Addis Abeba’s Grand Plan to Outsmart Its Own Chaos

Officials of the Addis Abeba City Administration are advancing a series of ambitious urban development initiatives, aspiring to transform the city into a “smart city,” a vision championed by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD). The structural development studies are slated for completion by the end of May.

The city’s authorities have temporarily banned issuing new building permits and land-related administrative services for the past month in districts such as Bole, Nifas Silk Laphto, Qirkos, and Yeka. It is part of a city-wide measure “to ensure that new constructions align with the city’s comprehensive development plans, avoiding disputes with upcoming projects.”

The initiative, guided by the city’s Plan & Development Commission under the leadership of Commissioner Dadi Wedajo, involves extensive collaboration with local universities. Civil Service and Addis Abeba universities have been tasked with studying corridor development and Local Development Plans (LDP), respectively, reflecting a growing trend of integrating academic expertise in urban planning.

A notable component of the large-scale planning effort is the corridor development project that stretches 89hct from the Atlas Hotel through Edna Mall and Adey Abeba Stadium along Namibia to Djibouti streets. Another significant area under study is the 61.2hct expanse from the Capital Hotel to the Lem Hotel along Haile Gebresilassie Road to Equatorial Guinea Street. The studies hope to reshape these corridors into more pedestrian-friendly and economically vibrant areas.

The LDPs, on the other hand, cover various areas of the city, including the 52hct zone in the neighbourhood where the African Union (Au) is headquartered and a 137hct land in Woreda 01 near the Jemo Three area. The plans could propose new urban solutions such as car-free neighbourhoods, designated parking areas, expanded pedestrian and bicycle lanes, and residential, commercial, and recreational zone integration.

“Such comprehensive planning could transform the city’s landscape to accommodate its burgeoning population while maintaining green spaces,’ said Yirsaw Zegeye, an urban planner from Bahir Dar University.

According to Yirsaw, while modernising urban areas with existing populations might be costlier in the short term, the long-term benefits of well-planned urban environments far outweigh these initial costs.

“These plans should prioritise the immediate needs of the residents,” he said, echoing the sentiment of the city’s developmental ethos.

The Civil Service University, also involved in the corridor development study, has been allocated nearly six million Birr for its research efforts. Daniel Alaro (PhD), a lecturer and study team member, shared insights into the objectives of these studies.

“The city’s general infrastructure has been randomly scattered until now,” he said.

He urged for a more organised and integrated approach to urban development, disclosing that the study would address various critical issues, including the potential demolition of “substandard housing” and ensuring compensation for affected property owners.

“It’ll be a human-oriented approach,” Deribo told Fortune.

Prime Minister Abiy has often expressed his vision for “a greener, smarter, and more eco-friendly” Addis Abeba. Over the past two months, the city has been actively engaged in five corridor projects spanning 10Km and covering 47.5hct. The projects have involved massive resettlement and demolitions to make way for road infrastructure expansions, including increased pedestrian pathways and bicycle lanes.

Fekre Desalegn (Prof), the University’s president and brother of former Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, revealed that the corridor studies are conducted by a multidisciplinary team of sociologists, economists, and urban planners. The team’s experience with land use plans in other towns such as Asosa, Komobolcha, and Dilla towns, as well as another corridor around the Shiromeda area, has equipped them with the requisite skills for this expansive project.

“This is why we’ve been selected,” said Fekre, attributing it to the university’s track record.

Students and teachers from Addis Abeba Science & Technology University are contributing to the LDP studies. They have undertaken a grassroots approach, going door-to-door to assess infrastructure, land use, traffic flow, and utility access, following the standards outlined in the master plan.

Atnafu Morca, head of environmental development and planning at the Commission, believes that the LDP is a crucial tool in implementing the city’s structural plan, conceived nearly seven years ago. At that time, the estimated budget for implementing the plan was around 887 billion Br.

The Ministry of Urban Development & Construction had released a manual in 2019 for preparing and implementing Neighborhood Development Plans (NDP), a document designed to bridge the gap between broad structural plans and localised, functional and livable neighbourhood plans. It stressed the importance of community involvement in the planning process, advocating for a collaborative approach that ensures the plans reflect the aspirations and needs of residents.

The manual also addresses the integration of urban planning with broader national policies and strategies, which is thought to be crucial for ensuring that urban planning contributes to holistic national development. The historical context of Addis Abeba’s urban development also provides a backdrop to these new initiatives.

The city has evolved significantly since its establishment in 1886, undergoing various transformations from the era of Italian occupation, which introduced modern municipal services, to the post-1991 period marked by private sector involvement and foreign investment. These changes have expanded the city’s infrastructure and adjusted its socio-economic structures. The current planning is informed by history, addressing the shortcomings of previous plans and aligning with global practices in sustainable development and improved governance.

According to Atnafu, the decision to pause new permits is a precautionary measure to prevent additional costs that may arise from projects conflicting with the new plan during its implementation phase.

“The pause is part of a broader effort to ensure that development is sustainable and in line with the city’s long-term goals,” he told Fortune.

The study areas include large population settlements, such as the 6,000 people near Qera Abbatoirs Enterprise in Woreda Five and over 8,000 people in Woreda One around the Jemo Three area.  According to Atnafu, the project in the Jemo area serves as a vital strategy to address essential community needs while relieving pressure from the inner city. He said the decision to pause issuing new permits aims to prevent additional costs that may arise from projects conflicting with the new plan during implementation.

“It’s a precautionary measure,” Atnafu told Fortune.

Mesfin Alemu is the architect and urban planner in charge of the two teams conducting the LDP studies. The team also conducted two previous studies for the areas from Qera to Bulgaria and Gojam Berenda in Addis Ketema District last year. He observed that the main impediments for the nearly 180-member teams have been the lack of cooperation from residents unwilling to share information about their living status, income and family structure.

“The area behind the AU is a slum,” Mesfin told Fortune. “It lacks adequate utilities and infrastructure.”

Mesfin disclosed that the houses near AU were constructed before the 1970s and lacked the basic amenities necessary to serve the residents. They are characterised by horizontal sprawl rather than vertical construction that can accommodate a larger population. Mesfin disclosed that after the study is completed, the LDPs will serve as a blueprint for subsequent development projects in the area once they pass through the regulatory grill.

“How to attain a compact and smart city is the purpose of the study,” he said.

Abundance Ignored, Quality in Peril

 

A downturn in demand from the cement manufacturing sector has resulted in an unforeseen surplus of coal in Oromia Regional State, leaving miners with 125,000tns awaiting buyers. It has prompted the officials at the Oroma Mineral Development Authority to step in. They have been actively corresponding with the Ministry of Mines and cement manufacturers, pleading with them to procure their coal inputs within the regional state.

Abdulaziz Dawd (PhD), head of the Oromia President’s Office secretariat, has issued a letter to cement manufacturers, requesting their assistance in establishing a market linkage with local miners, as part of the government’s import substitution strategy.

According to Gari Tesfaye, a licensing department expert at the Authority, allocating foreign currency to cement manufacturers last year contradicted the import substitution strategy. While acknowledging quality issues, he believes that local suppliers should be capable of meeting the entire coal demand.

“Most of them entered the business to supply the factories,” he said.

Former Minister of Mines Takele Uma, had plans to entirely replace coal imports for cement production with local supply, progressively increasing its use in factories. Gari said that miners have permanently repurposed their former farmlands to cater to the needs of the 10 cement manufacturers in the region. However, he observed that manufacturers prefer to purchase from other regional states, citing concerns over its poor quality.

He is concerned over the regional government’s declining royalty revenues, as it has only managed to collect 37.6 million Br in the nine months of the fiscal year, falling short of the annual 176 million Br target, derived from the four percent collected on each ton of coal.

“They may have ulterior, perhaps political motives,” said Gari.

