreciation.

Auction sizes during this phase were held at 50 million to 70 million dollars, revealing that Governor Mamo Mehiretu was in maintenance mode, satisfying commercial bank demand without signalling policy shifts.

On August 5, he broke formation, demonstrating the Central Bank’s firepower with 150 million dollars on auction, the largest to date, which dwarfed the 50 million dollars average. At a weighted average of 138.25 Br to a dollar, no less than 28 banks bid. The combination of a higher price and a larger allocation is rare for the bank, as it represents a controlled realignment to bring the official auction rate closer to parallel-market conditions.

The auction landed two days before the August 7 cash-market data in which several banks, Siinqee, Wegagen, Gadaa, and Goh Betoch among them, showed notable increases. That sequence revealed a pass-through from the auction to retail buying quotes with a one- to two-day lag. The auction rate last week also matched closely with the median buying rate in that day’s cash summary, where many banks sat in the 136 Br to 138 Br range.

The parallel market complicated the backdrop. Reports of the segment clearing above 170 Br to a dollar last week threatened to unmoor expectations.

The Governor’s warning of confiscations in illicit trade, paired with the display of “firepower” in the auction room and public statements from CBE and Awash that they held ample stock, targeted at compressing that premium without triggering panic. Governor Mamo’s assertion that reserves are at a “high,” without disclosing the volume, delivered the intended signal, even if it left transparency-minded dealers wanting more detail.

The practical read-through for users of dollars is straightforward. A larger and higher-priced auction raises the wholesale cost base, and banks that price off auction liquidity are nudged to increase their retail quotes, especially for cash and small tickets. That is what the final-day tape showed.

Banks that had been sitting below the pack, most visibly Siinqee, Wegagen, Gadaa, Berhan, and Goh Betoch, repriced into the weekend. Many peers stayed flat, unveiling comfortable positions or staggered update cycles rather than stress. Others, such as CBE, Dashen, Global, and Hijira, held their lines and provided reference points for lower rates.

Two outliers deserve attention next week.

Oromia Bank delivered the most erratic tape, with a Tuesday trough and snap-back and a brief move to a spread above four percent before returning to the two-point convention. The Central Bank itself posted non-standard spreads (zero on several days, around 1.24pc on Thursday, and near zero again on Friday and Saturday), an uncommon profile that showed its policy role rather than a commercial pricing posturing, but one that bears watching if it persists.

PUBLISHED ON Aug 10,2025 [ VOL 26 , NO 1319]