The state-owned Ethiopian Petroleum Enterprise has procured 300,000tns of coal from abroad this year, serving as the sole entity mandated to import on behalf of cement manufacturers. The remainder of the 1.7 million tons demanded by the industry are supplied by domestic miners.

A study conducted by experts from the Geological Survey & Conformity Assessment Agency (GSCAA), which sampled coal from Oromia, South Western, Southern, and Benishangul Regional States, revealed that Ethiopian coal boasts a high energy content of 5,500 calories a unit. However, concerns persist within the cement industry on both the high impurity content and security issues surrounding its logistics.

One of the largest cement manufacturers in the country, Mugher Cement is found within the regional state, 90Km outside the capital. The state-owned enterprise, which produced approximately 5.6 million quintals of cement last year, obtained 246,506tns of coal from local suppliers and imported 64,925tns.

CEO Gezahegn Dechassa acknowledges that the majority of supply makes its way from the Southern Regional State due to better quality and fewer security concerns. However, the entire procurement process hinges on the quality and price of coal, with suppliers selected based solely on product type and energy content, according to Gezahegn.

“Whatever is mined not necessarily be procured by the factories,” he said.

Ethiopia’s estimated 600 million tons of coal deposits have failed to meet local demand since exploration began in the 1940s. Mining Minister Habtamu Tegegn has taken proactive steps to address this issue by engaging in extensive discussions with the CEOs of the 12 operational cement manufacturers over three months. The aim was to gather feedback on the national strategy to replace imports with high-quality local supply.

The Ministry remains steadfast in replacing coal imports with local supply. Some officials are scheduled to visit India in the coming weeks to gain insights into the coal industry.

 

According to Bisrat Kebede (PhD), director of the Mineral Industry Development Institute, regional mining bureaus have contributed to developing the strategy. He said that local coal deposits generally boast a higher calorie content but are compromised by poor technology.

“The strategy will address creating capable, technology-equipped companies and establishing sustainable market chains,” he said.

The abundance of coal discovered through shallow surface-level digging is indicative of Ethiopia’s substantial potential in the coal industry, according to Bisrat. However, the expert disagrees. According to Solomon Mewa, who has worked for the Assessment Agency for three decades, low-quality coal due to the high likelihood of impurities is mixed into the mineral when extracted from surface-level explorations.

“There is a serious gap in industry knowledge,” Solomon told Fortune.

For Solomon shallow digging practices are the primary impediments to the coal industry’s growth. He believes the primitive mining techniques pose a risk of environmental pollution and will inevitably cause a decline in demand. He recommends an introduction of technology before major policy changes.

Out of the 378 small-scale miners holding licenses nationwide, only 40 are actively engaged in mining operations, amidst the suspension of new permits over the past two months.

Abdi Abdurahman Nur, leader of a coal miners’ association comprising 117 members, expresses concern over the livelihoods jeopardised by the decline in demand. According to him, they have incurred major excavator rental costs to improve the quality of the coal. Despite obtaining a five-year concessional plot spanning 5.6hct from the regional state, Abdi and his partners in the Jimma zone have only sold 40tns out of the 30,000tns mined.

“We won’t be able to provide for our families at this rate,” he said.

Brains Chart Rebuilding Courses

 

Ethiopia’s parliament established an 18-member think tank focused on addressing the construction industry woes. Under the leadership of Hiyaw Terefe (PhD), the team is entrusted with the responsibility of identifying the construction sector’s most pressing issues and devising practical solutions. This initiative was prompted by a series of four research papers that illuminated issues: the presence of unqualified professionals, the lack of bridge financing, reliance on imported raw materials, and deficiencies in existing laws.

At the launch session in Parliament last week, Tagese Chafo, speaker of the House, Chaltu Sani, minister of Urban & Infrastructure, and Wendimu Seta, state minister, were in attendance. They were joined by leaders from professional associations within the construction sector who presented papers, igniting a lively discussion on possible courses and strategies.

Esayas Gebreyohannes (PhD), a researcher involved in one of the papers and a member of the newly formed team, outdated construction standards on infrastructure projects have detrimental impacts. He said a 14-year-old building standard that persisted long after European countries had abandoned it, is exacerbating the design and construction defects.

Esayas urges lawmakers to craft contemporary regulatory standards, considering the ambitious projects outlined in the 10-year national strategy, including the construction of airports, millions of homes, and extensive roads. He called for the development of multipurpose water infrastructure projects to address scarcity.

He recommends conducting proper audits of road infrastructures, independent design reviews, contractor accountability, and incentivising the use of locally sourced construction inputs for long-term sustainability in the construction sector.

Ethiopia’s construction sector has been on a steady upward trajectory for nearly two decades. It accounts for a quarter of the GDP while relying on imports for nearly a third of its inputs. However double-digit inflation over the past few years and an austere monetary policy cutting back on capital expenditures has weighed heavily on the industry.

The failures of the construction industry stem from a complex array of limitations beyond individual contractor shortcomings. Another member of the think tank, Wubishet Jekale (PhD) is a lecturer at Addis Abeba University and general manager of Jekale CM Consultancy (JCMC). His research identified a concerning trend for over eight years: a steady decline in yearly growth coupled with a gradual decrease in the frequency of new project announcements.

One of the key factors, according to the study, is the sector’s heavy reliance on imported inputs, which is further compounded by foreign currency shortages. Contractors are failing to complete projects due to price variations and security concerns, leaving employers with unfinished projects and banks compelled to settle them with payment guarantees.

“It has created an interlinked systemic bottleneck,” he said.

Wubishet outlined weaknesses in contract administration, which fail to address the unpredictability of prices or the interests of employers.  He recommends exploring alternative solutions where funds are voluntarily extended to cover damages or unforeseen project changes, even when not legally obligated.

Following the presentation of the papers, a panel discussion moderated by the speaker of the house ignited a lively discussion on possible courses and strategies.

Wendemu Seta, state minister for Urban & Infrastructure, said government contracts lack procurement procedures capable of attracting quality professionals. He said the approach towards giving out contracts to whoever brings the lowest price is unsuitable for the sector.

“Practical training is also necessary,” he said.

The introduction of road funds and wider application of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) models were also raised. Getahun Tagesee, president of the Water Related Works Construction Contractors Association, suggested that despite intense price fluctuations during project cycles, they have never received a penny. He recalled an incident in which an initially 180 million Br project ballooned to nearly five times the amount after the client declined to adjust the terms with an additional 30 million Br.

“The industry has a primitive procurement culture,” he said.

Some industry players suggested that it also has poor professional standards. Architects like Habtamu Getachew, who represented the Association of Ethiopian Architects, called for contemporary laws targeting professions already practised in several other countries.

“Everyone working is not a professional,” he said.

Dawud Orgecho’s presentation, “Looking Beyond the Challenges,” echoed this sentiment. which highlighted the lack of research-based diagnosis of project delays and problems. He stated that the poor adoption of laws and regulations to oversee professionals undermined the sector’s ability to create job opportunities and mobilise finance.

A ‘mother law’ to oversee the construction industry is currently being drafted at the Ministry of Urban & Instracture which the officials expect to address major regulatory hurdles faced by the industry.

Minister Chaltu suggested that the massive inflation of construction inputs partly arose from the sector’s stellar growth while acknowledging the need to develop better standards for construction procurements. Meanwhile, House Speaker Tagesse instructed the Ministry to begin drafting legal frameworks for the operations of more think-thank groups. However, some industry observers are not quite convinced of the positive prospects.

While acknowledging the value of think tanks, Haben Abraha, a contractor and industry veteran, believes that the pervasive issues stem from deeply ingrained structures that cannot be resolved by that alone. He said that academic groups, disconnected from the realities of those working on the ground, may struggle to generate tangible solutions.

“Structural policy bottlenecks and inflation are the primary issues,” he said.

Manufacturers Cry Out on Taxing Wheat Prices

Manufacturers of biscuits, noodles, and animal feed are sounding the alarm, urging policymakers to intervene on the impacts of escalating wheat prices. VAT requirements, soaring production costs, and plummeting sales were cited as struggles in the plea submitted to the Ministry of Finance months ago, shedding light on the broader manufacturing woes.

The Ethiopian Millers Association has issued a warning, stressing that the survival of many of its 200 members hangs in the balance without prompt action. Tedla HaileGiorgis, president of the Association and head of Chilalo Food Complex, argues that biscuits and noodles constitute an essential source of daily sustenance for a significant portion of the community.

“They are not luxury items”, he told Fortune.

The “Ok” brand biscuit and noodle manufacturer said the crippling effect of skyrocketing input prices is evident, particularly for wheat. He warns that the tax burden could spell widespread closures for many factories, with some already teetering on the edge.

Nearly 30 biscuit manufacturers and three major noodle manufacturers are struggling. Notable companies like Sawaya Food Manufacturing Plc with known brands like “Indomi” and Prima Food Processing Plc with “Prima Biscuit”  are among those faced with the price hike.

Khalid Omer, CEO of Omer Biscuits, based in Sheggar City, has been tirelessly advocating for VAT reduction, citing the doubling of essential input costs like flour to 8,000 Br a quintal since last year, alongside rising sugar prices. His company, boasting a daily production capacity of 800 cartons of biscuits, relies heavily on markets in Amhara and Oromia regional states, both of which are grappling with security issues.

“Rising costs and security issues are squeezing our profits,” he told Fortune.

These urgent calls for intervention coincide with the government’s revision of the two-decade-old Value Added Tax (VAT) proclamation, which last year included 15pc tax exemptions on previously taxed products like wheat flour, spaghetti, and macaroni to combat inflation. The proclamation made its way to parliament a month ago after receiving a nod from the Council of Ministers, while exemptions on the three items were ushered in through a letter last year.

However, officials from the Ministry of Finance question whether previous tax exemptions have effectively mitigated inflationary pressures. Zelalem Abate, a public relations expert at the Ministry, underscores the need for a careful assessment of the manufacturers’ concerns to avoid unnecessary burdens on consumers.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Industry acknowledges some concerns raised by noodle manufacturers. Habtamu Taye, head of the Ministry’s Food & Beverage Desk, argues that noodles are a vital food staple for many low-income households, contrary to being perceived as a luxury item.

“We’re prepared to present our assessments,” Habtamu told Fortune.

However, he contends that biscuits lack sufficient justification for VAT reduction, citing their less essential economic contribution.

The animal feed sector, reliant on wheat byproducts, faces its own taxes following VAT waivers last year. Despite assurances of refunds, Abraham Negash, general manager of Dina Animal Feed Processing, said the burden on production capacities amid wheat shortages and price hikes was impactful.

“The taxes have only complicated matters,” Abraham told Fortune.

Martha Zewdu, a senior tax expert at the Revenues Ministry, defends the receivables mechanism, cautioning against potential tax evasion loopholes.

Ethiopia’s federal government is aiming to raise close to 477.7 billion Br in domestic revenue this year, with a revised VAT proclamation and expanded excise taxes forming a key part of the strategy. However, concerns have been raised about the potential impact on consumers and businesses.

Tax experts like Ketema Adane question the wisdom of relying heavily on VAT, which can disproportionately burden consumers. He argues for a more thorough analysis of the potential impact of tax policies. Another concern for Ketema is the government’s focus on taxing manufacturers, while sectors like digital marketplaces remain largely untouched. He said this, coupled with a low tax-to-GDP ratio, has led some to believe that Ethiopia lacks a strategic collection plan while widespread corruption and economic difficulties further complicate the situation.

The shortage and high price of wheat hovering around 8,000 Br a quintal exemplify the economic headwinds businesses face. For instance, Lume Adama Flour Factory is operating at a fraction of its capacity due to these factors. It has struggled to adjust to a fifth of its capacity while doubling wheat prices from 3,000 Br a quintal exacerbated the issue, according to Mesfin Eshete, general manager of the plant in Mojo Town, Oromia Regional State.

“This is despite sourcing from 64,000 farmers in a cooperative union,” he said. “Wheat exports might also have something to do with it.”

Wheat production amounted to 164 million quintals last year, with an ambitious target to increase the figure to 200 million this year. Bale Zone in Oromia Regional State has nearly 36,000 farmers busily engaged in wheat production this year on a staggering half a million hectares of land after losing 11pc of the 16 million quintal harvest to untimely rainfall.

Aluye Mohammed, head of the Bale Agriculture Bureau, said heavy rainfall destroyed a share of their hard work last year despite managing to produce half a million quintals for exports. He believes price increments for chemicals and seeds by as much as 30pc have raised the price of wheat.

“Illicit trades to Sudan are also a factor,” he told Fortune.

Farmers such as Mohammed Amin, 45, plough on 10hct plot in Bale Zone and produced 700qtl of wheat last year. He said shortages of agricultural inputs like pesticide chemicals and fertiliser have impacted this year’s harvest by at least 200 quintals. Mohammed also pointed to an increase in the number of pests due to unseasonal rainfall patterns this year.

Officials are optimistic. Esayas Lemma, head of Crop Development at the Agricultural Ministry, said intermediaries and security problems are the only ones disrupting the market chain.

However, economists like Atlaw Alemu (PhD) question the wheat self-sufficiency narrative. He said the observable shortages the manufacturers face tell a completely different story. Atlaw considers the wheat export ambition to be predicated on more political goals rather than sensible economic objectives in a country where millions are on the verge of hunger.

“The country should not be exporting wheat while putting industries at risk,” he told Fortune.

Continental Trade Dreams Pinned on Domestic Reforms

Ethiopia is contested to fully embrace the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) due to slow progress on cross-regional payment systems, potential tax revenue losses, and underdeveloped logistics infrastructure. With preparations underway for the trial period known as the Guided Trade Initiative (GTI), representatives from the Ministry of Trade & Regional Integration (MoTRI), the Ethiopian Customs Commission, commercial banks and private logistics firms, convened to address these lingering impediments last week.

The Ministry of Finance is reviewing a list of 6,475 goods submitted to the secretariat in Accra, Ghana, before forwarding it to the Council of Ministers for approval, marking the initiation of the trial period. Nearly 90pc of items—are poised for zero tariffs, while seven percent are slated for tariff removal over a decade, with 193 goods excluded from preferential free trade.

According to Tages Mulugeta, head of international & regional integration at the Ministry, negotiations over the trade protocols for products have made progress.

“We’ll soon be selecting the participating businesses,” he said.

Ethiopia stands among the nine countries out of 47 that have yet to finalise the approval process within its government, following endorsement from Accra. The rest have commenced trial trading in select commodities such as meat products, flowers, honey, and powdered milk.

Experts like Martha Belete (PhD), a law professor and regional integration consultant, argue that fully benefiting from AfCFTA will require changes within domestic businesses. She points out limited access to finance, widespread corruption, low industrial productivity, and informal business practices as pressing issues that need to be addressed.

“Reliance on primary commodities for exports should also be reduced,” she said.

Martha said potential impacts of Ethiopis’s recent opening of retail, wholesale, import, and export sectors for foreign investors, call for nuanced approaches in how foreign capital engages in AfCFTA.

For Tages, the timeframe for joining depends on reaching agreements on the criteria to determine the national source of textile and automotive products. While the trade official is hopeful about Ethiopia’s potential participation in the Pan African Payment & Settlement System (PAPSS), which is currently integrated into only six countries, a senior official from the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) emphasised the importance of conducting a thorough assessment of the agreement to understand the intricacies of other African economies.

“We can’t blindly get into an agreement,” he told Fortune.

Tages remains optimistic. He believes that without full integration, countries can engage in intracontinental trade through common currencies during the trial period. Managed by the African Export-Import Bank (Afrexim Bank), PAPSS is a two-year-old cross-border financial market infrastructure facilitating payment transactions across Africa.

Six years after the initial agreements, logistical disparities among member countries persist. Elizabeth Getahun, CEO of Panafric Global Logistics, expressed concerns about delayed port clearance and freight forwarding protocols. She noted that while countries like Kenya have made progress in integrating their logistics sectors with others, Ethiopia lags behind.

“Unchecked logistics protocols will hamper our national capabilities,” she said.

Mesfin Tefera, general manager of Weyra Transport Share Company, echoed these concerns, citing Ethiopia’s 123rd ranking in the Global Logistics Index. He said security issues along the Ethio-Djibouti road must be addressed for intercontinental trade to flourish while Ethiopia’s logistics infrastructure is incompatible with neighboring countries like Kenya and Djibouti.

“Expanding railroads and improving road standards is vital,” he said.

Private sector involvement within Customs Commsssion services was mentioned as potential by Abera Abegaz, owner of A.Y Noble Inspection and board member of the Addis Chamber of Commerce & Sectorial Association. Abera cited the dismissal of a UK-based software service provider nearly two decades ago after four years of operation as evidence of the Commission’s monopoly on services.

“Its efficiency could improve by outsourcing certain services,” he said.

Abera said poor quality specifications could have detrimental impact on exports. He observed that commodities are often misidentified as originating from other African countries in international markets.

“Accurate sources of origin are crucial for continental trade,” said Abera.

Customs officials responded that ongoing police reforms aim to raise efficiency and service provision.

Kassaye Ayele, the tariff administration director at the Commissio said the procedures are in a comparatively better position than other African countries. He cited implementation of an electronic cargo traffic management system, border control technology, and online customer service mechanisms as evidence of transformative changes within the Commission.

“We never said there were no problems,” Kassaye said, “but we are addressing them step by step.”

Implementing AfCFTA is estimated to increase real income gains by seven percent by 2035. Kassaye also noted that long-term gains in real income would offset tariff revenue losses in the short run as Ethiopia delves deeper into AfCFTA trading arrangements despite the declining tax-to-GDP ratio.

“We will take an initial hit,” he said, “but our newer taxes will lessen the impact.”

PRINTING PANACEA?

Last week, officials teamed up to lay out a 55 million-dollar industrial security printing plant at Bole Lemi Industrial Park. Partnering with Japanese multinational Toppan Gravity, the plant is expected to embark on passport printing, with over five million passports printed annually at full throttle. A major global printing industry with a 124-year legacy and over 10 billion dollars in annual revenues, Toppan brings its expertise to the project.

In a joint venture formed by Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH), Toppan Gravity, Berhanena Selam Printing Enterprise (BSPE), and Education Materials Production Distribution Enterprise, Toppan Gravity Ethiopia was born to oversee the plant. (Left to Right) Ahmed Shide, minister of Finance; Abdurhman Eid Tahir, CEO of EIH; Mamo Mihretu, governor of National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE); Aklilu Tadesse, CEO of Industrial Park Development Corporation (IPDC); and Lensa Mekonnen, state minister for Tourism; attended the inaugural ceremony.

 

 

Fatal Cracks Expose Addis Abeba’s Underbelly

A group of young boys, dressed in tattered clothing, huddle around a traffic light asking passing drivers for spare change, around the C.M.C. area near the Salite Miheret Church. They are cautious while trying to avoid the attention of nearby police officers.

One of them is Tamrat Kassa, 21, from Kombolcha town, Amhara Regional State. He fled his grandmother’s home, 364Km from the capital, seeking refuge from physical and emotional abuse, hoping for a better life. It has been seven years. Tamrat spent his days collecting recyclable plastic bottles for sale and his nights sleeping on the streets until security forces began cracking down on homelessness about a year ago.

“It feels surreal when the beatings jolt you awake,” Tamrat told Fortune.

About 30 youths aged between 13 and 22, primarily runaway children from Dessie and Kombolcha towns, created a shelter under a crossing bridge in Wereda 7, Bole District, as a refuge from the harsh realities outside. The small, partially dry corner where Tamrat and his friends rested their heads was flooded four weeks ago while 18 of them slept, as heavy rainfall unexpectedly poured through the night.

“I lost 13 friends that night,” he said, tears welling up in his eyes.

However, the Addis Abeba Fire & Disaster Risk Management Commission reported discovering four bodies. Tamrat and the remaining survivors spent the following day searching for their lost companions with no luck. Despite the tragedy of that forsaken night, they continue to sleep in makeshift accommodations with the river flowing beneath them.

“We have nowhere else to go,” Tamrat said. “I can neither read nor write.”

Throughout much of its history, floods during heavy rainfall have been recurring in areas downstream of the seven rivers meandering through Addis Abeba, impacting communities residing along the riverside.

The Sahlitemeret Area, where a tragic accident occurred a few weeks ago, stands as a testament to this reality. A network of tributaries stemming from the Kotebe River winds through mountainous terrain across the Yerer Ber area down to the Aba Samuel dam, nearly 15Km from the Gelan area, passing through several districts along a steep route.

A lifelong resident of the neighbourhood, Tewodros Mamo, 32, attests that all locals are well aware of the tendency for the network of rivers originating from higher plateaus to flood during the winter months.

“We avoid using the bridges,” he said.

Tewodros notes that as more people settled in the area, wooden bridges were replaced with concrete and cement, albeit with a few drowning incidents occurring over the years as individuals attempted to swim.

“No one should be seeking shelter under the bridges,” he said.

Addis Abeba experiences rainfall in two seasons, with the major one occurring between June and September, constituting nearly 70pc of the annual rainfall of about 1,400mm. It has witnessed intense flooding on two notable occasions recorded in history: in 1978, claiming the lives of 12 people and destroying nearly 56 homes, and later in 1994, rendering 3,000 people homeless. These incidents were triggered by an overflow from the Little Akaki and Bantyiketu rivers.

Over successive decades, various government agencies have been tasked with managing flood risks in the capital. Following the 1994 catastrophe, a now-defunct Flood Control & Prevention office was established. It oversaw the construction of crossing bridges and protective walls across most tributaries, although these structures occasionally succumb to overflow.

For the past four years, the Addis Abeba Fire & Disaster Risk Management Commission has distributed a list of high-risk areas to eight government bureaus. Yikfelew Woldemeskel, deputy commissioner and head of the Risk Minimisation Department, identifies the public’s widespread mismanagement of drainage systems as an issue. He said the accumulation of solid waste obstructs passages which exacerbates risks due to settlement patterns in certain areas.

Yikfelew believes the corridor development project is poised to alleviate some of these issues. This ambitious initiative, covering 47.5Km and comprising five corridors, aims to enhance the city’s infrastructure by mitigating risk factors.

He said the 900-member-strong disaster intervention team has been instrumental in rescuing nearly 25 people over the past few weeks. However, Yikfelew denounced a troubling trend in the construction industry: the clandestine dumping of debris and soil into small rivers. He argues that the substantial volumes of solidified construction debris disrupt natural river flow and lead to inundation in neighbouring communities.

“This level of disregard is deeply alarming,” he said. “We’ll hold those responsible accountable.”

The Commission has identified 135 high-risk areas this year and distributed them to different agencies based on their administrative capacities, with 71 locations assigned to the Addis Abeba City Roads Authority (AACRA).

Asnake Adraro (PhD), director of road asset management, disclosed that a citywide campaign to cleanse the drainage system commences a few weeks before winter each year. He said to have discovered debris in the drainage network, from car tyres to plastic bottles and khat.

“It’s not an issue of the network’s capacity,” Asnake said. “Improper waste management is at the core of the problem.”

Asnake observes a concerning practice where toilet facilities are directly connected to the drainage system due to a lack of awareness. He recalled an incident at Mekane Yesus Seminary School, on Guinea Bissau St, where flooding ensued due to the disposal of construction debris into a nearby Akaki River.

“There’s a serious negligence problem,” he said.

Following the Commission’s recommendation, the Authority has initiated the reinforcement of several bridges across the 11 districts and embarked on supervisory visits to drainage systems near riverside settlements as the rainy season approaches. Yinunew Getachew, a Geographic Information System specialist at the Authority, said proper inventory of the drainage network commenced around five years ago. He attributed discrepancies between the drainage network and road infrastructure to the city’s historical road construction practices and inadequate record-keeping.

“There is difficulty in data management,” Yihunew said.

The drainage network, spanning 2,860Km and comprising nearly a third of the road network, is a compilation of data collected by a consultant who departed mid-study four years ago, alongside the Authority’s assessment.

A flood control project, developed in partnership with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) nearly three decades ago when the population was estimated at around 1.8 million, underscores the inevitability of flooding in Addis Abeba without proper protection measures. The plight is concerning given the presence of upper catchment areas at elevations as high as 3,200m.

With the rapid expansion of settlements and population, the study stressed the urgent need for flood protection mechanisms such as retention walls around the eastern part of the Little Akaki and Upper Kebena rivers. The ‘Beautifying Sheger’ project was initiated in 2020 with 60 million dollars funded by the Chinese government. For a 56Km riparian corridor, the project is currently in its second phase under the supervision of the Addis Abeba Urban Beautification & Green Development Bureau. This bureau also shares the responsibility of mitigating floods in high-risk areas as designated by the Commission.

Endesahw Ketma, deputy head of the Bureau, said they are in the process of assessing the details of high flood-risk areas for the year. He said the bureau’s commitment to constructing a 25m buffer around locations near rivers is a preventive measure.

“We won’t be able to address all sites simultaneously,” he told Fortune.

Over the past month, unprecedented heavy rainfall has battered East Africa, leading to devastating floods in Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, and Tanzania, affecting nearly 637,000 people. In Ethiopia, around 70,000 individuals have been impacted in the Somali and Oromia regional states.

To address this pressing issue, the Ministry of Water & Energy, the Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission, and the Ethiopian Meteorology Institute are teaming up on a 300 million-dollar flood management project, funded by the World Bank. Despite these efforts, research conducted by the Woodwell Climate Research Center warns of an increased risk of flooding in Addis Abeba over the next six decades due to climate change and the settlement of nearly 67pc of the population in areas prone to flooding.

Water resource management experts suggest that Addis Abeba’s flooding issues can be effectively managed with more strategic approaches, given the predictable nature of the annual rainfall.

Mamo Kassegn, a hydro-meteorologist with nearly four decades of research on the capital’s water resources, asserts that the increased flooding is primarily a result of land use rather than escalated rainfall due to climate change. He said the expansion of urban settlements has led to the diversion of water, which would have previously evaporated or seeped underground, toward lower elevations.

“Thoughtful urban design could mitigate the extent of damage,” he told Fortune.

While acknowledging the role of clogged drainage networks in exacerbating flooding on main roads, Mamo attributes the surge in incidents to settlements that are incompatible with the intricate network of tributaries.

Addis Abeba’s location at the foot of Entoto mountain, which serves as part of the watershed for the Awash River, along with numerous small tributaries feeding into it, is a perpetual source of flood risk. According to Mamo, implementing a manhole every 200m along main roads, conducting extensive education on proper household waste disposal into drainage systems, and enhancing design standards for the network would alleviate the damage.

“After all, the water needs a place to go,” he said.

BGI Ethiopia Stirs the Pot with Bold Moves, Sour Realities

Herve Milhade, the CEO of BGI Ethiopia, believes he is steering the company toward a more consumer-centric focus. He emphasises that his goal is not to be a leader in paying taxes but to “become the leader in the heart” of consumers. His tenure began as Ethiopia emerged from a bloody and brutal civil war in the North, after the signing of the Pretoria Accord, marking a landmark for the company. Milhade’s appointment coincided with the reopening of BGI Ethiopia’s Raya Brewery in Machew, Tigray Regional State, which had been closed due to the civil war in the North.

Under its French parent company, Castel Group, a stalwart in the African brewery market, the company has seen expansive growth and strategic acquisitions. The Group, a pioneering foreign investor since acquiring St. George, Ethiopia’s oldest brewery, nearly three decades ago, has spent over one billion euros across seven production sites. Its local subsidiary, BGI Ethiopia, is not only one of the notable employers in the economy, with more than 5,000 workers, but also a major taxpayer, contributing billions of Birr annually. The company’s portfolio includes popular brands like Zebidar, Raya, and Meta. It also operates Castel Winery, with a vineyard in Zeway, which was acquired through privatisation in 2012. The winery produces 12,000hctl of wine annually under the Acacia and Rift Valley brands, which complements BGI’s extensive beverage operations.

The company expanded its footprint by acquiring Meta Abo Brewery from the British multinational beverage alcohol company Diageo, cementing its dominance in the beer market, although it has surrendered its market lead to its contender, Heineken Ethiopia. The beer market has been booming but also faced intensifying competition and a shifting regulatory reality. Under Milhade’s watch, BGI focuses on sustainability and reinforces its role as a key economic player. With Meta Abo under its belt, BGI’s production capacity is set to increase from 5.2 million hectoliters to 6.4 million hectoliters. As BGI Ethiopia continues to expand its operations and sharpen its strategies under Milhade’s leadership, the company is determined to reclaim its lead in production and win over the hearts of consumers across Ethiopia and beyond.

In an exclusive interview with Tizita Shewaferaw, our editor-in-chief, Milhade shared his insights on his vision for BGI.

 

Fortune: In the face of pent-up competition from foreign investments and emerging domestic players, how have you been strategising to reclaim your market lead once was BGI-Ethiopia’s forte?

Herve Milhade: We have developed strong products that resonate with consumers. Investing in both production and distribution capacities has been paramount. We have strengthened our brand presence, invested in production tools locally, and optimised our distribution model for efficiency and competitiveness.

Q: Have you overcome constraints in scaling local sourcing? What impact do these programs have on the agricultural sector?

Sourcing raw materials locally, such as malt and maise, is not just our interest — it is also our competitors’. Ensuring the quality of local supplies is crucial, and we have formed strong relationships with our suppliers. However, we recognise the need to invest in and support them to match our production needs. While we are not directly involved in upstream agricultural development, I am open to working with government agencies to have a global outlook and drive positive change in this sector.

Q: What investments and infrastructure upgrades are in store to double production capacity by 2028?

Our ambition is to reclaim market leadership, which is anticipated to experience double-digit growth in the coming years. We aim to double our current production to about 10 million hectolitres. We are investing in our organisation — ensuring we have the right employees with the right skills and behaviour. Through our CSR projects, we plan to extend beyond community initiatives to prioritise the safety of our employees, raise their skills, and provide fair compensation and benefits. Another focus area is the full review of our distribution model. Our products need to be available to all consumers, which requires us to adjust our distribution methods.

The company is committed to investing between 60 million and 100 million euros annually to prepare for this anticipated growth. However, the exact cost of the entire project is difficult to determine at this stage.

Q: What adjustments have you made to your business strategies in response to the recent regulatory changes, such as the increase in excise taxes and restrictions on alcohol advertising?

The excise tax pushes us to localise our supplies. We have always put our energy into localising the brew and packaging. We have adapted our advertising strategies to comply with regulations while maintaining brand visibility.

Q: Would you say it has been a challenge?

Selling beer is always challenging. But the fact that advertising is banned on one medium will not change the whole market because the rules apply to the industry. Through the Ethiopian Brewers Association, we are engaging with the authorities to help us understand the rationale behind and cope with it.

Q: When undergoing a major distribution model change, can you be open about the legal disputes with some of your former agents who are affected? To what degree have the company’s business operations and strategic plans been impacted?

We expanded our network to include more than 100 agents, up from 35. While most embraced this change, some chose not to align with our new direction. It is sad that they left the company after many years and joined the competition. But this is the game, and I accept it. I want to build the most efficient team to ensure that our consumers will find our product affordable and available across the country.

Q: What alternative marketing strategies have you adopted?

We have other ways to reach out to our consumers. We have focused on product quality. If someone loves the product, they are likely to return next time. We also have on-site activations to ensure visibility and engagement tailored to consumers, encompassing regional variations and demographics. Leveraging social media platforms allows us to interact directly with them and build brand affinity.

Q: Do you have any plans for geographic or market segment expansion? How do you balance these growth plans with customer satisfaction?

We are currently focused on consolidating our position in the draught beer market, where we are leading. Then, we will expand our offerings in the bottled beer segment, with plans to invest in packaging and production facilities. We aim to grow strategically while upholding our commitment to customer satisfaction. Over the following years, we will probably heavily invest in Meta, the site we recently acquired. It will become the largest within our organisation. We still have some space to increase production capacity in our sites. But eventually, we will have to start from scratch and build a new plant.

Q: Are there plans to introduce automation in your breweries?

We are exploring the integration of automation into our factories. However, we want to strike a cautious balance between technology and human skills. While automation can streamline simple processes, we recognise the importance of human expertise in certain areas. After all, having the right technology is essential, but it is equally important to have skilled personnel to operate and maintain it effectively.

Q: With a shift in consumer preferences towards premium and draught beers, how are you rebranding product offerings to cater to the evolving market demand?

It is not so much a shift for us as it is a natural market evolution. We adapt to it by introducing various bottled and draught beers, each catering to different market segments with different price points.

Q: How does BGI handle internal organisational adjustments and workforce transitions? I understand there are labour issues here.

We uphold certain principles about employee behaviour. Those who do not align with our values are no longer welcome in the company. We have had to reshape our organisation to suit our future needs better. Some individuals have left the company due to redundancy or misalignment with our future direction, but they have received fair compensation packages.

Q: Considering the recent mandate to relocate major industries from the city centre, what sustainability initiatives have you implemented in brewing processes and supply chain management?

It is understandable and aligns with both environmental and logistical considerations. Operating within the city presents difficulties for neighbouring communities and our water supply needs. Water supply is an issue here; we need much of it to produce beer. We have anticipated this and decided to relocate the whole plant outside the city and operate more sustainably. Our investments in water treatment equipment across all our sites ensure the brewing processes have a minimum environmental impact. We also utilise spent grain as fertiliser for our vineyard.

Q: When you were selling your headquarters building, negotiations with the prospective buyer, Purpose Black Ethiopia, broke down. What went wrong?

Nearly a year ago, Purpose Black showed interest when we were looking for potential buyers for the site [the oldest plant near Mexico Square]. We decided to go with them. I cannot comment on the details, as the court handles that, but I can discuss some principles. BGI Ethiopia is a solid and serious company looking for buyers who can finance the purchase; this was obviously not the case. I hope people will be clever and compliant enough to come back, solve this dispute and continue to grow the business. We are looking for an amicable closure because we are selling this building and need to make it available for those who can buy it.

Q: Are any efforts being made to resolve the conflict outside the courtroom?

If it is possible, this is what I want.

Q: Following the subsequent legal dispute, there were issues of not being transparent about the deal with those impacted directly or indirectly. In the process, your brand’s reputation has been on the line. Would you agree?

Transparency has always been a principle for us. We believe it maintains trust and protects our reputation. We will continue to engage with stakeholders proactively, keeping them informed of developments and addressing any concerns they may have.

Q: Although pioneers in the foreign direct investment front and have been in the market for nearly three decades, the problem of profit repatriation has never been so profound. Do you consider this as your most pressing issue?

The shortage of foreign currency is indeed a critical issue for us. As an expanding business, we require buying raw materials, acquiring technology, and spending on equipment, some of which may need to be imported. The scarcity of foreign currency not only incurs costs but also affects our competitiveness in the market. Ultimately, this impacts consumers as we may not be able to offer products at competitive prices. The government must understand that foreign investors like BGI contribute to the country’s economy. Striking a balance between taxation and facilitating business growth is important. Excessive taxation can hinder investment and ultimately reduce tax revenues. We advocate for reasonable tax policies supporting businesses and the government’s revenue objectives. Achieving this balance will contribute to a thriving economy and sustainable development for all stakeholders.

Q: In the meantime, you have so much profit in Birr in your account whose value is eroding due to runaway inflation and exchange rate changes? Are you not worried?

We focus on using our available funds to continue investing in our growth initiatives. However, from the perspective of foreign investors, there is a level of frustration due to the difficulties in repatriating dividends. This issue needs to be addressed through dialogue with the authorities to ensure a conducive investment environment. We are engaging with relevant stakeholders, including government bodies and industry associations, to advocate for solutions that benefit investors and the country’s development.

Q: Do you find yourself in despair due to the responses from the authorities not coming in time?

While ongoing discussions with authorities and industry stakeholders are promising, tangible progress is yet to be seen. We hope appropriate measures will be taken to address the forex shortages and create a more favourable investment climate.

Q: To what degree have your operations, market, and revenue been impacted by logistical hurdles caused by insecurities in major markets such as Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia regional states?

Whenever we have logistical difficulties with supplies because the area is not secure, we damage the business – because we are not selling ideas, we are selling beers. This is a major concern for us and the investors.

Q: Are there any upcoming new products consumers should expect?

We will surprise the market by offering products that they will love. Our research involves understanding what people want and how they consume it, as well as delivering a relevant portfolio to meet those needs.

 

Museveni Hits Out at World Bank Amid Calls for Economic Revamp

President Yoweri Museveni’s recent remarks at the World Bank summit in Nairobi sharply encapsulate a long-standing debate about the direction of Africa’s economic development. By invoking the term “sustainable underdevelopment,” Museveni shed light on the continent’s struggle against economic models that have historically not served its best interests. This critique points to the deeper issue of economic strategies often externally influenced by institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.

The establishment of the IMF and the World Bank by the victors of the Second World War, led predominantly by the United States, has long been a contentious issue. The Bretton Woods Conference of July 1944 set the stage for this new economic order, establishing a system of fixed exchange rates that effectively placed the U.S. Dollar at the global economy’s centre, linked directly to gold. Other currencies were pegged to the Dollar, embedding an American dominance in global finance.

The implications of this system, which ended when President Richard Nixon decoupled the Dollar from gold in the early 1970s, still resonate today. Despite the collapse of the fixed exchange rate system, the Dollar’s influence continues, underpinning critiques that the Bretton Woods institutions represent a form of modern colonialism. The sentiment is particularly resonant in Africa, where economic policies prescribed by the IMF and the World Bank continue to influence domestic economic strategies.

These institutions have embedded themselves into African countries’ political and economic fabric, coaxing development strategies that do not necessarily conform to their individual needs or contexts. For instance, the enthusiasm of African leaders, including Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD), for endorsements from the IMF and the World Bank about their economic growth, seems misplaced to some observers. These growth reports often contrast with the daily realities of the populations they are meant to depict.

Despite positive growth reports, millions of Ethiopians struggle with necessities—a disparity made apparent by Foreign Minister Taye Astkesellassie’s recent appeals in Geneva for aid to assist millions affected by hunger and conflict.

Museveni’s sermon at the summit reflected an awareness of the philosophical, ideological, and strategic missteps that have historically plagued African economies since the 1960s. He argued, rather forcefully, that only radical changes to these socio-economic policies would establish a sustainable development pathway for the continent.

Indeed, looking at Africa’s vast resources, it possesses over 30pc of the world’s natural reserves. Yet, the continent has not effectively leveraged these resources due to corrupt practices, inadequate political governance, and external economic pressures. These factors contribute to an economic status quo where many countries in Africa remain dependent on the frameworks set by the Bretton Woods agreements, limiting their ability to pursue independent economic policies.

The adherence to economic models promoted by the IMF and World Bank often does not translate into real economic progress or development that reaches the broader population. While political leaders may tout GDP growth figures amplified by these institutions, the lived experiences of their respective citizens often tell a different story. The disconnect feeds into the narrative that international financial institutions, while perhaps well-intentioned, may inadvertently perpetuate economic dependencies that resemble a new form of colonialism.

Corruption, poor governance, and the persistence of conflict are substantial barriers to development that need to be addressed internally within African governments. These internal crises often provide an opening for international bodies to exert influence over domestic policies, further complicating the path to genuine autonomy and sustainable development.

Leaders like Museveni have urged the way forward, which involves reevaluating the economic and political strategies that have guided Africa’s post-independence life. Breaking free from the Bretton Woods institutions’ economic prescriptions will require innovative economic policies and a robust political will. The leaders must commit to long-term strategies prioritising their populations’ welfare over favourable short-term economic reports.

Greater continental integration might strengthen Africa’s path to economic sovereignty. Economic and political collaboration among African countries could provide the collective strength needed to negotiate more favourable terms on the global stage, counterbalance external pressures, and ultimately promote an environment where the continent’s resources are used for its development. While President Museveni’s call for a socio-economic overhaul clearly acknowledges past errors and offers an optimistic roadmap for the future, the real challenge lies in its implementation.

Preserving Literary Treasures One Crime Fiction Masterpiece at a Time

The past holiday weekend had my mind racing back over four decades to the early 80s when watching a TV show was one of the quality time spent with my parents. A particular moment came to mind when anticipation filled the air at home. Every eye in the living room was fixed on the black-and-white 17-inch TV set as the intro music of a hit crime series played. The title of the three-part movie was “Yaltekefele Ida” (Unpaid Debt), starring the then-young virtuoso actress Alemtsehay Wedajo.

At the tender age of six, grasping the hang of the adult world portrayed in the plot was difficult. But, certain scenes remain vivid, like the moment when the heroine pointed a pistol at her pyjama-clad lover, who pleaded for his life. After what felt like an eternity of tension, she fired the shot and fled, completing her vendetta against her unfaithful and abusive partner. The overarching theme of avenging a lifetime of misery stuck with me.

The show became a sensation, rerunning two times due to popular demand on the sole TV station available at the time. Following its success, another gripping series titled “Yeabekyelesh Nuzaze” (Abekeyelsh’s Will) captivated audiences with its tale. I distinctly recall the legendary actor Wogayehu Nigatu’s portrayal of a patient at the Amanuel Hospital, the sole psychiatric institution in Addis Abeba at the time. Both series were adaptations of crime novels penned by the esteemed detective story writer, Yilma Habteyes. A pioneer in Ethiopian crime fiction, he remains unmatched in his field, with 16 novels to his name, 13 of which are detective stories.

These TV adaptations left an indelible mark on my childhood memories. To date, I can visualise scenes from the series with remarkable clarity. My familiarity with Yilma’s works deepened during a school break in my junior high years. A cousin of my father, studying at the university, inadvertently left behind a bag filled with treasures for my burgeoning passion: books. Among them, Yilma Habteyes’ “Delalaw” (The Broker) and “Agatami” (Coincidence) stood out. With the whole winter to myself, I delved into Yilma’s thrilling narratives, captivated by the action and intrigue that held me spellbound until the last page.

Yilma’s life story is intriguing. He was born in 1938 in Addis Abeba, around Ras Desta Damtew Hospital area. Raised in a conservative family, he grew up to embody the quintessential urbanite, shaped by his surroundings in Arada. He attended the Lycée Guébré-Mariam, a renowned French school in the capital, where he rubbed shoulders with contemporaries like Fikru Kidane, who later became a sports journalist and an official in the International Olympic Committee. Yilma’s formative years revolved around the old Piassa area, immersing himself in the era’s zeitgeist. He pursued a laboratory technician course at the Louis Pasteur Institute, a collaborative program between the French and Ethiopian governments.

His professional journey began in Gonder town, Amhara Regional State, where he interned and honed his skills as a laboratory technician. It was during this period that Yilma’s love for literature blossomed, as he devoured works ranging from Shakespeare to Agatha Christie. Little did he know, he would follow in Christie’s footsteps, crafting gripping tales in his native Amharic language. The idea of becoming an author first crossed his mind when a friend praised his eloquent four-page letter, jokingly suggesting he could be a novelist. Taking the jest to heart, Yilma began contributing articles and short stories to magazines. Upon returning to his hometown, he continued his literary pursuits, garnering critical acclaim and cementing his place in Amharic literature.

Literary love transcends the act of reading or writing itself; it becomes a profound connection to the world of imagination and storytelling. For many, diving into a book is not merely an escape from reality but an immersion into new worlds, perspectives, and experiences. This deep emotional attachment to literature can spark a lifelong passion that extends far beyond the pages of any single book.

Exploring literary pursuits may lead to creating them. What starts as a casual hobby—perhaps writing short stories, jotting down poetry, or even just avidly discussing literature with friends—can gradually evolve into a central aspect of our identity. The journey from hobbyist to professional writer or scholar is a profound transformation. What began as a simple love for reading or writing grows into a lifelong commitment to honing one’s craft, exploring new genres, and contributing to the literary world in meaningful ways.

However, even for those who do not pursue writing or academia professionally, the impact of their literary passion can be profound. It shapes the way they view the world, informs their understanding of human nature, and provides solace during difficult times. For some, literature becomes a source of inspiration, guiding their personal and professional endeavours.

Sharing literary passion with others is rewarding. Whether through book clubs, literary events, or online communities, enthusiasts find a sense of belonging and camaraderie among fellow bibliophiles. In essence, the journey from literary love to life’s work is a testament to the transformative power of passion and curiosity. It demonstrates how a simple hobby can evolve into a lifelong pursuit that shapes not only individual lives but also the cultural fabric of society.

The establishment of publishing companies during the 1980s provided a brief respite for Yilma and his fellow writers. The Ethiopian Books Agency, in collaboration with the Oxford Printing Press, facilitated the publication of Yilma’s later works, marking a period of peak production and recognition.

Despite writing over 16 books and selling over 110,000 copies throughout his career spanning half a century, Yilma remained dedicated to his profession as a lab technician until retirement. He always maintained that his writing stemmed from passion rather than financial gain, lamenting the nascent reading culture in Ethiopia that deterred many writers and publishers from pursuing their craft wholeheartedly. His commitment to literature mirrored that of Anton Chekhov, who famously described medicine as his “lawful wife” and literature as his “mistress.”

Yilma’s legacy as a master of crime fiction remains unmatched, yet he was not adequately rewarded financially for his contributions. His modest lifestyle was supported by a meagre state pension and minimal proceeds from his literature. But he continued to write passionately until his passing in 2017 at the age of 79. His works face the threat of obscurity, as his books become increasingly scarce.

I believe his crime novels possess the potential to be cinematic blockbusters, provided they receive the treatment they deserve, incorporating authentic narratives and language. The lack of recognition for his work tells the importance of promoting indigenous literature to preserve literary heritages. While foreign adaptations dominate the film industry, original works like Yilma’s languish in obscurity. However, I remain optimistic that such works experience a resurgence, shining brightly once more, as they rightfully should.

Antimicrobial Resistance Quietly Threatens Ethiopia’s Healthcare, Economy

Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) is emerging as a silent crisis in Ethiopia. While striving to improve access to essential medicines, the country has inadvertently neglected a growing threat that could undermine decades of medical gains. Despite the significance of AMR as a global health crisis, health authorities’ response has been tepid, risking severe future repercussions for the healthcare system and economy.

Predictions from various studies suggest that, if unchecked, the AMR crisis could claim 10 million lives annually by 2050 and impose a global economic burden of about 100 trillion dollars. The impact of AMR extends beyond health, affecting socio-economic development across the continent, a risk acknowledged by the African Union (AU) in its endorsement of the African Common Position on Controlling Antimicrobial Resistance.

The stakes are particularly high in Ethiopia, a country with a population of over 100 million and a heavy burden of infectious diseases. However, several factors have constrained its leaders’ efforts to combat AMR.

The Ministry of Health (MoH) introduced a guideline in 2018 to establish an Antimicrobial Stewardship Program in hospitals, yet this program has not been widely implemented. Poor infection prevention practices among healthcare workers and the unregulated over-the-counter prescription of antibiotics continue to aggravate the situation. A considerable proportion of antibiotic prescriptions — up to half, according to some estimates — are unnecessary, uncovering the rampant misuse of these critical drugs.

The economic implications of AMR are also substantial. A study focusing on treating pneumococcal disease in children estimated the annual costs associated with AMR at around 15.8 million dollars. This includes 3.3 million dollars spent on ineffective first-line treatments, an additional 400,000 dollars on second-line treatments, and another 8.9 million dollars lost due to long-term productivity declines.

The national strategy for AMR is underdeveloped, and there is a notable lack of comprehensive data to understand the problem’s magnitude or monitor trends effectively. This data deficiency inhibits making informed decisions and implementing effective interventions.

The federal government has made strides in encouraging the domestic and overseas manufacture of pharmaceuticals, leading to a burgeoning market worth between 400 million dollars and half a billion dollars a year by 2016, growing by a quarter annually. Approximately 12 pharmaceutical companies and about 200 importers of pharmaceutical products and medical consumables were operational. While these efforts have been directed towards improving access to medicines, they inadvertently overlook the critical issue of AMR due to the excessive and inappropriate use of antimicrobials.

Addressing AMR requires various approaches. Gathering and analysing data to grasp the full extent of AMR and track emerging trends is essential. Such data is crucial for tailoring interventions and assessing their effectiveness. Substantial investments are needed to implement antimicrobial stewardship programs effectively. These programs should focus on improving infection prevention practices, updating therapeutic guidelines, enhancing the skills of health professionals, and educating the public about rational drug use.

Regulatory oversight is another critical component. Effective regulation can ensure that policies, strategies, and guidelines are well-crafted and faithfully executed. This includes tightening controls over the prescription of antibiotics in both public and private healthcare settings. The issue of AMR also demands a coordinated response across various sectors, not just the health sector. Federal health officials could prioritise advocacy and engage with other sectors directly impacted to address the AMR crisis comprehensively.

While some may argue that focusing on AMR might divert resources from efforts to achieve universal health coverage, it is essential to recognise that these objectives are not mutually exclusive. Implementing programs to counter AMR can go along with expanding access to healthcare. Indeed, the benefits of antimicrobial stewardship programs, which include preserving the effectiveness of existing drugs and reducing healthcare costs, far outweigh the initial resource allocation required to establish and maintain them.

It should be urgently recognised that Ethiopia faces daunting problems in addressing antimicrobial resistance. This challenge cannot be ignored. Without a meaningful effort to understand and combat AMR, its population risks a consequential setback to its health and economic progress. The time to act is now, with a clear focus on data collection, regulatory enforcement, and multisectoral cooperation to forge a sustainable response to a convoluted global health threat.

 

Fertilisers Will Not Fix Africa’s Food Crisis

The world is confronting an unprecedented food crisis, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s war against Ukraine, and worsening climate conditions. However, the problem is most acute in Africa, where 61pc of the population faced moderate or severe food insecurity in 2022. At a moment when effective solutions are urgently needed, policymakers are once again coalescing around the misguided belief that increased use of mineral and synthetic fertiliser is the key to boosting agricultural productivity and ending hunger on the continent.

This approach can be traced back to the Abuja Declaration on Fertiliser for the Africa Green Revolution that African Union (AU) leaders endorsed in 2006. The goal was to reverse the continent’s poor yields by boosting fertiliser use from eight to 50Kg per hectare within a decade. Spearheading this effort was the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), an initiative backed by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and other major donors. Working closely with large agribusinesses like the Norwegian-based chemical company Yara, AGRA championed the idea that distributing synthetic nitrogen fertiliser would solve Africa’s agricultural challenges.

This singular focus on synthetic fertiliser use has failed to address the complex realities of farming in Africa.

A recent assessment of AGRA’s projects in Burkina Faso and Ghana found no evidence that providing chemical inputs and high-yield seeds increased production and higher incomes for smallholder farmers. Instead, many are now more vulnerable and indebted after coming to rely on expensive synthetic pesticides and fertilisers, the prices of which soared following Russia’s invasion. These farmers have become locked in a cycle of dependency, while companies like Yara reap substantial profits.

Zambia is a good example. Despite being one of Africa’s largest consumers of synthetic nitrogen fertiliser, the country has not experienced a corresponding reduction in hunger and malnutrition. The view that more fertiliser means less hunger fails to address the systemic barriers to food security, such as affordability, and exacerbates existing challenges, such as soil degradation.

Specifically, synthetic nitrogen fertilisers disrupt the delicate balance of the soil ecosystem – the very foundation of sustainable agriculture. These inputs have been shown to reduce the abundance and diversity of beneficial microorganisms, such as mycorrhizal fungi, which are essential for nutrient cycling and plant health. When these symbiotic relationships are disrupted, soil resilience and fertility decline.

According to the World Bank, Africa loses around three percent of its GDP annually due to nutrient depletion and general soil degradation.

Excessive fertiliser use has far-reaching environmental consequences. It undermines crop productivity and thus devastatingly affects millions of smallholder farmers’ livelihoods and food security. It contributes to nitrogen pollution in water bodies, causes biodiversity loss in aquatic systems, and pushes the planet past safe limits for humans. Perhaps most worryingly, research indicates that the production and application of synthetic nitrogen fertiliser account for roughly two percent of total global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

As a result, chemical companies like Yara are switching to “green fertilisers,” which are produced using hydrogen derived from renewable energy sources rather than fossil fuel-based inputs. This allows them to continue advocating for synthetic fertilisers as a solution to food insecurity in Africa (and, by extension, maintaining and expanding the market for their products), even as research points to the shortcomings of such an approach.

Using green hydrogen to produce fertiliser can indeed mitigate GHG emissions. However, while the production process may be less carbon-intensive, it is still highly energy-intensive. Applying fertiliser can release vast surges of nitrous oxide—a potent GHG—into the atmosphere and can still cause soil degradation and water pollution, regardless of how it is produced. By promoting “green fertiliser” as a panacea, the industry is engaging in greenwashing—using the veneer of sustainability to protect its interests.

Last week, the AU’s Africa Fertiliser & Soil Health Summit in Nairobi addressed soil degradation and food insecurity. The involvement of industry giants like Yara and organisations like AGRA suggests continued adherence to a flawed model that has consistently failed to alleviate hunger and malnutrition, a concern shared by the Alliance for Food Sovereignty in Africa, representing more than 200 million stakeholders. But instead of focusing on boosting short-term soil fertility, substituting one chemical with the other, and thus endorsing the fertiliser industry’s self-serving narratives, the summit should have considered longer-term goals, such as improving soil health and soil life, strengthening the resilience of farming communities, and ensuring the sustainability of food systems.

Productivity can be maintained without industrial nitrogen fertilisers, as shown in long-term trials across Africa. Alternatives include diversifying cropping systems, producing organic fertiliser, and planting legumes. Policymakers and stakeholders must move beyond the simplistic promotion of synthetic fertilisers, even those labelled as “green,” and embrace a more transparent and evidence-based approach. Only then can we truly address the root causes of hunger and malnutrition in Africa and worldwide.